The EU debate - Part III

[Stan]

and to make more money out of the UK

 

[NSIS]

It may well be pants for a few years but I don't see us going to oblivion.

Technically probably a recession but we will recover.

If things are terrible I'll go abroad

Yes, but it didn't have to be like this. All this pain and grief, for what?

I'm not claiming that the U.K. will never recover from this. I do believe, however that it will takes years. Maybe even decades - maybe never, fully.

You may have 'got your country back' but what will be left of it, especially if the nutters go for the so called 'hard Brexit' is not looking so good!

 

[The Prime Minister]

Yes, but it didn't have to be like this. All this pain and grief, for what?

I'm not claiming that the U.K. will never recover from this. I do believe, however that it will takes years. Maybe even decades - maybe never, fully.

You may have 'got your country back' but what will be left of it, especially if the nutters go for the so called 'hard Brexit' is not looking so good!

Why will a Full Brexit not be good,

 

[NSIS]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...ld-make-you-worry-about-europe-s-other-giants

Shares of Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, have lost more than half their value in the last year, and have been subject toexceptional volatility. Its bonds have also had a rough ride.

The decline is fueling lots of speculation about the adequacy of the bank’s capital cushion, its strategic positioning, the need to dispose of non-core units and its relations with the German government. More generally, the bank’s struggles hold important lessons for investors in the European banking sector, as some institutions continue to struggle to overcome the legacy of the global financial crisis.

Deutsche bank is battling three simultaneous headwinds that also are roiling other financial institutions:

• Ultra-low interest rates, including negative ones on a significant portion of European and Japanese government bonds, are undermining the ability of the bank to generate steady income from traditional intermediation activities.
• A persistently sluggish economy is putting pressure on the creditworthiness of some of the banks’ borrowers.
• Financial-market distortions, including interventions by central banks that were deemed improbable not so long ago, together with tighter regulation, have eroded the scope for revenue generation from capital market activities.

These headwinds are not going to die down soon. As a result, banks must have, and must be perceived to have, robust capital cushions to avoid the kind of rough treatment by markets that Deutsche Bank continues to experience. This is particularly true of the European banking system, where, unlike its U.S. counterpart, comprehensive efforts to overcome past slippages were hampered at times by the urgent need to address a sovereign debt crisis that even threatened the integrity of the euro zone.


Market volatility is amplified by the more fluid capital structure brought about by the influence of new “hybrid” instruments, such as CoCos (contingent convertible bonds that turn into equity at a pre-specified price level). These were designed to counter the systemic effects of strains in the banking sector, including by reducing the need for costly government rescue plans. Yet they can also raise additional concerns about shareholder dilution when markets are already under pressure.

Bank investors have also been reminded that legal issues remain, most recently by the $14 billion penalty claim against Deutsche Bank announced earlier this month by the U.S. Department of Justice. This disclosure, along with the cross-selling scandal at Wells Fargo, is a further setback for banks that are still struggling to regain the public’s trust and respect.

It's no wonder that European bank chiefs -- including, this week,Credit Suisse Chief Executive Tidjane Tiam -- have highlighted the challenges facing the sector in the months ahead. Banks must not only realign their businesses to compete in a tough economic and financial environment, they must contend with a regulatory system that, responding to past excessive risk taking, is focused on a multi-year effort to push these companies into a less-exciting “utility model.” And all this while trying to regain public confidence.

Deutsche Bank may be an extreme case but its travails are indicative of a broader reality for the European banking sector as a whole. Unlike their U.S. counterparts, some European institutions haven't regained a sufficiently firm post-crisis footing. That means investors will need strong stomachs as they seek to differentiate among companies and opportunities in a sector that will inevitably remain vulnerable to bouts of unsettling market contagion, volatility shocks and reputational risk.

Deutsche Bank being up financial **** creek is hardly news. It's been going on for ages!..

Uk banks are hardly much better of!...

 

[NSIS]

Why will a Full Brexit not be good,

Work it out for yourself, Kustard. Despite Tubby posting crap from The Fail, the simple fact is that some 44% of our export trade goes to the EU. We would ultimately hurt more than them in any trade war.

If the banks lose their passporting rights and leave London, that will cost the treasury billions in revenue. The City accounts for something like 12% of the entire UK GDP,...

 

[DMD]

Deutsche Bank being up financial **** creek is hardly news. It's been going on for ages!..

Uk banks are hardly much better of!...

That's part of the point. A lot of the stuff blamed on brexit would have likely occurred anyway, such as the banks threatening to leave, plus the EU we'd have remained in, is a basket case that needs to change.

 

[NSIS]

That's part of the point. A lot of the stuff blamed on brexit would have likely occurred anyway, plus the EU we'd have remained in, is a basket case that needs to change.

The EU will do fine. The Euro, I'm not so sure.

However, any failure of the single currency would have catastrophic global consequences. You could even be looking at total global economic meltdown.

Incidentally, as I know from friends, that was much closer to,happening in 2008 than most people realise. The system was a whisker away from complete collapse!

 

[The Prime Minister]

Work it out for yourself, Kustard. Despite Tubby posting crap from The Fail, the simple fact is that some 44% of our export trade goes to the EU. We would ultimately hurt more than them in any trade war.

If the banks lose their passporting rights and leave London, that will cost the treasury billions in revenue. The City accounts for something like 12% of the entire UK GDP,...

WE both know we will not get passporting rights, as the Gov will not allow free movement of people and France wants the Bank business.
So may as well fully leave the EU.

 

[DMD]

The EU will do fine. The Euro, I'm not so sure.

However, any failure of the single currency would have catastrophic global consequences. You could even be looking at total global economic meltdown.

Incidentally, as I know from friends, that was much closer to,happening in 2008 than most people realise. The system was a whisker away from complete collapse!

Could the EU survive a Euro collapse?

 

[NSIS]

WE both know we will not get passporting rights, as the Gov will not allow free movement of people and France wants the Bank business.
So may as well fully leave the EU.

If May and her Gvt are truly stupid enough to go down that road then the UK will be in serious financial trouble!..

I'm hoping some remaining semblance of what used to be called common sense will prevail. However, common sense is not so common with this administration,!

 

[petersaxton]

I wouldn't make any kind of assumptions about anything as everything is up for negotiation. The biggest certainty is that the polls say that people are worried about immigration from the EU. I dont think the populations of other countries are too worried about what the UK wants. This is why the EU is undemocratic - the people who make the decisions don't care what people think.

 

[Tobes]

Could the EU survive a Euro collapse?

Of course it could, as the power of the trading block would remain the same.

The Euro won't fail completely anyway, there's likely to be withdrawals from it by the nations who should never have had their fragile economies tied to the likes of France and Germany in the first place, but it won't completely collapse.

 

[Sharpe*]

Yes, but it didn't have to be like this. All this pain and grief, for what?

I'm not claiming that the U.K. will never recover from this. I do believe, however that it will takes years. Maybe even decades - maybe never, fully.

You may have 'got your country back' but what will be left of it, especially if the nutters go for the so called 'hard Brexit' is not looking so good!

I guess we'll have to see mate

I look forward to skimming through any new trade deals should the information be made available to us (probably not!).

 

[DMD]

Of course it could, as the power of the trading block would remain the same.

The Euro won't fail completely anyway, there's likely to be withdrawals from it by the nations who should never have had their fragile economies tied to the likes of France and Germany in the first place, but it won't completely collapse.

So it alone would survive NSIS's 'catastrophic global meltdown'.

 

[PowerSpurs]

I dont think the populations of other countries are too worried about what the UK wants. This is why the EU is undemocratic - the people who make the decisions don't care what people think.

Non sequitur x 2. For that to be logical you would have to think the EU leaders are going to be worried by what the UK wants. And democracy isn't about doing what the people think they want, its about doing what they would want if they knew and understood all the facts. That's why our MPs are representatives not delegates.

 

[Tobes]

I wouldn't make any kind of assumptions about anything as everything is up for negotiation. The biggest certainty is that the polls say that people are worried about immigration from the EU. I dont think the populations of other countries are too worried about what the UK wants. This is why the EU is undemocratic - the people who make the decisions don't care what people think.

So the populous of EU countries aren't arsed about what we want, but the EU is somehow undemocratic for not being arsed?

What the actual ****

What polls are these btw?

 

[Tobes]

So it alone would survive NSIS's 'catastrophic global meltdown'.

I don't agree that there'll be a global meltdown off the back of Greece or Italy's current position though.

 

[PowerSpurs]

So it alone would survive NSIS's 'catastrophic global meltdown'.

Actually that is perfectly possible. External debts is Euro would be much more damaging to the holder than internal ones

 

[NSIS]

Could the EU survive a Euro collapse?

It's gone too far IMO.

Say, for instance, Greece left the single currency. They owe hundreds of billions of Euros to banks, institutions, and Gvts all over the world. If they departed the single currency, they would probably have to readopt the Drachma. The problem then is that the Drachma would immediately be massively devalued due to Greeces' situation. Probably 40+% against The Euro.

So, how would Greece pay back the billions of Euros it owes? Simple answer, it couldn't! All the people it owed money too would have to write off the debt taking a massive hit to their balance sheets in already tough times.

Now, that's just Greece. Imagine Italy, Spain, doing the same thing! Remember this money is owed globally to investors East and West! The result would be almost certain global financial meltdown!...

 

[DMD]

It's gone too far IMO.

Say, for instance, Greece left the single currency. They owe hundreds of billions of Euros to banks, institutions, and Gvts all over the world. If they departed the single currency, they would probably have to readopt the Drachma. The problem then is that the Drachma would immediately be massively devalued due to Greeces' situation. Probably 40+% against The Euro.

So, how would Greece pay back the billions of Euros it owes? Simple answer, it couldn't! All the people it owed money too would have to write off the debt taking a massive hit to their balance sheets in already tough times.

Now, that's just Greece. Imagine Italy, Spain, doing the same thing! Remember this money is owed globally to investors East and West! The result would be almost certain global financial meltdown!...

[HASHTAG]#Tobes[/HASHTAG]
[HASHTAG]#PowerSpurs[/HASHTAG]

What say you?