I posted the same earlier in this thread. They're as bad as those who voted to leave. Last Thursday evening, I was sitting at a table in the Cheese with my youngest daughter and three of her male mates. All of us had voted remain.
Jeremy hunt wants to be conversant ive leader. The guy that pissed off a nation over student dr's.. Csn see that going well
No. The pound is 0,02c up as it stands today http://moneyweek.com/prices-news-charts/gbpusd/ The FTSE has had a 'dead cat bounce' after the massive falls since Friday morning. Which is speculators hovering up some stock that has fallen beyond what they consider to be it's rightful long term level.
FTSE isn't a great indicator of the strength of the economy unless it is surging one way or another and even then it is normally an exageration of the strength / weakness.Plus the FTSE 100 seems pretty blase about Brexit except for a small number of specific stocks i.e. banks,house builders etc. The FTSE 250 is more wooring but the one to watch is the pound a far more reliable indicator of the strength of a nations economic performance and the expected strength of said economy in the foreseeable future. For example the FTSE has been higher than it would have been due to the low interest rates available so investors have placed their cash in shares as the income stream is higher.
So it will return to its rightful long term level - ie, might have a bit of a slump short term but long term have no massive impact....
@Tobes what about the your apocalyptic prediction of interest rates rising and people getting kicked out of their homes when all the indications are is that if the interest rates are going to be moved, it would be down and not up
It's the 3rd working day post the vote and Cameron has kicked the auctioning of Article 50 into the long grass i.e. actually leaving. It's still very early days, the pound falling will increase the cost of living over time as imports will cost more, and we have a trade deficit, it's not rocket science. IF this madness is actually actioned, then strap yourself in.
Bloody 'ell - give it time. We've always said the repercussions would be felt over a long period. Tbf, I'm no economist and I have no idea what will happen in that sense. My concern has always been where we are drifting in the socio-political sense, and the auguries are pretty grim so far.
It's far more complex A) decision making is paralysed. Any business dealing with europe or financially based is looking at alternative plans or shelving plans. Hard to judge Branson.. he says 3k potential jobs shelved. B) stock markets are indicative of performance over time. This blip is indicative of worry on the day, would we trigger immediately, would someone else jump ship etc etc. The biggest indicator is the absolute slaughtering of British big and domestic banks. The case there is people know leave = their balance sheet no longer adds up so the value slash there is real. Eas y jet and the like are reactive bets. C) rating agencies slashing ratings, yield dropping etc etc express belief by not speculators but serious bodies in our economy dropping. D) competition for business is now wide open. Uk had veto on laws to prevent eu stopping London being the prime trader of euros globally. I really don't think the masses understand just how big the city of London is globally. Now uk could lose that veto and Frankfurt and Paris will be falling over themselves to grab the business. That's 100k jobs probably. I dunno... E) eu hq type business makes no sense from outside eu in the uk. D and e added together points to a movement of jobs outside uk. F) domestic business trading with europe is on tenterhooks. They need free trade to survive so uk may have to so the Norwegian model and pay eu. As we speak without knowing a UK business cannot invest so has to sit tight and batten the hatches. G) if you are still reading at this point... all of the above indicate a drop in gdp, tax and that means more taxes and spending cuts as signalled again by osbourne so he must be ****ing serious if he's said it after in this climate. ...... So.... Yeah it's good things have levelled off but the basic issues at hand have not even been scratched yet. We won't know for 2 quarters if we are officially in recession.. we already know we are btw but official word is slow. This is why farage lied and said we were headed fir one anyway.
In my view 3 things will happen. 1. Interested rates will fall in the short term to encourage spending. If anyone is mad enough to spend. 2. London property market in particular is going to stall if we activate 50 I predict it will crash as a massive glut of supply will come available as jobs move out.. over 2/3 years. 3. Inflation will rise if the pound doesn't recover quickly. Price of energy, petrol are certainly going up. Price of food might but we will see.
The actual numbers directly trading in the Euro won't be that many i would guess at a few thousand but if the banks start moving their euro traders to Frankfurt so will their researchers and other support staff and once one section of the bank has left why not others never mind the profits the banks expect to make and therefore the wages / bonuses of the traders which are taxable. When any job is lost it is damaging to the economy because other jobs always depend on that persons job to a greater or lesser extent
I hear it's a huge huge proportion of the total global trade of euros http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0WY5DB Some numbers are above but this does hint at why Morgan Stanley was asked about 2000 jobs in London.... You are right... if that part goes do you sustain a dollar trade there or do you m9ve it all? Again the vested interest is the ecb control. German and French economies carving up the spoils. To think the eu won't savage this trade to wrest control of it would be farage thinking... naive in the extreme.
Oh yes that actual trade value is huge (largest Euro trading market in their world) but i doubt it needs huge numbers of traders it is the financial effect of that trade disappearing plus the resultant effects flowing from it that worry me. The EU has always disliked Londons status as the premier financial market in europe and in particular they dislike the Euro trading position since we (rightly) refuse to accept the Euro . This and the effect of Brexit on our car manufacturers were the main triggers for me voting remain despite my dislike of the institutions of the EU
