Now that the fly-away races are over - with so many drivers out of contract for next year - I thought it would be interesting to have a place to discuss the evolution of the driver line-up towards 2017.
The older drivers have a habit recently of hanging on to their seats; Raikonnen and Massa - in my opinion - are the keys to the driver market this year. In addition I think Renault's potential may lead to a driver who is currently “stuck” taking a chance on them and freeing up a seat in the leading non-works teams.
Mercedes
Rosberg - out of contract in 2016. Has wasted the seat really for the past two years, caving in when in mattered in 2014 and rolling over in 2015. This situation I think suits Merc and Hamilton and with him having a chance to win this year, I don't see Merc letting him go.
Hamilton - Under contract for 2017, can't see him going anywhere.
Ferrari
Vettel - Under contract for 2017 - not going anywhere
Raikonen - Now living year by year - Generally starts slowly and then responds to pressure around contract time, by picking up his pace and signing a new 1 year deal. Has started better this year, but you still feel that it's time for someone else to have a go. Getting on well with Vettel may give him another stay of execution.
Redbull/Torro Rosso
I've put these guys together because their futures are very much intertwined.
Ricciardo - Seems like RB have some kind of option on him for next year - Has driven very well since coming in to F1 and kicked on a level once at the senior team. Really deserves to be in a better seat, but I expect him to stay next year with the possibility that new rules + an improving Renault engine will result in that seat being at Red Bull.
Kvyat - probably has a long term/low cost deal, but that doesn't mean much - Probably promoted a year too early, but no real sign of increasing consistency yet. I think he's worth a seat, but I don't think it will be here - needs to do a Perez and find a less pressurised drive I think.
Vestappen - probably has a long term/low cost deal- The man most likely to move up the grid, I expect into a RedBull, with a bumper new deal at Kvyat's expense.
Sainz - probably has a long term/low cost deal - I expect him to stay for a third year at Torro Rosso, but not a fourth.
McLaren
Alonso - Under contract for 2017 - Despite the lack of car/engine performance I expect him to stay and see the project through. From here, he’s only getting a Championship car by working with a team to develop one – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sign a new deal at McLaren
Button - On a one year contract extension - Similarly to Alonso, he's experienced the pain and you'd expect him to want to hang around to try and get a few more race wins. May find himself under pressure from Stoffel Vandoorne, who would be considerably cheaper. To be honest if I was Ron, I'd be bringing in Vandoorne to get him some experience before Championships become a possibility (I'd hate myself for it though).
Williams
Massa - On a one year extension ending this year - Been around a long time and still driving at around the level of the car. No idea what's happening here. May be under threat of Mercedes wanting to place Wehrlein at a team higher up the grid.
Bottas - On a one year extension ending this year - Has spoken a lot about wanting to move up the grid, but I can't say that his performances really merit that. Re-signing at Williams looks like his best bet right now, either that or gamble on Renault.
Force India
Perez – No idea of contract situation – Is driving relatively well and doesn’t seem to be under any more danger. Could see him going to Williams if a spot opens up for a similar seat with a little more money, or maybe taking a gamble on Renault.
Hulkenberg – Under contract until 2017 – Will see this out I think.
Haas
Grosjean – Signed a one year deal to 2016, although it sounds like Haas have options on him for future years - Another driver worthy of a better seat. May have a chance at Ferrari if Raikonen leaves, otherwise back to Renault if they start to improve? If not I expect him to wait a little longer here.
Gutierrez – On loan from Ferrari, but I don’t know how long his contract is with them – Not much to say here as I don’t really understand what Ferrari are doing here.
Renault
I’m expecting them to improve dramatically next year, now that the team has some investment.
Magnussen – On a one year deal – Has started well and I’d expect him to seal an extension, even if they decide to bring in a better/more experienced driver.
Palmer – On a one year deal I think – Very early days and it would be harsh to judge him too soon, but if Renault do improve, it seems logical to me they’d want to bring in some more experience, or even a lead driver. I could see Button, Grosjean, Kyvat, Bottas or maybe even Perez or Hulkenberg here next year.
Sauber/Manor
The “show me the money” seats, very hard to predict if the seats will even exist next year, let alone who will be in them.
Wehrlein – on loan from Merc, where he has a long term deal – Has started well, if he has a good year I think Merc will try and place him in a better team with their engine.
Haryanto - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Sounds like he’s running out of money already, can’t see him seeing the year out, let alone being around next season. Gone by summer and back for a one off for the Malaysian GP I think.
Nasr - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Will be back next year as long as the dollars keep rolling in. Going ok, but could do with adding some consistency to give him a chance of spending his money higher up the grid (Force India or Haas maybe)?
Ericsson - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Surely someone will outbid him eventually?
On the outside looking in
Stoffel Vandoorne – Contracted to McLaren for at least 2 more years – The momentum behind him is building and I’m sure he will be in F1 next year – with no-one wanting a Honda engine, that surely means he will take Button’s seat at McLaren.
Pierre Gasly – Next in line in the RB driver programme, has tested a TR and will likely be in their second seat next year.
Alex Lynn – If one (or both) of the Williams drivers leaves, he would have a chance of being promoted from the test team. Needs also to do well in GP2 this year.
Someone rich – possibly whoever replaces Haryanto in a few races time.
The older drivers have a habit recently of hanging on to their seats; Raikonnen and Massa - in my opinion - are the keys to the driver market this year. In addition I think Renault's potential may lead to a driver who is currently “stuck” taking a chance on them and freeing up a seat in the leading non-works teams.
Mercedes
Rosberg - out of contract in 2016. Has wasted the seat really for the past two years, caving in when in mattered in 2014 and rolling over in 2015. This situation I think suits Merc and Hamilton and with him having a chance to win this year, I don't see Merc letting him go.
Hamilton - Under contract for 2017, can't see him going anywhere.
Ferrari
Vettel - Under contract for 2017 - not going anywhere
Raikonen - Now living year by year - Generally starts slowly and then responds to pressure around contract time, by picking up his pace and signing a new 1 year deal. Has started better this year, but you still feel that it's time for someone else to have a go. Getting on well with Vettel may give him another stay of execution.
Redbull/Torro Rosso
I've put these guys together because their futures are very much intertwined.
Ricciardo - Seems like RB have some kind of option on him for next year - Has driven very well since coming in to F1 and kicked on a level once at the senior team. Really deserves to be in a better seat, but I expect him to stay next year with the possibility that new rules + an improving Renault engine will result in that seat being at Red Bull.
Kvyat - probably has a long term/low cost deal, but that doesn't mean much - Probably promoted a year too early, but no real sign of increasing consistency yet. I think he's worth a seat, but I don't think it will be here - needs to do a Perez and find a less pressurised drive I think.
Vestappen - probably has a long term/low cost deal- The man most likely to move up the grid, I expect into a RedBull, with a bumper new deal at Kvyat's expense.
Sainz - probably has a long term/low cost deal - I expect him to stay for a third year at Torro Rosso, but not a fourth.
McLaren
Alonso - Under contract for 2017 - Despite the lack of car/engine performance I expect him to stay and see the project through. From here, he’s only getting a Championship car by working with a team to develop one – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sign a new deal at McLaren
Button - On a one year contract extension - Similarly to Alonso, he's experienced the pain and you'd expect him to want to hang around to try and get a few more race wins. May find himself under pressure from Stoffel Vandoorne, who would be considerably cheaper. To be honest if I was Ron, I'd be bringing in Vandoorne to get him some experience before Championships become a possibility (I'd hate myself for it though).
Williams
Massa - On a one year extension ending this year - Been around a long time and still driving at around the level of the car. No idea what's happening here. May be under threat of Mercedes wanting to place Wehrlein at a team higher up the grid.
Bottas - On a one year extension ending this year - Has spoken a lot about wanting to move up the grid, but I can't say that his performances really merit that. Re-signing at Williams looks like his best bet right now, either that or gamble on Renault.
Force India
Perez – No idea of contract situation – Is driving relatively well and doesn’t seem to be under any more danger. Could see him going to Williams if a spot opens up for a similar seat with a little more money, or maybe taking a gamble on Renault.
Hulkenberg – Under contract until 2017 – Will see this out I think.
Haas
Grosjean – Signed a one year deal to 2016, although it sounds like Haas have options on him for future years - Another driver worthy of a better seat. May have a chance at Ferrari if Raikonen leaves, otherwise back to Renault if they start to improve? If not I expect him to wait a little longer here.
Gutierrez – On loan from Ferrari, but I don’t know how long his contract is with them – Not much to say here as I don’t really understand what Ferrari are doing here.
Renault
I’m expecting them to improve dramatically next year, now that the team has some investment.
Magnussen – On a one year deal – Has started well and I’d expect him to seal an extension, even if they decide to bring in a better/more experienced driver.
Palmer – On a one year deal I think – Very early days and it would be harsh to judge him too soon, but if Renault do improve, it seems logical to me they’d want to bring in some more experience, or even a lead driver. I could see Button, Grosjean, Kyvat, Bottas or maybe even Perez or Hulkenberg here next year.
Sauber/Manor
The “show me the money” seats, very hard to predict if the seats will even exist next year, let alone who will be in them.
Wehrlein – on loan from Merc, where he has a long term deal – Has started well, if he has a good year I think Merc will try and place him in a better team with their engine.
Haryanto - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Sounds like he’s running out of money already, can’t see him seeing the year out, let alone being around next season. Gone by summer and back for a one off for the Malaysian GP I think.
Nasr - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Will be back next year as long as the dollars keep rolling in. Going ok, but could do with adding some consistency to give him a chance of spending his money higher up the grid (Force India or Haas maybe)?
Ericsson - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Surely someone will outbid him eventually?
On the outside looking in
Stoffel Vandoorne – Contracted to McLaren for at least 2 more years – The momentum behind him is building and I’m sure he will be in F1 next year – with no-one wanting a Honda engine, that surely means he will take Button’s seat at McLaren.
Pierre Gasly – Next in line in the RB driver programme, has tested a TR and will likely be in their second seat next year.
Alex Lynn – If one (or both) of the Williams drivers leaves, he would have a chance of being promoted from the test team. Needs also to do well in GP2 this year.
Someone rich – possibly whoever replaces Haryanto in a few races time.
