Off Topic Mafia VIII - Mafia vs Zombies

[Brian Storm]

that is true. i am not a big fan as i think mafia can sneak in and out as can others. nobody wants to die day one so everyone bar afc will be skirting by.

Am i right that day one is the only day this time that we know 100% the lynchee dies end of.. no zombie roaming.

Putting up everyone carries the risk of somebody or a few people not voting at all which will cock it up. Then we'll target the non voters for not taking part and go on to lynch an innocent day 2 all because they found out they were straight town and couldn't be arsed. Notice that happens a lot. I've been Werewolf once and all other times town in some capacity and I'll be honest, I've enjoyed the town roles much more. Folk shouldn't **** it off, it's a great role imo.

Yep you're right on that because lynching is the first action. I presume the Zombie master can't convert a dead man.

 

[BobbyD]

bobby. whats your view of your role?

don't tell us your tactical choices for the night time obviously but how do you view being the known innocent.

Sorry, busy at work. I didnt envisage having so much work to do when i signed up so will be on intermittently during the day.

Hmmm i never have a view day 1 (also i don't make notes open planned office). I will go with the AFC scatter gun approach i think

 

[Brian Storm]

Easy.

Tag anyone in who hasn't appeared by say 7.30 to esnure that they know the plan. If they've not piped up by say 8.45, we can change our tactic to switch our votes to put all of the abstainers up, as they're **** all value to the game anyway in reality.

Not really, as long as they're alive they help out number the bad guys.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Easy.

Tag anyone in who hasn't appeared by say 7.30 to esnure that they know the plan. If they've not piped up by say 8.45, we can change our tactic to switch our votes to put all of the abstainers up, as they're **** all value to the game anyway in reality.

not a bad plan this.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

I vote MITO

its early enough to have a go at this to see what occurs.

 

[Sir Tennisball]

So right now it's prob time to do maths as frankly there's little to speak of.

5 bad guys out of 18 as we know Bobby is innocent. I know I am innocent too same as everyone will say but let's keep it simple.

Random chance of hitting one in lynch is 5/18

On the other hand chance of innocent getting lynched is 13/18

A 3 way with all innocent = 13/18×13/17÷13/16 =44%

So that's basically gambling. A simple throw up 3 strategy in this case is not really close to sure pressuring anyone. A 4 way then is better but who panics day one vim a 4 way?

Does anyone agree/disagree with this?

You're mostly right MITO:

Random chance of hitting scum in one man lynch lynch is 5/18 (28%), innocent is 72%, so definitely a no go.

In a two way tie, chance of having two innocents is 13/18 * 12/17 = 51%, chance of 1 scum is (13/18 * 5/17) + (5/18 * 13/17) = 42% and chance of 2 scum is 5/18 * 4/17 = 7%
The above figures are correct, and to check you can see they add up to 100% (51% + 42% + 7%).

In a 3 way tie it works the same way, not going to show all the calculations though as I'm lazy:
3 innocents: 35%
2 innocents, 1 scum: 48%
1 innocent, 2 scum: 16%
3 scum: 1%
So again it adds to 100%...

In a 4 way tie I think the mafia will back their chances so I don't think it's worth pursuing, but the odds of having 4 innocents is 23%.

 

[Albert's Chip Shop]

ACS

 

[astro]

You're mostly right MITO:

Random chance of hitting scum in one man lynch lynch is 5/18 (28%), innocent is 72%, so definitely a no go.

In a two way tie, chance of having two innocents is 13/18 * 12/17 = 51%, chance of 1 scum is (13/18 * 5/17) + (5/18 * 13/17) = 42% and chance of 2 scum is 5/18 * 4/17 = 7%
The above figures are correct, and to check you can see they add up to 100% (51% + 42% + 7%).

In a 3 way tie it works the same way, not going to show all the calculations though as I'm lazy:
3 innocents: 35%
2 innocents, 1 scum: 48%
1 innocent, 2 scum: 16%
3 scum: 1%
So again it adds to 100%...

In a 4 way tie I think the mafia will back their chances so I don't think it's worth pursuing, but the odds of having 4 innocents is 23%.

This type analysis ignores the fact that the mafia are able to manipulate who ends up in the tie anyway, unless it is chosen by the cop

If there are innocents in the tie the mafia get to hide

If there are mafia in the tie people talk so much BS the first day that they can usually move attention off to innocents without much work

 

[Tobes]

Not really, as long as they're alive they help out number the bad guys.

They also create confusion by not contributing. If they're town then they draw suspicion away from the real villains, ergo they're **** all use either in terms of assisting the analysis of the information and isolating the mafia.

 

[Tobes]

I vote: TOBES

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

You're mostly right MITO:

Random chance of hitting scum in one man lynch lynch is 5/18 (28%), innocent is 72%, so definitely a no go.

In a two way tie, chance of having two innocents is 13/18 * 12/17 = 51%, chance of 1 scum is (13/18 * 5/17) + (5/18 * 13/17) = 42% and chance of 2 scum is 5/18 * 4/17 = 7%
The above figures are correct, and to check you can see they add up to 100% (51% + 42% + 7%).

In a 3 way tie it works the same way, not going to show all the calculations though as I'm lazy:
3 innocents: 35%
2 innocents, 1 scum: 48%
1 innocent, 2 scum: 16%
3 scum: 1%
So again it adds to 100%...

In a 4 way tie I think the mafia will back their chances so I don't think it's worth pursuing, but the odds of having 4 innocents is 23%.

i did it the other way as its easier. rather than find oe guilty per above which is fine i said 3 innocents = 13/18x 13/17 x 13x16 = 44% so to me thats 44% of 3 innocents no?

anyway....... 4 way is agreed, its been resisted every game its occured.

 

[Obi Wan]

If we go with 3, 4 or whatever then we should ask Bobby/swarbs to pick them at random from a hat and tell us who to go for. Will help avoid mafia / zombie manipulation of who is put up. Will also be a real test of their resolve if we happen to pull one into the mix.

 

[Tobes]

i did it the other way as its easier. rather than find oe guilty per above which is fine i said 3 innocents = 13/18x 13/17 x 13x16 = 44% so to me thats 44% of 3 innocents no?

anyway....... 4 way is agreed, its been resisted every game its occured.

In a 3 or 4 way lynch you could have selected zero mafia or roles, therefore you could have a 0% chance of a hit after the selection.

If everyone is up you at least have a 5 in 18 chance

 

[Brian Storm]

They also create confusion by not contributing. If they're town then they draw suspicion away from the real villains, ergo they're **** all use either in terms of assisting the analysis of the information and isolating the mafia.

I agree with that. Just wanted to draw attention to the fact a lot of people see they have a **** role and **** it off, but none posting living town members are valuable even though they're a ****ing liability. You never know, miracles could happen and all 19 could contribute.

Is anyone keeping a log of who's contributing? Sounds like a job for Mito.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

I'm working....

but mostly on mafia.

 

[Tobes]

I'm working....

but mostly on mafia.

Month and half year end today, I'm up to my neck in stuff, I really shouldn't be posting ffs

 

[ValleyGraduate12]

Just to confirm, at what time do we switch to those inactive?

 

[Red Hadron Collider]

Easy.

Tag anyone in who hasn't appeared by say 7.30 to esnure that they know the plan. If they've not piped up by say 8.45, we can change our tactic to switch our votes to put all of the abstainers up, as they're **** all value to the game anyway in reality.

You'll be surprised to learn I still don't know what the ****'s going on. I'm very innocent, however

 

[astro]

In a 3 or 4 way lynch you could have selected zero mafia or roles, therefore you could have a 0% chance of a hit after the selection.

If everyone is up you at least have a 5 in 18 chance

Yep. The 3/4-way is based on the (wrong) idea that the cop (choosing the people) is 'luckier' than a random coinflip

 

[afcftw]

I deleted a tag, think I know who put it up and you have noticed the same thing as me, you are one of the people I have down as innocent.