Off Topic Corona virus

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In case anyone does want to read why the Government had got it wrong and have changed tack, this is the Imperial College paper. Its 20 pages long and goes on a bit, but basically says we were heading for 250k deaths as we'd have too many people needing ICU beds. The key chart is on page 13, I'll post it below.

What interests me is that under a suppression policy (the new plan, and what countries like China and S Korea who know what they are doing, have implemented) the deaths can still vary between 5k and 50k IF we do everything (right now we are not). The reasons for the big range are
a) we don't know the re-infection rate (could be a person infects 2 others, or up to 2.6 others) plus
b) it depends at what point the govt triggers Social distancing and school/university closure - they can do it when there are 60 cases a week needing an ICU bed, or at up to 400 a week.

Its also worth noting that if we only do case isolation + home quarantine + social distancing, the range is much bigger - 50k up to 120k deaths (varying according to the same parameters as above.

So I conclude:
- government must do all 4 measures - case isolation + home quarantine + social distancing + school/university closure
- we need to know they will trigger Social distancing and school/university closure as soon as there are 60 ICU cases a week

These are the two things I'll be looking for.

Finally, if like me you can't remember what all the terms mean:

case isolation - any suspected cases must immediately stay at home for 7-14 days

home quarantine - anyone living in same household as a suspect must also stay home

social distancing - irrespective of whether they have any symptoms all at risk groups (elderly, specific conditions, pregnant women - like my daughter FFS) should stay at home

school/university closure - what it says

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


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One of the main things I am looking for is what action are the government going to take to stop panicking buying/hoarding. It's alright talking about self isolation/social distances but we all have to eat etc. If stock is not available in shops you have to make more journeys in order to keep yourself supplied.
I don't think we can rely on supermarkets to police this on a voluntary basis.
Whilst I support Boris in general in my view they are being very slow on this issue.
 
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2 pennth said:
One of the main things I am looking for is what action are the government going to take to stop panicking buying/hoarding. It's alright talking about self isolation/social distances but we all have to eat etc. If stock is not available in shops you have to make more journeys in order to keep yourself supplied.
I don't think we can rely on supermarkets to police this on a voluntary basis.
Whilst I support Boris in general in my view they are being very slow on this issue.
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As soon as he puts the police state act through we’ll be fine.
 
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Lives are important but if Boris comes good on the help packages for businesses and small businesses then they’ve done great strides. If they got it wrong to start with blame the scientist who is advising, it’s an ever changing horizon and at least he had the balls to alter course as soon as he was advised. He is listening to a team of professional experts, what more could you expect of him, would anyone really prefer Corbyn and Abbott in charge right now?

In regards to schools closing, it will happen but a NHS nurse was on TV the other day, she said if the schools close early she can’t work. You can’t compare the UK to other countries, population density, poverty, lifestyles they all differ.

I know some couldn’t care less about business but when this pandemic has finished and businesses have closed and there are no jobs, no pubs,1000s more homeless and all the accumulative effects you might change your mind.

Stocks and shares would continue to fall through the floor so when your pension pot runs dry what are you going to do? One step at a time, he has to get it right, nobody could foresee the idiots stock piling. It’s down to the stores to limit goods, I don’t see what the government could do to be honest.

When they sit down at their meeting today, I would prefer them to discuss NHS support and coping, helping business, home owner and now renters before worrying how to stop the idiots in the shops.

NOT aimed at anyone, just having my general say on it all but I think we have to give this government some credit, I’m not saying it’s perfect and we’ll have to wait and see if they deliver on the promises. I’d like to see them put more pressure on business insurance to stump up cash and I’m hoping large supermarkets do NOT get business rate tax relief, they’re the only ones doing a booming trade
 
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ristac said:
Lives are important but if Boris comes good on the help packages for businesses and small businesses then they’ve done great strides. If they got it wrong to start with blame the scientist who is advising, it’s an ever changing horizon and at least he had the balls to alter course as soon as he was advised. He is listening to a team of professional experts, what more could you expect of him, would anyone really prefer Corbyn and Abbott in charge right now?

In regards to schools closing, it will happen but a NHS nurse was on TV the other day, she said if the schools close early she can’t work. You can’t compare the UK to other countries, population density, poverty, lifestyles they all differ.

I know some couldn’t care less about business but when this pandemic has finished and businesses have closed and there are no jobs, no pubs,1000s more homeless and all the accumulative effects you might change your mind.

Stocks and shares would continue to fall through the floor so when your pension pot runs dry what are you going to do? One step at a time, he has to get it right, nobody could foresee the idiots stock piling. It’s down to the stores to limit goods, I don’t see what the government could do to be honest.

When they sit down at their meeting today, I would prefer them to discuss NHS support and coping, helping business, home owner and now renters before worrying how to stop the idiots in the shops.

NOT aimed at anyone, just having my general say on it all but I think we have to give this government some credit, I’m not saying it’s perfect and we’ll have to wait and see if they deliver on the promises. I’d like to see them put more pressure on business insurance to stump up cash and I’m hoping large supermarkets do NOT get business rate tax relief, they’re the only ones doing a booming trade
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They are getting a lot wrong. All patients going into hospital should be tested, all staff should be tested, my daughter is now off due to a non-coronavirus ward letting an infected patient in, so that’s one doctor down for the next 2 weeks.
 
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ristac said:
Lives are important but if Boris comes good on the help packages for businesses and small businesses then they’ve done great strides. If they got it wrong to start with blame the scientist who is advising, it’s an ever changing horizon and at least he had the balls to alter course as soon as he was advised. He is listening to a team of professional experts, what more could you expect of him, would anyone really prefer Corbyn and Abbott in charge right now?

In regards to schools closing, it will happen but a NHS nurse was on TV the other day, she said if the schools close early she can’t work. You can’t compare the UK to other countries, population density, poverty, lifestyles they all differ.

I know some couldn’t care less about business but when this pandemic has finished and businesses have closed and there are no jobs, no pubs,1000s more homeless and all the accumulative effects you might change your mind.

Stocks and shares would continue to fall through the floor so when your pension pot runs dry what are you going to do? One step at a time, he has to get it right, nobody could foresee the idiots stock piling. It’s down to the stores to limit goods, I don’t see what the government could do to be honest.

When they sit down at their meeting today, I would prefer them to discuss NHS support and coping, helping business, home owner and now renters before worrying how to stop the idiots in the shops.

NOT aimed at anyone, just having my general say on it all but I think we have to give this government some credit, I’m not saying it’s perfect and we’ll have to wait and see if they deliver on the promises. I’d like to see them put more pressure on business insurance to stump up cash and I’m hoping large supermarkets do NOT get business rate tax relief, they’re the only ones doing a booming trade
Click to expand...
Only going to make one comment because I have got a bit of a b in my bonnet on this one
And that comes down to the lack of foresight on behalf of supermarkets for allowing panic buying/hoarding/profiteering.
If we are not careful we will have riots
 
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2 pennth said:
Only going to make one comment because I have got a bit of a b in my bonnet on this one
And that comes down to the lack of foresight on behalf of supermarkets for allowing panic buying/hoarding/profiteering.
If we are not careful we will have riots
Click to expand...
Lack of foresight or big supermarkets cashing in.
 
lifecheshirewhite said:
In people where there has been a finish result, ie got better or died it's 8% most cases are on going, flu is 0.1%.
And I take it you failed maths, work out 7.499 as a % of 188,000 again.Around 4%.
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We are not thanking about the same rates. What I was talking about was the GMR (Global mortality rate) and what you are talking about is the CFR (Case fatality rate).

It is believed that The Spanish flu had a GMR of about 2.5% (mathematically this is not possible and fare to low, should probably be between 10 and 20%) that would translate to more than 190 million deaths today.

An infectious disease mathematician (Adam Kucharski) and some colleagues of him has calculated that the true CFR in China is between 0.3 and 2.4%. Also, some experts anticipate that if widespread testing were deployed the CFR would remain at or be below 2%.

In Hubei province where the majority of deaths is situated the CFR is around 3.1%, yet in other provinces it is around 0.16%

Just to be clear, I do think that any death it’s a tragedy and should be prevented as much as possible. But I do believe that this crisis has been pumped up to something bigger than it is bye governments, health organisations and journalists around the world. This has again led to widespread panic and senseless hording all over and it will get worse. In the end I think the way it has been handled will do more harm than good, that a lot of businesses will go bankrupted and many people will lose their jobs and their homes.
 
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