Barwell Bridge e/w in Pertemps & Riverside Theatre in Ryanair Not sure whether its true but heard Pipe's yard struck with coughing. if true advise ignoring them.
After today Cats, I can see that being true. (Though that doesnt mean Tom S's poor rides were justified!!)
Scotsbrook Cloud now 100-1 so going back in for some more, way overpriced....if he wins Stan James will be my bitch!
Key word there though Oddy is Arkle Could you imagine him looking happy in any 2 mile race these days? I really like him though the current price looks a touch cramped to me. RUBI LIGHT is hugely overpriced despite ground concerns. He was bombing round here last year on the quicker surface and but for a final fence error, could have seen them all off from the front. Very classy animal.
Evening men. First race is a toughie...Had it down to three Sir de Champs, Champion Court and Peddlers Cross. I've taken a chance though, on the last named. Yes, his chase form is dog dirt, I know it is and he ran away from Sprinter Sacre like a little girl but I'm, against my betters instincts, giving this one a chance to show he's still a force to reckoned with tomorrow. Champion Court should ensure a decent gallop for Sir de Champs but McCain looks to have his string in better order than Mullins has so I've taken a chance on Peddlers. Hope the Arkle ante-post losers on him don't desert him tomorrow . Somersby Somersby Somersby. Beat Finians Rainbow the last day. That'll do for me.
evening chaps. I'm off to cheltenham tomorrow, first Thursday for a long time. will be excited to see big buck's, other than that it looks a nightmare day. had a poor day today but found an antepost double on finians and long run that id forgotten, so I'll be cheering on the dentist on Friday. early thoughts, wish hendo hadn't been so hot cos fancied solix for ages bit now his price will wither, him and champion court. what's next o yea the pertemps, pineau du re seems overpriced, then great endeavour, worried it'll be pricewise and I'll be backing it oncourse at 6-1, 1/6 3 places with those tight bastards. gansey for the plate, 50s will do me, and may well go with old exmoor ranger and nass's sona sasta in the last to get me the bfh. what are the chances I'll be scraping together a tenner for a punt on the charity race to just get a bit back.....
4.00 Cheltenham Matuhi 25-1 e/w I actually think David Pipe could have a good day tomorrow in the handicaps, plenty of live chances. Matuhi is one such chance imho. Matuhi has had two runs this season, both over course and distance. It was the 2nd of these runs, on new years day, which really stands out. Matuhi, off of a mark of 141, ran a very credible 3rd with Conor O'Farrell claiming 3lbs off. He possibly hit the front a little too soon that day but the front three did pull clear of the rest. Ultimately he found two a bit too strong. Tomorrow he runs off of 144 with Thomas Bellamy taking 10lbs off. Now don't make me do the maths here but you can see that, claim included, he's off a lower mark (4lbs is it!?). Now look at the form of said race back in January. Calgary Bay won that day off of 145 and has subsquently come out and won off of 151. Hector's choice ran the race with a mark of 141. He's placed in both his starts since and runs in the same race tomorrow off of 147. Even Renard, 6 lengths behind Matuhi in January when rated 141, won his last start (admittedly off of 135 and over a different trip) and goes into Friday's Johnny Henderson chase with a rating that is now 144. Everyone is expecting Pipe to win this race with Salut Flo but just a year ago Tom Scu rode 6/1f Chartreux in the Pertemps final which was won by Buena Vista in impressive fashion. I just wonder if we might see Pipe in the winners enclosure tomorrow but not with the winner that most people expect. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDIT: I should add that there are 5 places paid if you shop around and Matuhi ran 6th in this last year despite being badly hampered 4 out and probably racing too far off the pace for a horse who doesn't find a lot. He's up net 4lbs from last year (up 9 but gets an extra 5 off from the claimer) and I think he's well worth a shot on the back of his last run.
Restless harry 33/1 for the pertemps huge ew price ground mayb bit of worry but will get the trip amd is a huge beast of a horse should place at vwry least
1.30 Cheltenham: PEDDLERS CROSS 7/2- The McCain yard is bang in form, he has decided that this is the race that suits the horse the best and there is no Srinter Sacre. He stayed 2 and a half miles over hurdles and also had the gears to be 2nd in a Champion Hurdle. He jumped very well on his opening two starts before an early error against the beast that is Sprinter Sacre knocked him about a little bit. McCain thinks he has him back near his best and with a clean round of jumping, he should have the class to go very close. Sir Des Champs is one of the most promising chasers around but 2 and a half miles on quick ground is not what he needs- he should have been running today, and there is a chance he will be outpaced. If anyone flounders late, Sir Des Champs will have them up the hill. He'll go on to 3 miles next season regardless. 2.05 SONOFVIC 10/1- His jumping has let him down chasing, but the fact he was pitched in against Grands Crus and Champion Court tells you what an engine he has and his hurdles form last year was most promsing. Will stay the trip and looks an interesting contender. 2.40 Cheltenham: CAPTAIN CHRIS 14/1- I know he was erratic last time we saw him, but he scared himself a bit early on in the race and it just meant this right handed jumping got exaggerated to a big problem. He has schooled well since and his course form puts him bang in the mix here. There are risks attatched but Hobbs would not run him if he hadnt been showing much spark. He'd have beaten the likes of Medermit very cosily had he not unseated on his reappearance this season, and the King George was always going to be a tough ask with Kauto turning on the gas a mile out at a trip that was new to him. I just think this race might be ideal if Johnson can settle him in mid division just off the pace. The key is to try and get an inside sit because if he is on the outside there is that chance he'll let himself carry right. Clearly he has gone better at home otherwise he wouldn't be here. Richard Johnson looked much happier with him after schooling, so I think he felt much better about the horse. Good ground absolutely suits him as well. 4.40 Cheltenham: START ME UP 14/1 Nina Carberry must have been devestated with the loss of Garde Champetre and I hope she can show some fighting spirit and land a winner this week. Start Me Up has a very good engine and if he jumps round well he will go close in this field I think. Was an unlucky loser in a Grade Two in Ireland and looks well treated off 135. Coupled with a 4L defeat to the massively improved SeaBass, that looks good form in the xontext of this race and is versatile with regards ground, which is a big plus in these Cheltenham spring conditions.
One thought I do have today that this is Big Bucks BIGGEST test over hurdles. There are genuine Group 1 hurdlers, all of whom have Champion Hurdle speed, and all of whom potential stayers who excel over 2 and a half miles. Oscar Whisky loves the lightning quick ground, Thousand Stars is the French Champion (3m) beating Grands Crus, whilst So Young would have beaten Rock On Ruby and First Lieutenant in last years Neptune but for a poor jump at the last. Big Bucks needs his absolute A-game and I hope he brings it.
Have a presentation in the morning so haven't had much time to look at the cards. I'll try get more done tomorrow afternoon. 2.05 RUSSIAN WAR 40/1 , PETTIFOUR 40/1 & SCOTSBROOK CLOUD 100/1 Looks incredibly open but I think at least one of these three outsiders can make the frame. Gordon Elliott's RUSSIAN WAR is an old friend of mine and had a tremendous season last year notching up 6 wins over hurdles, including one at Cheltenham. He created a fantastic impression winning at Aintree and followed up that win a really, really impressive win off a mark of 135 at Ayr where he won on the bridle. After this, Elliot sent this 9 year old chasing but he really didn't take to it and lost a lot of confidence. Since reverting back to hurdling, he put in a much improved performance without looking the horse of old off a mark of 149 over C+D back in October and after being pulled up on his last start he's had a 5 month break which should freshen him up (has a good record fresh). Although he'll have to put in a career best performance to win this off a mark of 147, I certainly think he is capable and if the first time application of cheekpieces work I can see him going close at what looks a very overpriced 40/1 PETTIFOUR is a 10 year old from the Nigel Twiston Davies yard who has good course form and could well have been laid out for this race. He came a very good 2nd at the track back in November of 138 and I think he may have had this race in mind (probably like so many others) for quite a while. Tomorrow he races off a mark of 143 which certainly doesn't seem beyond him and the trainers son Willie takes off a very valuable 7lb to give him an effective handicap rating of 136. If the application of first time blinkers bring about some improvement, I see no reason why Pettifour can't at least outrun his odds and hopefully win. My last selection is the outsider of the entire party in the shape of David Evans 7 year old SCOTSBROOK CLOUD (who I only looked into because of Stick and I will take no credit if he wins) and I don't understand why he's such a massive price. As a 6 year old, he was highly progressive winning twice and finishing 2nd three times in his 7 starts in this sphere which culminated in a decent 2nd off a mark of 135. The form of that race looks strong with the winner putting in a great effort on his only subsequent start off a 7lb higher mark and the 3rd winning off a 7lb higher mark subsequently. After a 5 month absence, Scotsbrook Cloud was pulled up on his last start but that was on heavy ground which didn't suit at all and I'm willing to ignore that effort. Off a mark of 137 tomorrow, if he's improved from a 6 year old to a 7 year old I see no reason why he won't be able to defy this mark in the future and with jockey Michael Byrne taking off 5lb tomorrow he gets into the race as joint bottom weight off just 10-1. Although he could easily be outclassed, his trainer is in very good form at the moment and I've certainly see way worse 100/1 shots in my lifetime. 4.05 DIVERS 7/1 I think this looks a bit of a Ferdy Murphy plot as Divers has gotten into this race on what seems a very good mark. Divers absolutely loves it around Cheltenham and was a winner at the festival last yearr. With Murphy in great form and Tony McCoy booked, will be very surprised if he doesn't go extremely close with a clean round of jumping. Don't like too much else for the day, although I think SO YOUNG 22/1 could be best of the rest behind Big Bucks in the World Hurdle and it wouldn't surprise me if FREDO 33/1 put up a good showing in the last race of the day.
Very happy with my ante-post bet on Sivola De Sivola 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett as he hasn't gotten into the Pertemps where he was battling for favouritism. 33s still available with Boylesports and although he has a bit to find at the weights with current favourite Boston Bob, I think he is definitely an improving sort and if Boston Bob under-performs I think Tom George's 6 year old can take advantage. He's certainly going to start much shorter on the day so you could back him at 33s and lay him off for a free bet if you want.
1.30 Solix I'm looking for good Cheltenham course form here and I thought Solix ran a belting race behind Champion Court in the Dipper, trying to give him 3 lbs. They go off levels today and I just feel Solix is a little less exposed than the Keighley runner and fancy he may well have progressed past him. Clearly Nicky Henderson has his string in tremendous form, Barry Geraghty is riding out of his skin, and having finished 5th in last year's Coral Cup he knows all about the hurly-burly of the festival. 2.05 Bellflower Boy Spent hours looking at the Pertemps trying to spot plots and decided in the end to plump for an honest looking fella from a small yard with a likeable claimer on top. Dr Newland knows how to get a festival winner ready, having taken the 2007 Coral Cup with Burntoakboy, and Bellflower Boy has certainly struck form at the right time. He won a conditional jockey's handicap hurdle off 112 on New Year's Eve before sluicing up off 122 at the end of January under the excellent Jack Quinlan, who gets the ride today. Alan King's Godsmejudge was beaten 21 lengths, with Pause And Clause a further 18 lengths behind and Lucy Wadham's EL Dancer a further 6 lengths back in 4th. It may sound a funny thing to say about a 9YO but he looks really progressive and, despite being up 15lbs for his last win, he is certainly worth an e/w interest. 2.40 Somersby (NAP) Is having his best ever season and today returns to what ought to be his optimum trip. Having won a graduation chase early in the season he finished a good 2nd behind Master Minded in the Amlin before running a desperately disappointing race in the Peterborough. TV pictures showed his tongue lolling out that day and that prompted Henrietta Knight to reach for the tongue strap for his next race, the King George. Coming down the back straight for the second time he was going as well as anything before patently failing to stay and plugging on for 3rd behind Kauto Star and Long Run. He then came back to 2m1f for the Victor Chandler and, in a stirring battle up the home straight at Ascot, just got the better of subsequent Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow. He really went through with his finish that day, something he hasn't always done in the past, and clearly the tongue tie has done the trick and he can gain a deserved first festival victory here. 3.20 Big Bucks Whoever said the World Hurdle was a crap race should wash their mouth out - king of the heavyweights Big Bucks trying to stretch his unbeaten record to 16 against some top class animals in Oscar Whiskey, Volar La Vedette, Thousand Stars, So Young and Smad Place among others. It seems like every time he runs people are looking to get him beat, but the great horse just keeps pulling out more and more and I expect him to add a 4th World Hurdle to his haul today, with the mare Volar La Vedette chasing him home. 4.00 Niceonefrankie Won a shade cosily at Newbury last time and gets just a 5lbs penalty for that which gives him a tremendous chance here. He will appreciate the underfoot conditions today and has the ability to quicken off a decent pace as he showed with that Newbury success. 4.40 Start Me Up Looking for an experienced jockey in this one and Nina fits the bill on Charlie Swan's gelding. He was in the process of running a decent race in the Albert Bartlett last year before being badly hampered by the fall of Jetnova 2 out and being pulled up soon after. Broke his duck over fences at the 3rd time of asking from Berties Dream and Carloswayback (both won next time out) and was just 5 lengths behind Sea Bass over christmas, giving Ted Walsh's horse 4lbs. He was going well before unseating his rider at the 3rd last in the Punchestown National Trial in February before showing his well being with a very close 3rd in a Grade 2 Novices Chase last time out. Although there was a shock winner in Lion Na Bearnai that day, the 2nd placed horse, Four Commanders, ran an absolute belter in the 4-miler yesterday behind Teaforthree so the form looks good. I expect Nina to make plenty of use of him and he will be staying on all the way up the hill.
Ladbrokes have done a great offer in the World Hurdle. Half the odds each way terms. I've done Thousand Stars each way and So Young each way in the main market.
Hello lads. I made some disparaging remarks re Festival Thursday but I'll have to to rescind them.What a cracking card. I had hoped that Michael Flips would line up for the Byrne Group H'cap now that he has got his act together over birch.He would have had a lovely racing weight of 11st 4lb off 145 but connections have opted for the Jewson.Been a bit like that all week for me with withdrawals and alternative engagements...more cash saved for Long Run I suppose. Anyhow gonna have a few bob on a couple of outsiders. Like Sir Kezbaah in the Pertemps final,the 2.05,at 28/1 e/w.Always takes a couple of runs to come to hand and stayed on nicely LTO from the back of the field.He's with a very underrated trainer and looks,like a lot of others,to have been laid out for this.The ground will be perfect and he is a course and distance winner who could sneak a place or better.I think he has more to offer despite being off a not obviously lenient 143. Also interseted in Start Me Up in the 4.40.A couple of other posters have also selected him.He has run really well all season and will love this better ground,he actually won a bumper at Cheltenham on gd/fm a few years ago.SMU was running a lovely race behind the progressive Portrait King and Up the Beat,who reopposes here,at P'town before he slipped up on the second last bend.He has an 8lb pull with UTB today. He backed that run up with a great effort in a G2,which has worked out so far,and Nina Carberry,as always in these events,is a positive booking 16/1 is decent e/w value Time to study the graded races. GL all.
We probably should, but I personally think I can swerve this race and just watch it for the spectacle that it is.
