You are too sweet..
So yes I think it is scaremongering...to set us up for what Boris is going to say today.
The figures are "technically" correct. We have ONE set of figures showing a doubling of cases in 7 days. IF those figures were to happen everyday for the next month...and in fact speed up...and as numbers of cases increases the R number and so doubling number would increase and so they would speed up...then we would have 50,000 cases by mid October.
There is a lot of ifs and buts in there. If we are now constantly doubling in 7 days, and if we do nothing about it .....are the two main ones I am talking about.
Remember in March, we really did not know what we were dealing with...and we were slow to react
This time we are actually a bit more in the know. So it is a worst case scenario...and as I say it is to soften us up for what is being said.
I should also say, we now have some treatments;dexamthasone, the monoclonal I can't remember the name of and the convalescent sera. People are also more aware and will seek treatment earlier, we should not have as many deaths.
Boris has been accused (rightly in Feb/March/April) of not taking it seriously enough. This time he means to show he does take it seriously....or he is trying to take the countries mind off other things (brexit, breaking international law, dodgy dealings of the banks, being in cohoots with Russian Oligarchs, that sort of thing)