Off Topic Mafia VIII - Mafia vs Zombies

Putting up everyone carries the risk of somebody or a few people not voting at all which will cock it up. Then we'll target the non voters for not taking part and go on to lynch an innocent day 2 all because they found out they were straight town and couldn't be arsed. Notice that happens a lot. I've been Werewolf once and all other times town in some capacity and I'll be honest, I've enjoyed the town roles much more. Folk shouldn't **** it off, it's a great role imo.

Yep you're right on that because lynching is the first action. I presume the Zombie master can't convert a dead man.

 

Sorry, busy at work. I didnt envisage having so much work to do when i signed up so will be on intermittently during the day.

Hmmm i never have a view day 1 (also i don't make notes open planned office). I will go with the AFC scatter gun approach i think

 

Not really, as long as they're alive they help out number the bad guys.

 

not a bad plan this.

 

I vote MITO

its early enough to have a go at this to see what occurs.

 

You're mostly right MITO:

Random chance of hitting scum in one man lynch lynch is 5/18 (28%), innocent is 72%, so definitely a no go.

In a two way tie, chance of having two innocents is 13/18 * 12/17 = 51%, chance of 1 scum is (13/18 * 5/17) + (5/18 * 13/17) = 42% and chance of 2 scum is 5/18 * 4/17 = 7%
The above figures are correct, and to check you can see they add up to 100% (51% + 42% + 7%).

In a 3 way tie it works the same way, not going to show all the calculations though as I'm lazy:
3 innocents: 35%
2 innocents, 1 scum: 48%
1 innocent, 2 scum: 16%
3 scum: 1%
So again it adds to 100%...

In a 4 way tie I think the mafia will back their chances so I don't think it's worth pursuing, but the odds of having 4 innocents is 23%.

 

ACS

 

This type analysis ignores the fact that the mafia are able to manipulate who ends up in the tie anyway, unless it is chosen by the cop

If there are innocents in the tie the mafia get to hide

If there are mafia in the tie people talk so much BS the first day that they can usually move attention off to innocents without much work

 

They also create confusion by not contributing. If they're town then they draw suspicion away from the real villains, ergo they're **** all use either in terms of assisting the analysis of the information and isolating the mafia.

 

I vote: TOBES

 

i did it the other way as its easier. rather than find oe guilty per above which is fine i said 3 innocents = 13/18x 13/17 x 13x16 = 44% so to me thats 44% of 3 innocents no?

anyway....... 4 way is agreed, its been resisted every game its occured.

 

If we go with 3, 4 or whatever then we should ask Bobby/swarbs to pick them at random from a hat and tell us who to go for. Will help avoid mafia / zombie manipulation of who is put up. Will also be a real test of their resolve if we happen to pull one into the mix.

 

In a 3 or 4 way lynch you could have selected zero mafia or roles, therefore you could have a 0% chance of a hit after the selection.

If everyone is up you at least have a 5 in 18 chance

 

I agree with that. Just wanted to draw attention to the fact a lot of people see they have a **** role and **** it off, but none posting living town members are valuable even though they're a ****ing liability. You never know, miracles could happen and all 19 could contribute.

Is anyone keeping a log of who's contributing? Sounds like a job for Mito.

 

I'm working....

but mostly on mafia.

 

Month and half year end today, I'm up to my neck in stuff, I really shouldn't be posting ffs

 

Just to confirm, at what time do we switch to those inactive?

 

You'll be surprised to learn I still don't know what the ****'s going on. I'm very innocent, however

 

Yep. The 3/4-way is based on the (wrong) idea that the cop (choosing the people) is 'luckier' than a random coinflip

 

I deleted a tag, think I know who put it up and you have noticed the same thing as me, you are one of the people I have down as innocent.