Coronavirus

[Solid Air]

20% of the population? not even close I reckon

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its near enough that for just those aged over 65 .

 

[O'l Gravy Leg.]

pretty sure it is a myth though the war years would have been the closest for obvious reasons .

Dont think its a myth, though we literally do have our finest moments as a species in the face of adversity, a trope used by bad guys in movies where they want to put humanity through the ringer to "bring out the best in us"

Truth is, if we don't have an external threat (or a common cause), we end up eating our own arses

 

[astro]

This idea that the "vulnerable" could be shielded and everyone goes on as normal never seems to address one thing the numbers . My estimate is it is an absolute minimum of 20% and it is difficult to see how that number can be effectively shielded - not that any proponent has suggested how it would be done .

For a start you could make it absolutely clear that working from home is acceptable. Maybe even make it illegal for businesses to unnecessarily discriminate based on this.

Instead the current government did the opposite, telling people they'd lose their jobs if they didn't get back in the office to prop up landlord rents.

 

[Gessa]

Ah! The evil landlords, wanting their rent so they can pay their mortgages.......bastards.

 

[Tobes]

I did say nothing is certain, I am saying antibody tests report an incomplete data picture, which is less than helpful.
It also means that T cell immunity also appears to last longer than antibody immunity. We'll have to wait on more research to see how long ect

The black death was a cold driven famine and starvation plague that onset so dramatically and fast relatively speaking (and burned through as many as 200 million in 4 years) and had such a high mortality rate, no one could even be treated, it was the 1300s in a time where people's immune systems were also compromised by malnutrition, living conditions were awful and a time where you could lose your kid to infections as a norm

Comparing that to COVID and how we'd actually try a herd immunity plan now would be comparing apples to the sun.

Herd immunity with COVID in 2020 is something that can and is discussed as a matter of science and policy

Herd immunity and Bubonic plague in 2020 would not be something discussed as matter of either of the former.

No. Black Death or bubonic plague, is a bacterial infection, it’s as fatal today as it was then if left untreated, **** all to do with malnutrition or some supposed changes in human immune systems.

I used it merely to prove the point I was making about herd immunity.

Name one infection that has been eradicated without a vaccine being used?

 

[O'l Gravy Leg.]

No. Black Death or bubonic plague, is a bacterial infection, it’s as fatal today as it was then if left untreated, **** all to do with malnutrition or some supposed changes in human immune systems.

I used it merely to prove the point I was making about herd immunity.

Name one infection that has been eradicated without a vaccine being used?

That's besides the point what it was, the point is using that as an analogue for COVID and herd immunity today is not a comparison one can make

it's also not an example of why "herd immunity doesn't work" because herd immunity in biological evolution didn't evolve by killing most of the heard rapidly and the survivors going forward, over and over. It was bacteria (that we could fight off with better immune systems, not be immune to) over 100k/yrs as well as getting infected with viruses that gave us immunity to them.

How well the body fights off a bacteria, it absolutely matters if you are healthy or not. Saying otherwise would be akin to saying the earth is a pancake

 

[astro]

it was the 1300s in a time where people's immune systems were also compromised by malnutrition, living conditions were awful and a time where you could lose your kid to infections as a norm

As opposed to modern times where the government votes down feeding schoolchildren and regulations that require homes to be fit for human habitation?

 

[Tobes]

I think you'd need to go through the demographics and combine that with health data, who's got family and so on. 20% is far too high I am guessing, uneducated guess

There’s circa 12m people in the U.K. aged over 65, this number rises to circa 15m when you add in those families who live with someone over 65.

That excludes those in the extremely vulnerable category who are under 65, like me and several others on here.

So it’s actually more than 20% of the U.K. population who’d be affected by ‘shielding the vulnerable’

 

[astro]

There’s circa 12m people in the U.K. aged over 65, this number rises to circa 15m when you add in those families who live with someone over 65.

That excludes those in the extremely vulnerable category who are under 65, like me and several others on here.

So it’s actually more than 20% of the U.K. population who’d be affected by ‘shielding the vulnerable’

And what about the people who don't die but need long term care? Are they just written off too or does society support them?

 

[O'l Gravy Leg.]

There’s circa 12m people in the U.K. aged over 65, this number rises to circa 15m when you add in those families who live with someone over 65.

That excludes those in the extremely vulnerable category who are under 65, like me and several others on here.

So it’s actually more than 20% of the U.K. population who’d be affected by ‘shielding the vulnerable’

How many of 65 and over have families that would actually take care of doing that for their family members? many have been doing that
How many 65 and over have no comorbidities? Healthy-ish 70 year olds have a very high survival rate
How many 65 and over already have to be careful and avoid even the flu due to health and existing conditions?


It's not a x amount is over this age therefor. Way too simplistic

 

[O'l Gravy Leg.]

And what about the people who don't die but need long term care? Are they just written off too or does society support them?

You need to go back to the start of this particular topic, because that's not even what we are talking about. No one is even saying anything like writing anyone off.

 

[Tobes]

That's besides the point what it was, the point is using that as an analogue for COVID and herd immunity today is not a comparison one can make

it's also not an example of why "herd immunity doesn't work" because herd immunity in biological evolution didn't evolve by killing most of the heard rapidly and the survivors going forward, over and over. It was bacteria (that we could fight off with better immune systems, not be immune to) over 100k/yrs as well as getting infected with viruses that gave us immunity to them.

How well the body fights off a bacteria, it absolutely matters if you are healthy or not. Saying otherwise would be akin to saying the earth is a pancake

The death rates from untreated bubonic plague are the same now as they were in C14th so the facts don’t back up your point - at all. Immune Systems haven’t evolved either, as immunity to any infectious disease isn’t passed from one generation to the next, so that’s absolute twaddle.

Now we’ve got that out of the way, answer the question, name one infectious disease that has been eradicated without a vaccine?

 

[astro]

You need to go back to the start of this particular topic, because that's not even what we are talking about. No one is even saying anything like writing anyone off.

In which post do you explain achieving herd immunity without millions of people dying?

 

[O'l Gravy Leg.]

In which post do you explain achieving herd immunity without millions of people dying?

Again you need to go back because I never even said we should use herd immunity, all I said was it was a real scientific and policy discussion

SOmeone called it a myth, that's not true

and now we're here, and the argument being made is changing under my feet with every post in reply to me

Herd immunity is not a myth and talking about the black death in relation to heard immunity is absolutely pointless

 

[astro]

Again you need to go back because I never even said we should use herd immunity, all I said was it was a real scientific and policy discussion

SOmeone called it a myth, that's not true

and now we're here, and the argument being made is changing under my feet with every post in reply to me

Herd immunity is not a myth and talking about the black death in relation to heard immunity is absolutely pointless

So you're saying let millions of people die for nothing rather than for herd immunity?

 

[O'l Gravy Leg.]

So you're saying let millions of people die for nothing rather than for herd immunity?

"you're saying let millions of people die for nothing rather than for herd immunity"

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[Tobes]

How many of 65 and over have families that would actually take care of doing that for their family members? many have been doing that
How many 65 and over have no comorbidities? Healthy-ish 70 year olds have a very high survival rate
How many 65 and over already have to be careful and avoid even the flu due to health and existing conditions?


It's not a x amount is over this age therefor. Way too simplistic

If you let the virus rip and shield the vulnerable - as has been suggested by some.

It’d be literally impossible for those people affected and their families to go anywhere without significant risk, also carers, NHS workers, their kids going to school, getting what they need etc. It’s just yet another bogus idea that’d be impossible to implement and is being pushed by either ‘freedom fighters who don’t seem to understand what the word Society means, or shills for those with vested interests in there being no disruption to business or with people people working from home and not in office spaces.

 

[O'l Gravy Leg.]

If you let the virus rip and shield the vulnerable - as has been suggested by some.

It’d be literally impossible for those people affected and their families to go anywhere without significant risk, also carers, NHS workers, their kids going to school, getting what they need etc. It’s just yet another bogus idea that’d be impossible to implement and is being pushed by either ‘freedom fighters who don’t seem to understand what the word Society means, or shills for those with vested interests in there being no disruption to business or with people people working from home and not in office spaces.

If you remember, I brought this up yesterday

I said myself that the time to do that was immediately after we found out, and that we can't go back in time

 

[Tobes]

So you're saying let millions of people die for nothing rather than for herd immunity?

No he’s just demonstrating that he hasn’t got a clue about infectious diseases.

 

[O'l Gravy Leg.]

No he’s just demonstrating that he hasn’t got a clue about infectious diseases.

Even when I try be civil, you're still a toxic little toad Tobes, a tiny small man. Being shown to be wrong brings out the worst in you