Off Topic Afcftw Mafia Game

[moreinjuredthanowen]

my next analysis


Question: What is obi wan talking about


Post 1455: http://www.not606.com/threads/afcftw-mafia-game.303261/page-73#post-8027707


“Sorry guys, not had a chance to review today's posts as had so much going on. But here's a quick recap of the intel AFC has provided me as the 'rambler' wandering around the town.


Although not all points are necessarily correct, AT LEAST TWO ARE TRUE. At least one from each set of 3 to be more precise.


1. Valley was seen chewing on salami in Luigi's restaurant, seemingly giving orders to someone.

2. Nobby was putting out his rubbish and there was a lot of noise from all those empty whiskey bottles.

3. Mikey was seen handing money over to a rather shady looking figure who was wearing a Newcastle United shirt.


1. Funky was heard talking to himself in different voices.

2. 666 Tash 666 was tending to his garden ready to enter his prize veg for the town fayre.

3. Lucaaas was driving his Ferrari Enzo down the street where Gerrez lives.


Although you might not be able to trust everything above , some of you at least should start to see some patterns based on what you personally know about you, your investigations, or your known team mates. Or at least know which ones to eliminate as fiction, to help narrow down the facts. ”


What facts are to hand:

Day1

1. Valley… I will return to that

2. Nobby seen with empty whisky bottles post 1478 http://www.not606.com/threads/afcftw-mafia-game.303261/page-74#post-8027791 . he DENIES IT.

3. Mikey seen handing over money. It would suggest a role


Day 2

1. Funky heard talking to himself. Clearly suggest another role.

2. Tash seen gardening. Bobby asked is this cartel growing stuff.. I don’t know

3. Lucaas seen driving ferrair. Suggest mafia


Tests: valley says he is investigating tash…. That is a call.

what do you think guys?

It is so juicy i thought.. hey hand on here this is too good to just be dropped in a non aligned towns lap.

 

[BobbyD]

I would not actually advocate that either. If you have a chance to kill a mafia take it. even though that hurts me it must be said. If you leave me about thinking hmmm mafia.. I then obviously must have some power to hurt town.

Not really, if there were specific mafia roles i would agree. However from the looks of it, i don't think their is so killing of a second mafia would be great but not 100% useful (especially when ours is a risky chance).

We have intel that SirTennis is mafia though. It is only 67% accurate but its better odds than a shot in the dark. It would make more sense for Valley to investigate Tash and us to lynch SirTennis. I believe MITO is the PI and I think we have a genuine (67%) chance of reducing the mafia down to one tonight.

Thats predicated that 1. MITO is the PI which we're split on i.e. he could be mafia and lying, 2. MITO has been lucky and hit with his 2/3s chance. Why i would ask Valley to investigate

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

I would not actually advocate that either. If you have a chance to kill a mafia take it. even though that hurts me it must be said. If you leave me about thinking hmmm mafia.. I then obviously must have some power to hurt town.

I would reluctantly agree with this. We have to kill mafia off as soon as we suspect them. Games can turn very quickly. I wouldn't want to see MITO taken out tonight, but IF SirTennis is innocent then we need to take out MITO next. If MITO is proved to be mafia (and I still think all the evidence is screaming at us that he is the PI) but if he is then I guess it would make sense that I get lynched next.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

please note that

Not really, if there were specific mafia roles i would agree. However from the looks of it, i don't think their is so killing of a second mafia would be great but not 100% useful (especially when ours is a risky chance).



Thats predicated that 1. MITO is the PI which we're split on i.e. he could be mafia and lying, 2. MITO has been lucky and hit with his 2/3s chance. Why i would ask Valley to investigate

first point is true at there will be one mafia left to pull the trigger but you have to kill me if you believe i am one as it makes most sense.

in the end i still invite the meth head to kill me if tennis is in the lead for lynch..

 

[Bodinki]

The thing about Obi's notes that is galling me is No.3 in the first paragraph, about Mikey giving money to a newcastle supporter.
Does this mean Mikey is the meth head? Who else would be giving someone else money?

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

Seriously, why is anybody listening to what Obi says? This is obi causing mischief. His role is described as mischief maker. The rules don't mention, or even hint, that Obi will be passed information.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

I would reluctantly agree with this. We have to kill mafia off as soon as we suspect them. Games can turn very quickly. I wouldn't want to see MITO taken out tonight, but IF SirTennis is innocent then we need to take out MITO next. If MITO is proved to be mafia (and I still think all the evidence is screaming at us that he is the PI) but if he is then I guess it would make sense that I get lynched next.

but funky is also right that you cannot ignore valley's evidence either. I know that and my case is weak. I've admitted it. I was the one who picked gerrez and got nothing so if i'd picked randomly and got a different read it might or might not help me.

Valley says i'm non town. I say i'm the drunk and his info makes so sense so have tried to come up with scenarios to fit that position. the simplest town decision is i was lying and valley is right. i can see that.

 

[BobbyD]

I would reluctantly agree with this. We have to kill mafia off as soon as we suspect them. Games can turn very quickly. I wouldn't want to see MITO taken out tonight, but IF SirTennis is innocent then we need to take out MITO next. If MITO is proved to be mafia (and I still think all the evidence is screaming at us that he is the PI) but if he is then I guess it would make sense that I get lynched next.

We have time to vote MITO/SirTennis off tomorrow or day after. Why rush into a decision today when we can have Valley check SirTennis out tonight. His answer will inform what we do.

In our current form:

1a). MITO dies, PI we go for Tennis
1b) MITO dies, is mafia we keep Teenis
2a) lynch Tennis, innocent we lynch MITO
2b), lynch Tennis, he's mafia we keep MITO

if both are innocent, we lose 2 days and lose 2 townies

why not

3a) investigate SirTennis, he's mafia we kill him and trust MITO
3b) investigate SirTennis, he's innocent, we reckon MITOs a liar (too much circumstantial evidence), we lynch that lying toe rag

 

[BobbyD]

The thing about Obi's notes that is galling me is No.3 in the first paragraph, about Mikey giving money to a newcastle supporter.
Does this mean Mikey is the meth head? Who else would be giving someone else money?

I thought it was Meth head but could it be mafia paying an assassin?

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

but funky is also right that you cannot ignore valley's evidence either. I know that and my case is weak. I've admitted it. I was the one who picked gerrez and got nothing so if i'd picked randomly and got a different read it might or might not help me.

Valley says i'm non town. I say i'm the drunk and his info makes so sense so have tried to come up with scenarios to fit that position. the simplest town decision is i was lying and valley is right. i can see that.

There are to things that have convinced me that you are the PI.

1) To me it would make zero sense for the 'real' PI to have remained quiet. As far as we know the mafia have one more kill (unless they killed gerrez, in which case they might have no more kills - but i doubt the mafia would kill with a cold). The most likely target is Valley.

2) Why would you not try and convince Valley to investigate someone else if you knew it would come back non-townie? Makes no sense.

 

[Bodinki]

We have time to vote MITO/SirTennis off tomorrow or day after. Why rush into a decision today when we can have Valley check SirTennis out tonight. His answer will inform what we do.

In our current form:

1a). MITO dies, PI we go for Tennis
1b) MITO dies, is mafia we keep Teenis
2a) lynch Tennis, innocent we lynch MITO
2b), lynch Tennis, he's mafia we keep MITO

if both are innocent, we lose 2 days and lose 2 townies

why not

3a) investigate SirTennis, he's mafia we kill him and trust MITO
3b) investigate SirTennis, he's innocent, we reckon MITOs a liar (too much circumstantial evidence), we lynch that lying toe rag

If we do either of these then who do you propose we lynch tonight then?
Be because we don't get investigation results until after the next nightfall

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

We have time to vote MITO/SirTennis off tomorrow or day after. Why rush into a decision today when we can have Valley check SirTennis out tonight. His answer will inform what we do.

In our current form:

1a). MITO dies, PI we go for Tennis
1b) MITO dies, is mafia we keep Teenis
2a) lynch Tennis, innocent we lynch MITO
2b), lynch Tennis, he's mafia we keep MITO

if both are innocent, we lose 2 days and lose 2 townies

why not

3a) investigate SirTennis, he's mafia we kill him and trust MITO
3b) investigate SirTennis, he's innocent, we reckon MITOs a liar (too much circumstantial evidence), we lynch that lying toe rag

That makes plenty of sense. My concern is trying to weaken the mafia at our first opportunity. Valley is a sitting duck. The way the game is set up then we cannot know if there are mafia roles or not. I just think in these games you hurt them before they hurt you.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Seriously, why is anybody listening to what Obi says? This is obi causing mischief. His role is described as mischief maker. The rules don't mention, or even hint, that Obi will be passed information.

I do agree with that as i would have expected the info to not give every role under the sun on people. they might ALL be wrong.. one might be right but the rest giving totally fake roles to people.

We just don't know. there are some hidden rules. "You will not know every action available in the game, some information will only be revealed to certain roles or mafia/cartel. So keep an open mind."(its not just the mafia funky!)

i would just not put too much store in it. however the real test will come. day one says valley is mafia, nobby is drunk (already desired but of course me might be only saying it) and mikey is meth head

well obviously if the mafia or serial killer or cartel believe it then eventually you'd might see valley dies and is psychic or mafia (still prob first) and when i die you will see i am the drunk and then maybe the meth head never kills and you wonder was he recruited.. or maybe mikey dies next i dunno...

but there will eventually be evidence to look back at all of these.... and so keep an open mind... but know obi can just edit a part for the laugh

 

[BobbyD]

I have gone for Tash. Heres why:

Obi mentioned Tash was growing stuff and taking it to the fayre to sell - Cartel growing drugs?
Cartel has not recruited in the last 2 nights
Tash hasn't been on much at all. Best case he's pablo. Worse case he's an inactive Townie who doesn't help us anyway

 

[Bodinki]

I thought it was Meth head but could it be mafia paying an assassin?

That would then tell me that there is an assassin in addition to the mafia? Surely he wouldn't be paying him unless he was freelance.
That could be the hidden power mafia have, a secret member?

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

I have gone for Tash. Heres why:

Obi mentioned Tash was growing stuff and taking it to the fayre to sell - Cartel growing drugs?
Cartel has not recruited in the last 2 nights
Tash hasn't been on much at all. Best case he's pablo. Worse case he's an inactive Townie who doesn't help us anyway

I think it's a mistake to base any actions on what Obi says. I genuinely believe he is ****ing with us.

To follow MITO's lead on this one...

Out of his first paragraph he says that at least one of the following are true

1) Valley is mafia (we already know 99% this isn't the case

2) Nolberto is the PI - Nobby has already denied this

3) Mikey is the meth head - we need to find out if he is or not to see if we can trust Obi before we base any actions on what he says.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

in the end guys keep it simple

you have valley's info right in front of you.

you have my denial and i can only point to tennis and gerrez. One died before my investigate went in.

You have evidence of cartel being strange, not as expect.

What do you do?

I'm valley's offering to town. I say he is wrong. I offered tennis he says I am wrong. you jsut need to decide who to kill.

once the report comes out tonight you will have more info and come at it again. just keep and open mind guys. if i die and i am the town drunk what do you do?

 

[BobbyD]

I think it's a mistake to base any actions on what Obi says. I genuinely believe he is ****ing with us.

To follow MITO's lead on this one...

Out of his first paragraph he says that at least one of the following are true

1) Valley is mafia (we already know 99% this isn't the case

2) Nolberto is the PI - Nobby has already denied this

3) Mikey is the meth head - we need to find out if he is or not to see if we can trust Obi before we base any actions on what he says.

The only thing i would say about this, is that is how we have intepreted the clues. Agreed though that Obi is a stirrer. However, i'm willing to digest and analyse some of it to get to my conclusion of Tash

 

[Bodinki]

I think it's a mistake to base any actions on what Obi says. I genuinely believe he is ****ing with us.

To follow MITO's lead on this one...

Out of his first paragraph he says that at least one of the following are true

1) Valley is mafia (we already know 99% this isn't the case

2) Nolberto is the PI - Nobby has already denied this

3) Mikey is the meth head - we need to find out if he is or not to see if we can trust Obi before we base any actions on what he says.

Am pretty sure Obi is telling the truth that one of the three statements in each paragraph is true.
I know for a fact that one of the statements in his second paragraph is true so must conclude that the same can be said of the first.

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

That would then tell me that there is an assassin in addition to the mafia? Surely he wouldn't be paying him unless he was freelance.
That could be the hidden power mafia have, a secret member?

How many hidden powers do they have?

Silence the real PI?
Make someone kill a team mate?
Switch Investigation results?
Hire an assassin?

They do have a hidden power but we shouldn't get carried away and think they have too many. We're over complicating things.