Daily Racing Thread Thursday 30th. July 2020

Goodwood

15:15 Deirdre 11/2

Galway

18:45 Zoffalee 40/1 e/w (six places)

19:45 Moyode Gold 14/1 e/w

 

At 10 furlongs the sire is 12% strike rate. At 12 furlongs he is 10.5%

I have run the nicks through the proform database too, so Invincible Spirit out of Dubawi mare

Distance Runners Winners
5 5 0
6 9 1
7 11 2
8 8 5
10 2 0

They've not run further than 10 furlongs. The 8 furlong races were all Nazeef too!

So I would say that it is inconclusive to say the least, but it does look like more of a mile pedigree to me.

 

Day Three at Goodwood does not look very inspiring when just looking at the small field sizes for most of the features but some of them never had big fields in normal times.

In the opener, it looks like a choice between the improving Bal Mal, near the bottom of the weights looking for a fifth win on the bounce with a 6lb penalty for his latest win at Chepstow, or the topweight ELECTRIC LADYLAND, raised 5lb for winning at Windsor and previously a winner over course and distance. My money means you now know the second for the forecast...

There are no qualifications in bookmaking needed to understand how the Richmond Stakes has been priced up. Yazaman has not been out of the first two in three starts, finishing ahead of Qaader when beaten by Tactical at HQ in the July Stakes following a second in the Windsor Castle to the same opponent. Admiral Nelson never went a yard in the Coventry at the Royal meeting, finishing just behind Lauded and well behind runner-up Qaader. Punters will have to decide if they want to give the O’Brien or Dascombe colts another chance given that both of them were impressive on debut. The Qaader form lines make the form pick Yazaman, but I think I will just watch at the price.

If only there was a crowd at the track for the Gordon Stakes. Relative to the actual quality of the Classic generation, this Group 3 has attracted a very interesting sextet. Al Aasy is presumably here for a St Leger trial after winning the Bahrain Trophy but has to give a penalty away to four horses that ran in the Derby. Khalifa Sat fared best of those at Epsom coming home second having always been in the front rank whilst English King and Mogul never got going until far too late and Highland Chief was an also-ran. Little has happened to advertise the Derby form since it was run and the market suggests that English King may turn out best on a track where being up with the leaders, as he was at Lingfield, will see him rediscover that impressive form.

Just as the Sussex Stakes provided a clash of the generations, the Nassau Stakes provides one with Prix de Diane victress Fancy Blue taking on the older fillies and mares. Whilst the three year old is a Classic winner, it is still questionable whether the form is that good. She reversed Irish 1000 Guineas form with Peaceful at Chantilly and Ryan Moore has chosen her but a tea towel would have covered the first four home that day. It was not a difficult choice for Moore as Magic Wand is almost a career bridesmaid. Nazeef extended her winning sequence to six winning the Falmouth at HQ, previously had Queen Power and Lavender’s Blue behind at Royal Ascot and I think she will add a seventh win over this extra trip at the expense of last year’s winner Deirdre, who was behind Magic Wand in the Eclipse. If Crowley rides Nazeef like a non-stayer (or she is a non-stayer) anything could happen.

 

no idea about breeding but for me like Mohaather yesterday she is one of the most impressive horses that I have seen this season.
following that logic she wins the Nassau today.

 

I reckon like the first day those at the top of the market will win, but it's choosing the right ones. For what it's worth my selections are:

2.15 YAZAMAN
2.45 ENGLISH KING
3.15 FANCY BLUE
3.45 WILLIAM BLIGH

In the 4.55 team Crisford have a runner. I've been following them for a couple of weeks now with very good results. They're placing their horses really well (not sure how many they train). The Fav will be very hard to beat but he only ran 3 days ago whilst my selection has had a nice 33 day break. DIFFERANT FACE 10/1 is my solid ew bet.

 

1.10 The course form of CASPIAN QUEEN suggests this is the one to beat.
1.45 If Ryan Moore doesn't win the first then I think he will win the second on board ZABEEL CHAMPION
2.15 Slight preference for YAZAMAN but I think a dark horse at a bigger price is LAUDED
2.45 Very open race. I think English King is too short a price but might well win. AL AASY the big danger with jockey of the season, Jim Crowley on board.
3.15 NAZEEF with QUEEN POWER again a dark horse at a bigger price

 

I've always liked betting at Goodwood. (cue the other ones all finding trouble)

 

Great start Nass, you were spot on with GA.

 

Quite a hot Nassau though, and whatever wins it will have to be spot on today I reckon.

 

The second one a non runner classes as a win for me .

 

The Gordon Stakes might not tell us much about the Epsom Derby strength because 4 of the 6 runners are representing the form and are more likely to simply reveal if any of them were unlucky in being trapped well behind the pacesetter and winner Serpentine.

Khalifa Sat was closest to the pace and may have been flattered by his second placing, while English King was finishing best of those from off the pace. Given that the Balding horse had only about three parts of a length in hand of English King, it is easy to reason that the Walker horse will reverse that form today. By the same token it is hard to make a case for Mogul or Highland Chief to get a better result with English King today.

Is it plain sailing for English King today then? The odds say yes but those odds of 5/4 won't get us rich.

Al Aasy is the one who didn't run in the Derby because it was considered too soon for him. He was 5th to Mishriff in the Newmarket Stakes when favourite Waldkonig flopped but the winner that day went on to win the French Derby. Al Aasy trotted up in an awful looking Novice race next time and then won the Bahrain Trophy nicely enough after that. His form is probably a shade short for now but he could have more to come and he clearly stays well. The 3 lb penalty is something he could have done without and I am not sure dropping a furlong at Goodwood is ideal for the son of Sea The Stars.

Subjectivist had looked pretty exposed last season but he has come out and looked improved this year. He needs to improve again though and Mark Johnston has has had him up to 14F and down to 11F on his last two starts, so his ideal trip seems unknown for now. In the end I couldn't bet on a horse who won at Hamilton last time, no matter how much the trainer loves a winner at Glorious Goodwood.

In the end I had a token bet on Al Aasy in the hope that he improves. With stamina assured, it is hoped that the jockey will take the bull by the horns and go out to ensure a strongly run race. If he is held up, it is probably going to be a fools errand, with English King likely to quicken better. The Walker horse did win the Lingfield Derby trial in good style but the form of the race is weak looking, with only Berkshire Rocco in the runner up spot of any real value.

2.45 Goodwood Al Aasy 9/2 to hopefully set a testing gallop.

 

Who do you fancy? Got to contribute a bit yourself sometimes. Tipping losers is no problem, no one will complain, I should know. It's the spirit of the thread that is important IMHO.

 

Nice one Reebs, keep it going!

 

"That leaves Supremacy as the only one who could be an alternative for me."

As always, you narrow it down to two and the other one wins. Supremacy looked a real speedball there.

Yazaman struggled to go the pace and was hard at it after 3F. He stayed on well enough to nab second but it was a one horse race. Qadder is yet another Johnston 2YO who has stalled after a promising start and Admiral Nelson was just an early O'Brien horse who hasn't gone forward.

Supremacy looks worth a shot at one of the 6F Group 1 races after that. Kicking my own arse here.

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Oh ****, they are holding Al Aasy up.

 

You can add Frankie to the had a nightmare journey list

 

Al Aasy just wasn't good enough anyway. Did move well at one stage but he's no danger to Santiago in the St Leger

It was a funny race and never helped unravel the Epsom Derby form.

English King was under the cosh a long way from home and stank the place out really. The other Epsom runners made heavy weather of overhauling a 103 rated Hamilton winner and the form looks whiffy to me.

That is why we probably didn't see English King taking on Enable in the King George. Trainer knew he wouldn't have had a snowball's chance in Hell.

Balding should have run Kameko in this today