(Another) Season so far thread...

BSG

BSG

Well-Known Member
May 25, 2011
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As went enter the last few hours of 2011 I thought now would be a good time to reflect on the last 12 months of football being a Gills fan, but concentrating mainly on this season.

I think we can all agree it has been a mixed bag supporting the Gills in 2011, the hope and expectation, the good form toward the end of last season and the disappointment of watching the last few home games which ultimately lead to the failure of last season.

Unfortunately 2011/12 season hasn't started much better, some brief glances of the quality we possess but just as many (if not more) periods of play where we couldn't string two passes together for toffee! Case in point just this week a superb result to beat money-bags but as good as that was the result against the Daggers was poor.

I fear we are too inconsistant to make the automatic promotion spots this season, and we are looking likely to have to chance our arms in the play offs, just hope lady uck shines on us in 2012.

Happy New Year to all
 
Auto promoted places and what their points total were at the half way stage since 2004-05
HTML: 
2010-11	.	2009-10	.	2008-09	.	2007-08	.	2006-07	.	2005-06	.	2004-05
38		51		46		51		53		48		49
36		46		41		45		51		46		46
34		39		39		43		50		43		45

The Gills currently have 38 points at the 2011-12 half way stage. This points total would only have been enough for auto promotion in the 2010-11 season, although bear in mind I think a number of fixtures were cancelled last season before the half way stage due to snow, hence the lower half way points for that season.


Final Auto and Play-Off point totals since 2004-05
HTML: 
2010-11	.	2009-10	.	2008-09	.	2007-08	.	2006-07	.	2005-06	.	2004-05
86	.	93	.	85	.	97	.	89	.	86	.	83
81	.	83	.	79	.	92	.	88	.	83	.	80
80	.	82	.	78	.	88	.	85	.	81	.	80
79	.	73	.	78	.	82	.	84	.	78	.	78
73	.	73	.	75	.	80	.	74	.	72	.	75
69	.	72	.	70	.	78	.	72	.	71	.	72
68	.	72	.	69	.	78	.	71	.	66	.	72

Current projected totals would not give us enough points in any of the above previous seven seasons for auto promotion.
 
Good statistical analysis brb. There is one angle you have not picked up. Out of 23 games played, 13 of them have been away which promises 3 or 4 more points in the second half for the same levels of performance. i am not disagreeing with your general conclusion, just pointing out that it is a lot closer than the league table suggests at this stage.
 
So how are we doing three weeks in to February, I predicted 76 points (playoffs) for this season and currently we are eight points adrift of target for this period, despite the early season running and being six points ahead by the end of August.

However, Hessy still has time to turn this around and bring us back on course. My pre season predictions are forecasting six points from the next five games (15), so potential to make up the eight points loss +1.

Erm, what do we think?
 
to me it's a longshot, maybe out of reach?.

think we will all of a sudden need to find champions form...realistically it's not going to happen fella! :emoticon-0106-cryin

though i'd love for ANDY HESS to prove me wrong anytime soon <ok>
 
Not a chance in hell anymore, mid-table obscurity i would say! It would help if the players believed in Hessy.............but i have a feeling they have lost faith!! UTG
 
I am not the biggest fan of stats and comparing points against previous seasons (life is never that simple) but I feel we need to get at least 7 points fromthe next three home games if we are going to relight our promotion hopes...

Can we do is another question entirely
 
To get 76 points we would need to win 15 of our last 17... That's not gonna happen, even with the boost some clubs get from a change of management.

So it's now time for the club to limp to the end of the season, giving the younger squad members some useful experiance. Then a clean sweep out of all the deadwood (management and playing staff), and start afresh for next season.

BTW on a different note.. anyone feel that the attendances could dip way below 4000 by the end of the season.??

I feel the Hereford game could be an all time low under the Scally era for a league match...
 
The Shouting Man said:
To get 76 points we would need to win 15 of our last 17... That's not gonna happen, even with the boost some clubs get from a change of management.
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The Shouting Man - are you sure about those sums? 12 wins would give us 36 points, which would then make us more than the 76 points (77). Allowing us 5 loses up to the end of the season. However, I have not checked recent form and ppg to ensure whether 76 points is still enough for a playoff place.
 
An attendance of less than 4,000 is a real possibility. There were only 4,441 at the Southend game and there looked to be about 400 away fans.
 
the matter of southend had a poor turnout of 393 and the match being on sky tv, won't of helped our attendance.
the fact we've lost again since that game though won't help the next match...but don't think we will be as low as 4,000.
 
Now we know that towards the tail end of every league season, one or two teams make a late surge, pick up some momentum, and find themselves in fantastic form going into the play offs. Torquay and Stevenage of late come to mind. But can we replicate this?

On current form, no. No way.

We have an unsettled squad, picking up injuries and suspensions left right and centre.
Our formation doesn't work, a distinct lack of width throughout the team.
Full backs (not a slight on Evans as he is only a recent addition) who really add very little value defensively or going forward and will struggle against wingers with even the tiniest amount of pace and trickery.
A dysfunctional midfield (Jackman and J.Payne) aside which has looked out of sorts over the last few months, the likes of Weston, Montrose and Whelpdale contributing very little at all.
A strike partnership that becomes a front three in a desperate attempt to accommodate Danny Kedwell who, despite the deserved early season praise, has been particularly lacklustre lately, not for the want of trying, and I feel leaves things slightly unbalanced.

Teams who want to make a realistic push for promotion in the latter stages, have the drive, determination, and the team spirit in order to see these things through. 6 losses in 7 or whatever the stat may be, tells you that unfortunately we are quite a way away.

Now a lot of Hessy's signings are on two-three year contracts from what I believe, so palming any of them off (Frampton and Fish mainly) would not be as easy as first considered. But I believe that changes are needed.

PS - for any Gillingham locals, picked out a very scruffy character in the Beacon Court Tavern on C'Bury street on Saturday night that turned out to be a very glum looking Matt Lawrence. Declined the chance to open a conversation with "so you're not getting a new contract then".
 
brb said:
The Shouting Man - are you sure about those sums? 12 wins would give us 36 points, which would then make us more than the 76 points (77). Allowing us 5 loses up to the end of the season. However, I have not checked recent form and ppg to ensure whether 76 points is still enough for a playoff place.
Click to expand...

Oops! Maths was never my strong point. :emoticon-0120-doh:

Still can't see us getting near 76/77 points.

Even at my most optimistic, I can only predict us getting at best between 20-25 points from our remaining matches. Which would put us on 61-66 points and a final position of around 10th.
 
So we see the back of February and in the end it did not turn out to bad for the Gills.

We earned our now customary seven points for the month. Which really makes all the previous debate about Hessy and our poor run seem quite strange now. There has only been one month when we did not earn a minimum seven points (January).

I am still standing by my pre season 76 point target for the playoffs albeit 5 points adrift of plan. Forgetting my predictions on the message boards for Plymouth and Barnet, I only forecast 1 point out of these two games pre season, so anything more makes up the difference.
 
brb I think we will pick up at least 4 points over the next two games, I still feel it will go to the wire for our play off place, I also feel we need some of the teams above us to drop points for us to get there. Port Vale's problems my help us if they are deducted points.

It will be edge of your seat stuff but after Tuesday night we should be ready for anything!


UTG!
 
brb said:
So we see the back of February and in the end it did not turn out to bad for the Gills.

We earned our now customary seven points for the month. Which really makes all the previous debate about Hessy and our poor run seem quite strange now. There has only been one month when we did not earn a minimum seven points (January).

I am still standing by my pre season 76 point target for the playoffs albeit 5 points adrift of plan. Forgetting my predictions on the message boards for Plymouth and Barnet, I only forecast 1 point out of these two games pre season, so anything more makes up the difference.
Click to expand...

we will definitely need more than 7 points in March though- what with 8 games i think we will need to pick 12 points at least.
 
BelfastBlue said:
we will definitely need more than 7 points in March though- what with 8 games i think we will need to pick 12 points at least.
Click to expand...

You are correct <ok>

My remaining forecasts are as follows...

March - 11 points from a possible 21, March is our heaviest fixture listing of the season.
April - 7 points from a possible 15 - average monthly points tally.
May - 3 points from a possible 3 - at last a home game to finish the season.

The difficult bit is making up the 5 points difference mentioned earlier, while still maintaining my forecast of 11 points for March. Or hope on seventh place and what is normally achieved with the lessor 72 points. Everything to play for and anything can happen.
 
I think we will need this

12 Points from this month out of 21, I believe it is possible for us to get 4 wins out of 7 at least,

April it has to be at least 2 wins, and a draw or 2 so 7 or 8 points

May, we will win that. 3 points out of 3 and if we do this I have every belief we can make the Play Offs, it is our to throw away as I think we can get more points than Oxford,.
 
Looking at it I think on paper 72
Points cab be achieved. I can't see us getting more than that. Given our inconsistency though we could end up with about 65. Prediction wise I will go for 70
 
Continuing on the points target theme. It goes to show what a good winning run can do to put you back on promotion course and my pre season target.

After the Barnet game on Tuesday we had recovered our earlier loses and were back on course, with 53 points against my forecast of 53 points at that stage. Sadly as we have become accustomed it is two steps forward and one step back, as I had predicted three points against Crewe, hence now we are three points off forecast.

Cheltenham up next with a predicted one point from that game. We have achieved seven points every month apart from two, so fate had it that we were not going to achieve nine by Crewe.

We can still do this but only if we do not suffer another collapse to the likes of what was experienced in January and the beginning of February.
 
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