Daily Racing Thread Thursday 30th. July 2020

Two jumps meetings as well

Youreacert 12 30 southwell 6/1 , looked in need of the run lto here ......

I don't usually post on this day, because any mention of the Nassau Stakes reminds me of 2008 and the worst ride I have ever seen any human being give any horse. Like Nass, Kevin Manning's performance that day will linger forever in my personal Room 101: not content with taking Lush Lashes up every cul-de-sac in Sussex, the little hobgoblin actually dropped the reins 50 yards out when he still had a squeak of winning. He's lucky I don't bear grudges.

Anyway, a mild rant and a lukewarm selection for tomorrow's race (3.15). Sections of the media are pointing out that, like today's Sussex, the race has been dominated by 3yos for the past ten years or so. Perfectly true, and utterly unhelpful. I find it astonishing that experienced journalists are trotting this stuff out in a season which is completely unlike any other (with the possible exception of the foot and mouth year) in living memory. The three year old programme has been distorted out of recognition - nobody's fault, and I'd say that the BHA have probably made the best of a bad job. But the progressions and rhythms of the Pattern system have been almost completely lost, and you simply have no idea how good, bad or indifferent the 2020 three year olds are. Siskin looked to be beaten on merit by the two older horses today in the Sussex, and I don't see how anyone can suggest sensible ratings for any English, Irish or French classic run so far.

Extending the theory, I'm leaning gently towards Magic Wand tomorrow. There must be doubts about Fancy Blue's Diane form. and I thought that Magic Wand ran very well in the Eclipse without being given much of a chance to win it. Faster ground should help her, and I can see Frankie trying to nick the race from the front. She's a tough old bird, and I don't expect her to be out of the first three - if the Betfair exchange are offering the 3-places option tomorrow, she should figure at about even money, and I reckon that's a bet.

Love that "She's a tough old bird" bit!

6pm Musselburgh - Valentino Sunrise


It has a nice name.

Why did you have to mention Manning and that race? Why?

Because you don't have a monopoly on suffering. Man up.

Haha. Hope you don’t get the same sort of issue tomorrow with the selection!!

6.45 Galway- Wonder Laish- 6/1 ew

I have been told ARAMAX they are very confident Altho no 4yo since 2000 has won this however I landed on wonder Laish! A very attractive come back run, not knocked about but Robbie power at all, all hands and heels stuff for a good closing 3rd behind Aramon. Is weighted very nicely and they were even talking last year about a potential champion hurdle bid for this horse (obv not up to that standard but shows how much they think of him) but imo has been absolutely plotted for this race is a great ew bet to nothing. With a win very likely. Felix Deisjy lacks the big handicap field experience, Hunters call the bounce factor is worrying, Aramon carries to much weighT and buildmeupbuttercup can’t jump to save her life (if she does jump round- she could be very interesting) Tudor City up 8lbs in a more competitive race than last year so I have ended up with Wonder Laish and there is also abit of money for him too.

The Richmond Stakes looks a bit weaker than I have seen in some years.

William Haggas has the obvious looking one in Yazaman, who has chased home on of the best 2YO's this year in Tactical, owned by the Queen. That form leaves him top on Official Ratings and the Kodiac horse ran twice at 5F before stepping up to 6F last time, so the Goodwood 6F should not be a problem for him. The obvious question is whether he is nailed on at 7/4?

The first instinct is probably to say yes but it's not a race Haggas has landed often, with Saayyer his sole success in 2013.

The Hannons have farmed this to an extent over the years but they have nothing in this year's renewal, so who else could win it?

Mark Johnston sends Coventry runner-up Qadder in here but he was held by Yazaman last time when 4th to Tactical in the July Stakes and plenty of these first time impressive winners for Johnston disappoint moving forward.

Lauded went to Royal Ascot very fancied in places and was only 8/1 in the front rank of the Coventry betting. Beaten 6 lengths there, he is behind Qadder on that form and looking back to Lauded's debut win, there is only one win as an Evens favourite in a Thirsk Maiden to show for 12 subsequent runs and all 11 of the others were unplaced efforts.

The Coventry itself isn't working out that horny really. 3rd home was last next time out and the winners to have come from the race are at a terrible level. I feel that Coventry suffered from being at a time where few of the better colts were ready to rock.

Gussy Mac has won his last two but the runner up in his latest race, Significantly, was disappointing today and the Roger Teal horse tackles 6F for the first time here.

Admiral Nelson impressed me on debut and I had an ante-post play on him for the Coventry at 8/1. He went off a silly price at 5/2 at Royal Ascot and disappointed in midfield. Maybe too soon to write him off after being hurried up in class so soon but his first race isn't working out as you would have wanted, with the onlywinner to emerge from it, Merchant's Quay, only 4th behind a 66/1 winner of the Railway Stakes.

Talbot comes in after a win and two duck eggs and is the outsider.

That leaves Supremacy as the only one who could be an alternative for me.

Supremacy was 6th on debut behind Twaasol on debut and that winner, plus the runner up went on to win next time. Twaasol was disappointing upped in grade next time though. Supremacy returned to Windsor on his second start and hosed up, making all the running to win by over 3 lengths. On the clock, only the favourite has a better speed rating. I might have been tempted by Supremacy but the Cox stable 2/38 at the moment. Mind you they have had 8 seconds in that spell, so are probably in better nick than the winning numbers suggest. Supremacy has 13 lbs to find with Yazaman on form so far though and I can't quite go against the Haggas horse simply because Supremacy is only 11/2 for winning a maiden and last year I got 15/2 on Clive Cox's Golden Horde, who had come in rated 10 lbs higher than Supremacy on 103 after a good 5th in the Coventry the time before.

2.15 Goodwood Yazaman 15/8

For the double I selected Captain Bligh. The Gosden colt made a low key career start before a better effort next time when runner up. Off the mark at the third time of asking he was awarded a mark that didn't seem to suggest he progressed much from run 2 to run 3 but given that he wasn't far behind Master Of The Seas who went on to win the Superlative in grand style, the assessor would probably have upgraded Captain Bligh if he could. This is a faster surface for Captain Bligh but he had his field well whipped last time, even if they probably weren't great and he should really defy a mark of just 87 if his run behind one of the leading lights for the 2000 Guineas means anything. He could even feasibly be better for better ground.

3.45 Goodwood Captain Bligh 2/1

A soapy bubble on the pair.

I'm going to back Mark Johnson to get another winner with Zabeel Champion @ 5-1 in the 1.45 handicap

Morning

5.30 Musselburgh-Economic Crisis @ 9-2 [Bet 365]

Old girl still got a bit of spring in her step

rainermariarilke said:

I don't usually post on this day, because any mention of the Nassau Stakes reminds me of 2008 and the worst ride I have ever seen any human being give any horse. Like Nass, Kevin Manning's performance that day will linger forever in my personal Room 101: not content with taking Lush Lashes up every cul-de-sac in Sussex, the little hobgoblin actually dropped the reins 50 yards out when he still had a squeak of winning. He's lucky I don't bear grudges.

Anyway, a mild rant and a lukewarm selection for tomorrow's race (3.15). Sections of the media are pointing out that, like today's Sussex, the race has been dominated by 3yos for the past ten years or so. Perfectly true, and utterly unhelpful. I find it astonishing that experienced journalists are trotting this stuff out in a season which is completely unlike any other (with the possible exception of the foot and mouth year) in living memory. The three year old programme has been distorted out of recognition - nobody's fault, and I'd say that the BHA have probably made the best of a bad job. But the progressions and rhythms of the Pattern system have been almost completely lost, and you simply have no idea how good, bad or indifferent the 2020 three year olds are. Siskin looked to be beaten on merit by the two older horses today in the Sussex, and I don't see how anyone can suggest sensible ratings for any English, Irish or French classic run so far.

Extending the theory, I'm leaning gently towards Magic Wand tomorrow. There must be doubts about Fancy Blue's Diane form. and I thought that Magic Wand ran very well in the Eclipse without being given much of a chance to win it. Faster ground should help her, and I can see Frankie trying to nick the race from the front. She's a tough old bird, and I don't expect her to be out of the first three - if the Betfair exchange are offering the 3-places option tomorrow, she should figure at about even money, and I reckon that's a bet.

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Remember it well, had 400 on Lush Lashes. My favourite season following racing, the amount of class animals about was unreal.

Looking forward to the Gordon Stakes, the race has produced some top horses in recent years, mainly horses who went on to be top class the following years, Crystal Ocean, Ulysses, Highland Reel, Noble Mission, Harbinger and Conduit. Im hoping English King is the one but hes a terrible price, I dont expect the Derby form to hold up but the market is also strongly of that opinion. Al Aasy is a nice enough type but his form looks a bit short in an above average G3. Khalifa Sat was well placed in the Derby but hes probably the one thats overpriced here, he at least looks progressive unlike Mogul and id have him 2nd favourite but I think English King has more potential and I hope he wins well.

I was close to backing William Bligh for the Pat Eddery Stakes last week, thankfully I didnt as they decided to go for the easier option in this nursery. I noticed he was one of Becketts early nominations for Ascot, along with Time Scale, so hes been well regarded from early on, and his 2nd run behind Master of The Seas was excellent. Won his maiden well and a mark of 87 is very likely to give him a few pounds in hand, but not my kind of bet at under 2/1 in a 12 runner handicap at Goodwood, could easily be one lurking who also has plenty in hand. His prominent racing style should at least see him stay out of trouble which is a big plus in a race like this and he deserves to be a short price fav. Might be the type of horse who ends up being sold to Hong Kong.

Benoit Blanc said:

I was close to backing William Bligh for the Pat Eddery Stakes last week, thankfully I didnt as they decided to go for the easier option in this nursery. I noticed he was one of Becketts early nominations for Ascot, along with Time Scale, so hes been well regarded from early on, and his 2nd run behind Master of The Seas was excellent. Won his maiden well and a mark of 87 is very likely to give him a few pounds in hand, but not my kind of bet at under 2/1 in a 12 runner handicap at Goodwood, could easily be one lurking who also has plenty in hand. His prominent racing style should at least see him stay out of trouble which is a big plus in a race like this and he deserves to be a short price fav. Might be the type of horse who ends up being sold to Hong Kong.

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Who do you fancy in the Nassau

I've gone mad today, absolutely bonkers if you will

Handicap Each Way Lucky15
Glamorous Anna
Lucander
William Bligh
Golden Bear

Group Patent

Qaader
English King
Magic Wand


Glamorous Anna race like a horse much better than her handicap mark for much of her win at Windsor, but when she was asked to go about settling the race, she was still very wayward and showed signs of temperament or greenness. Now Goodwood isn't a place for that sort of behaviour, however I think this race could be perfect for this strong travelling filly. She is drawn highest of the natural pace angles, so should be able to get across to the rail, and with cheekpieces on, she might well be a lot straighter than we saw last time out. I like her form on her run with Spanish Angel in the penultimate start too, where she showed enough pace to cross over from the low draw and still looked like the winner before shying away from the rail close home.

Lucander has been a disappointment, however that means that I am getting a big price, and his penultimate run was decent enough. Today drawn wide I am hoping they can get a clear passage in the final couple of furlongs from a held up in touch run. He looks like the sort of horse who can pop up in a handicap off this mark, and today I think the race will be set up perfectly for him. A late flourish should see him pass plenty of these. Hopefully the lot of them!

William Bligh has been already mentioned on the thread, and is an obvious one. I like horses to the top of the handicap in the 7 furlong + nurseries at this point of the season. He has looked classy and I think he will outclass them here.

Golden Bear has had the cut, and like Digital yesterday (how unlucky was he to get done like that!) I expect it will bring around improvement. Unlike that horse yesterday, they are looking to exploit a handicap mark that was given for runs where he wasn't necessarily putting it all in!! He has a hotpot to beat, but I don't like fillies backing up quickly from a run and I do think this race is more open than it looks on paper. From middle draw he should be in the thick of the action, and I am hopeful that he will be more resolute today when asked for his finishing effort.

The group races are more obvious, I think Qaader is an ideal horse for that race, English King is the class animal in the Gordon Stakes and Magic Wand has arguably the best form in the book and I think she will be ridden more forward today in a race that doesn't look to have that much pace in it.

Anyone knowledgeable enough about breeding to know if Nazeef should be suited by 12f? She wasn't stopping last time at Newmarket

Masher 19 said:

Who do you fancy in the Nassau

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I think Fancy Blue is the right favourite, 3yos have a great record in the race, Obrien and Coolmore also and this is effectively an Obrien horse, not rushing to back her at 5/2 though. I like Nazeef and got a good turn off her last time but she has a mile pedigree and this is a stronger race, think her winning run might come to an end here. Magic Wand is rock solid but she rarely wins and im happy to take her on. Youd imagine Deirdre has been aimed at this after winning it last year, she has been highly tried since then and this is more her level against her own sex, her run in Saudi is a bit disappointing on the face of it but maybe its not as bad as it looks all things considered. I expect her to leave that Eclipse run well behind and she looks the bet to me at 11/2. Queen Power is worth a small saver at 11s.