Early Commonwealth Cup Speculation
- Thread starter Grendel
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So you think a horse that good should run in a commonwealth trial at 1/3 rather than the Guineas?
Classic 2 quid betting talk.
Classic 2 quid betting talk.
Keep trying Eddie. You talk yourself up but can't see when other people clearly have a much better idea of a good bet than you have.
Belittling other peoples stakes is your only retort.
Sniff my manky ring loser.
Im guessing I lost far more on Calyx in the Guineas than you stand to win for a race he might win in a few months, but thats completely irrelevant. Calyx should have run in the Guineas, its got nothing to do with my bet or your two bob bets, the horse is probably the classiest 3yo in training and today showed he was in fine shape to run. This was looking like the best Guineas for years and most of the big names have now missed it, the others missed it through injury. I said last week they will regret not running in this and today has only confirmed that, he would have had a massive chance and like I said, if you dont stay, drop back to 6f like umpteen top sprinters have over the years.
Bullshit. This thread is about the Commonwealth Cup and who might win it. I don't care how much you lost on another race.
It is not about how much you win or lose. It is about being able to assess races and identify value.
The trainer has said the horse is a sprinter, the jockey has said the horse is a sprinter and even Lord Grimthorpe now says the horse is a sprinter.
Trying to make out you are a better judge because you stake more is nonsense. Trying to suggest that you know better than trainers and jockeys who see the horse every day is classic armchair punter talk.
I had a bet on Calyx for the 2000 Guineas minutes after he won on his debut. The odds then were 25/1 and if he HAD run in the Guineas he would have been my biggest ante-post winner. I felt he was shaping as a Sprinter from the moment he was entered in the Prix Morny, which is a sprinter's race these days. Reading between the lines, Gosden was forced to train Calyx for the St James Palace Stakes even though he felt the horse's best asset was speed.
It is all about putting your opinion forward regarding possible value in a particular race. I took the time to share my thoughts and my logic on why Calyx might be a good bet at 16/1 for the Commonwealth Cup. People are free to follow suit or not because it is a very tough discipline playing really early on races. It would be nice to think that you could get a bit of credit for sharing what looks a sound bet and it is sad to see it run down and rubbished because I didn't have £40,000 on.
Hey ho.
It is not about how much you win or lose. It is about being able to assess races and identify value.
The trainer has said the horse is a sprinter, the jockey has said the horse is a sprinter and even Lord Grimthorpe now says the horse is a sprinter.
Trying to make out you are a better judge because you stake more is nonsense. Trying to suggest that you know better than trainers and jockeys who see the horse every day is classic armchair punter talk.
I had a bet on Calyx for the 2000 Guineas minutes after he won on his debut. The odds then were 25/1 and if he HAD run in the Guineas he would have been my biggest ante-post winner. I felt he was shaping as a Sprinter from the moment he was entered in the Prix Morny, which is a sprinter's race these days. Reading between the lines, Gosden was forced to train Calyx for the St James Palace Stakes even though he felt the horse's best asset was speed.
It is all about putting your opinion forward regarding possible value in a particular race. I took the time to share my thoughts and my logic on why Calyx might be a good bet at 16/1 for the Commonwealth Cup. People are free to follow suit or not because it is a very tough discipline playing really early on races. It would be nice to think that you could get a bit of credit for sharing what looks a sound bet and it is sad to see it run down and rubbished because I didn't have £40,000 on.
Hey ho.
My comments were about Calyx, nothing to do with you or your advice although that appears to be how youve taken it when you said classic sour grapes. I already backed you up as a good judge and someone I like to read during your latest "im leaving the forum" hissy fit when many were against you. It was obvious to me you knew your stuff and im glad you post here, but ive now seen why many had already fallen out with you, good luck with your 2 pound betting, im sure you will be "happy with it" as always, win or lose.
Calyx doesnt owe me anything, but imo a horse with that level of ability should be running in the Guineas instead of a Commonwealth trial.
Calyx doesnt owe me anything, but imo a horse with that level of ability should be running in the Guineas instead of a Commonwealth trial.
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I only had Calyx at 5/2 in the Coventry because Teddy Grimthorpe had said they would probably give him more time and work towards a 7F race with him. As ever, Teddy spoke with forked tongue and they did NOT wait. His next race after the Coventry was talked about as being the Prix Morny and it was also mentioned that they might go to the Middle Park. That was when I started to have concerns as to whether he was a Guineas horse.
The Coventry Stakes is actually a pretty lousy guide for the following year's 2000 Guineas in terms of the same horse winning both races. Stamina is often the clear issue and if I am going to play a Royal Ascot bound colt for the Guineas it is essential to do so before the Coventry because the prices after the Coventry almost always represent awful value.
This weekend should see whether Ten Sovereigns is a danger to Calyx in the Commonwealth Cup. Ryan Moore has sided with him in the Guineas, probably because he doubts Magna Grecia is fast enough. If Ten Sovereign wins or runs close he will surely stay at a mile with the division not strong unless one or two of the crocks return in tip top shape. I think Calyx looks the better prospect of the two as a 3YO in any case.
Sergei Prokofiev is out this weekend in a mediocre looking Palace House. I reckon he lacks the scope of Calyx and would have the Gosden colt superior by 7 lbs and more anyway. I may oppose Sergei on Saturday. For me, it is hard to see anything reaching Calyx's 6F form. The Racing Post only put Calyx up 2 lbs for his comeback win but I feel that was a 125 show, rather than the 118 he was awarded.
The Coventry Stakes is actually a pretty lousy guide for the following year's 2000 Guineas in terms of the same horse winning both races. Stamina is often the clear issue and if I am going to play a Royal Ascot bound colt for the Guineas it is essential to do so before the Coventry because the prices after the Coventry almost always represent awful value.
This weekend should see whether Ten Sovereigns is a danger to Calyx in the Commonwealth Cup. Ryan Moore has sided with him in the Guineas, probably because he doubts Magna Grecia is fast enough. If Ten Sovereign wins or runs close he will surely stay at a mile with the division not strong unless one or two of the crocks return in tip top shape. I think Calyx looks the better prospect of the two as a 3YO in any case.
Sergei Prokofiev is out this weekend in a mediocre looking Palace House. I reckon he lacks the scope of Calyx and would have the Gosden colt superior by 7 lbs and more anyway. I may oppose Sergei on Saturday. For me, it is hard to see anything reaching Calyx's 6F form. The Racing Post only put Calyx up 2 lbs for his comeback win but I feel that was a 125 show, rather than the 118 he was awarded.
This is a really interesting bet you have going here. Not my style as I hate the possibility of not even getting to the post.
I dont know if you will agree but I think this is a big weekend for your bet. If some of these Guineas horses fail to stay, Ten Sovereigns in particular, the obvious target would then be the Commonwealth Cup surely. Thus making the event a whole lot more competitive than it currently looks.
I dont know if you will agree but I think this is a big weekend for your bet. If some of these Guineas horses fail to stay, Ten Sovereigns in particular, the obvious target would then be the Commonwealth Cup surely. Thus making the event a whole lot more competitive than it currently looks.
I get what you mean about possible challengers but I think Advertise and Ten Sovereigns are the only ones who have the class and look like they might be top sprinters if failing to stay.
Calyx beat Advertise cosily in the Coventry really and I doubt he will reverse that if coming here. Ten Sovereigns is favourite in the Guineas and if he wins, he stays over a mile surely. I am not concerned about any others really because it looks a weak Guineas anyway. If Ten Sovereigns does come here, I still feel Calyx goes off favourite.
I backed Ten Sovereigns for the Commonwealth Cup after his debut because the trainer had said the Middle Park would be his ultimate target as a 2YO and 16/1 looked worth an early play. He followed up quickly in the Round Tower and his price was smartly reduced before the Middle Park win saw him hot favourite.
Something seems to happen to the favourites so many times in these ante-post situations but the way I look at it is that a win a big odds offsets the times that you don't get a run for you money. So many times when you DO get a run, they are disappointing anyway.
It's a fair way off yet but I think there will be more disappointments, than stellar performances, from the current field and Calyx could be very short on the day if he stays sound.
Generally shorter for Calyx now after the Guineas. Ten Sovereigns didn't run as if a total non-stayer and didn't take a fierce hold or anything.
Advertise would not have been involved at any distance today and on this evidence has not trained on. Interesting where Ten Sovereigns goes next but I feel Calyx will beat him if he heads here. Their profiles are very different and if Ten Sovereigns does go off to use his speed, Calyx will likely mow him down late.
Advertise would not have been involved at any distance today and on this evidence has not trained on. Interesting where Ten Sovereigns goes next but I feel Calyx will beat him if he heads here. Their profiles are very different and if Ten Sovereigns does go off to use his speed, Calyx will likely mow him down late.
Watching Ten Sovereigns I would be amazed if he isn't dropped back in trip.
Obrien has won 10 Guineas all off a layoff, yfdc
running in the Greenham probably cost Kingman the Guineas off a layoff
and lets be honest, when it comes to winning Guineas, I think Obrien knows a bit more than Gosden
running in the Greenham probably cost Kingman the Guineas off a layoff
and lets be honest, when it comes to winning Guineas, I think Obrien knows a bit more than Gosden
Gosden added: "I'm inclined to think it's something he picked up in the race [at Royal Ascot]. It needs dealing with but I think he'll be absolutely fine, probably in three months' time. The prognosis is therefore extremely good for next year, but frustratingly not for races like the Morny, Middle Park or Dewhurst."
So the horse was fine from October but not in time for the end of season 2yo races, plenty of time to get ready for the Guineas 7 months later, id bet any money the fact they had TDH for the Guineas meant they took their time with Calyx for Ascot and it turned into a late rush to get ready with the gallop to see etc, if they didnt have TDH, Calyx would have been trained and ready for the Guineas
So the horse was fine from October but not in time for the end of season 2yo races, plenty of time to get ready for the Guineas 7 months later, id bet any money the fact they had TDH for the Guineas meant they took their time with Calyx for Ascot and it turned into a late rush to get ready with the gallop to see etc, if they didnt have TDH, Calyx would have been trained and ready for the Guineas
Calyx would always have gone into the Guineas with a stamina question to answer. Talking about the Morny and the Middle Park is classic sprinter territory. The plan was always to work him slowly towards 7F and that's not a good sign of confidence that a horse will get a mile the following year.
Originally they said they would skip Royal Ascot and give the horse more time but they went back on that notion and ran him in the Coventry just 10 days after debut. Maybe it was Teddy Grimthorpe's call but I don't rate his decision making myself and if the Coventry resulted in the setback then it was a foolish move. They should be thinking about what will happen at 3YO and not a bit of glory at the Royal Meeting. The Coventry is a poor race for the winner going on to land the Guineas and we saw this weekend that the 2nd and 3rd Advertise and Sergei Prokofiev were beaten, even with the O'Brien colt dropping back to 5F.
Early doors Gosden said that Calyx was all speed and mentioned the Pavilion for his comeback run but Grimthorpe came out with all the bluster about the Guineas being the target all the way along. Even after ruling the Guineas out he was adamant that the top mile races would be the target. It seems that even he accepts now that the horse is a sprinter.
Looking at the Coventry 2nd and 3rd, can we argue with any certainty that Calyx would have fared differently in the Guineas? Further evidence comes from Ten Sovereigns who did attempt the "Let's try the mile just to see" path and never looked like winning at any stage. If Calyx had run, particularly from a low draw, it is hard to say with any real confidence that he would have won.
Originally they said they would skip Royal Ascot and give the horse more time but they went back on that notion and ran him in the Coventry just 10 days after debut. Maybe it was Teddy Grimthorpe's call but I don't rate his decision making myself and if the Coventry resulted in the setback then it was a foolish move. They should be thinking about what will happen at 3YO and not a bit of glory at the Royal Meeting. The Coventry is a poor race for the winner going on to land the Guineas and we saw this weekend that the 2nd and 3rd Advertise and Sergei Prokofiev were beaten, even with the O'Brien colt dropping back to 5F.
Early doors Gosden said that Calyx was all speed and mentioned the Pavilion for his comeback run but Grimthorpe came out with all the bluster about the Guineas being the target all the way along. Even after ruling the Guineas out he was adamant that the top mile races would be the target. It seems that even he accepts now that the horse is a sprinter.
Looking at the Coventry 2nd and 3rd, can we argue with any certainty that Calyx would have fared differently in the Guineas? Further evidence comes from Ten Sovereigns who did attempt the "Let's try the mile just to see" path and never looked like winning at any stage. If Calyx had run, particularly from a low draw, it is hard to say with any real confidence that he would have won.