The Epsom Derby

I hardly ever bet on the AP market but this was only for a relatively small amount, also Ladbrokes were a way bigger price at that time and if the bet was a big one I knew I could lay it off at a smaller price to make it a free bet, not now though as it has drifted out on Betfair.

 

It is hard to see the Derby winner actually being from the home team. Looking at the betting, Telescope is the only one in the first ten in the market – assuming that he runs – that can win.

I do not think that Ballydoyle will run all the ones that are listed in the betting so it could be a small field. Magician will head for Chantilly the following day as he looks like a ten furlong horse and is the one that I think is probably the best horse that has won any of the trials.

Having not seen the German horse but in the pretty certain knowledge that it has beaten trees, it would need to be a moderate race for it to be good enough to win. If Andre Fabre’s horse does make it to the post he would have to be respected.

Just like laying Declaration Of War in the Lockinge was a license to print money (all-weather Group 3 winner in a Group 1 race), laying Dawn Approach to lose his unbeaten record looks like a money tree.

 

I think laying Dawn Approach on the day looks the best bet up to now, Theres noway I can be having him as a Derby winner. Very impressive Guineas winner but if he gets 1m4f around Epsom I'll be gobsmacked. He handled the dip at Newmarket relatively well but Epsom is an whole different ball game and he looks a big bull of a horse Im not sure a horse of his stature will appreciate the undulations of Epsom. I think Aidan O'Brien as got the best chances in the Derby - Battle of Marengo looked very workmanlike in the Derrinstown, But he got the job done and a trial should always been seen as a trial it isn't D-Day. Magician showed the best turn of foot out of all his Trial winners but theres doubts over the trip, I think you could have worse bets than Ruler of the World at 8/1 (Currently) hes certain to get the trip and when the penny dropped at Chester he put the race to bed fairly quickly - He'd be my pick of Aidans. Telescope was my pick initially but the fact we haven't seen him as a 3 year old yet is a negative and I don't like setbacks before big races although hes the home teams best chance of glory...

 

I think it'd take a brave man to lay Dawn Approach, as he's clearly the best horse in the race. I don't know much (well, nothing really) about breeding, but people who do seem almost unanimous in the view that he isn't bred to stay. However, the man that bred him is running him, so there has to be a good chance he can defy his genetic limitations. The better the horse, the better they stay as the good ones travel with minimum effort. Whilst it's not hard to envisage Dawn Approach fading tamely at the two pole, it's hard to see who from this field is going to power past him at that point.

 

I love DAWN APPROACH and he has done me proud but I just dont see him getting twelve furlongs. You can be as classy as you like but if the trip is too far you run out of juice. I would love to see him win but I will be taking him on with OCOVANGO.

 

Having a look at the pedigree, I noticed that Dawn Approach has an unraced 2yo half sister by the name of Prudent Approach (with Jim Bolger). Probably not news to most of you.

 

Telescope put in a lovely piece of work this morning over 10f, pulling 30L clear of some old handicapper. Connections incl Sir Michael were seen with big fat grins plastered all over their faces.

 

I think the track will beat him to be honest, Am I right in saying that hes never ran a bend? Yet hes tasked with Epsom and Tattenham corner aswell as the 12 furlongs for the first time. He's built like a sprinter and is a bull of a horse, I just dont see the track suiting personally. And thats before you consider his pedigree. Jim Bolger was adamant this horse wouldn't get 12f, He even thought 10f would be stretching him and its not hard to see why but ever since Godolphin have got on board hes suddenly a Derby horse and all that tells me is Sheikh Mohammed as clearly influenced the decision to go to Epsom and not because Jim Bolger sees him as a Derby horse. Evens is too short for Me no matter how good he's looked, He might be the best horse in the race but the best horse doesnt always win the Derby

 

I think the track will beat him to be honest, Am I right in saying that hes never ran a bend? Yet hes tasked with Epsom and Tattenham corner aswell as the 12 furlongs for the first time. He's built like a sprinter and is a bull of a horse, I just dont see the track suiting personally. And thats before you consider his pedigree. Jim Bolger was adamant this horse wouldn't get 12f, He even thought 10f would be stretching him and its not hard to see why but ever since Godolphin have got on board hes suddenly a Derby horse and all that tells me is Sheikh Mohammed as clearly influenced the decision to go to Epsom and not because Jim Bolger sees him as a Derby horse. Evens is too short for Me no matter how good he's looked, He might be the best horse in the race but the best horse doesnt always win the Derby

He'd have to be a freak to win a Coventry at 2 and then win the Derby at 3. Mill Reef was the last of that kind, Which paints its own picture although its probably because not alot of attempted both races for obvious reasons!

 

I actually think Telescope could be the real deal but would I want to risk him not turning up? Workforce had only had a Dante as his prep and I can't imagine that taught him loads.

Telescope is the one I look at and think 'yep, he looks like a middle distance horse'. Obviously it is a risk having not seen him as a 3 Y O.

Ruler Of The World is promising but for me just lacks a touch of class to win this. Same with Battle Of Marengo. Ocovango is interesting but he will have to be good to do a Pour Moi. Dawn Approach is all class and he has filled out beautifully. However, there has to be a slight doubt over stamina. The thing in his favour is that he races well within himself and responds and quickens only when asked, so he gives himself every chance. He's a big 'un though so Epsom may not be for him.

 

Ive got doubts and if im backing something at even money in Group 1 I shouldnt have doubts. Ive never opposed him and Id like to see him do it for New Approach but I cant back him at the price. 9/4 and I would start to consider it.

The only other potential star in the race is Telescope, Battle Of Marengo is what he is, a really nice horse in his own right but he wouldnt win a decent Derby. Ocovango is a nice horse but hes beat nothing and ive a line through him very easily unless its soft ground. Ruler Of The World has place chance but I dont think he is good enough to win. Libertarian for me, won the best trial and will improve for the step up in trip, definite place chance. The rest are not worth mentioning.

Starting to like Telescope now after being against him since last year, he is the only one who has still to show his hand really and although I had him down as slow, and I was opposing him in the Dante, I think I might have to take a chance on him by default.

 

The Derby looks like a “no bet” race to me as far as trying to find the winner, but I definitely would not have a penny on Dawn Approach. He will not stay so he will not win unless the rest of them are very moderate. He is running because Sheikh Mohammed is the principle owner (ahead of the trainer). Wait for the Eclipse to get your money back if you have blown it on the ante post Derby betting.

Telescope catching pigeons on the gallops means nothing to me but I wish his followers well.

 

Does anyone on this forum look outside the first 4 of the betting!?

Someone go have a look a Chopin on Youtube, the German horse they'll supplement soon, and tell me they're not impressed, infact, tell me he's not as good as anything we've seen in any of our trials.

I agree Dawn Approach won't stay, Mars looks more like a Chantilly horse to me, Telescope can't win the Derby without a run to my mind, but the best of the O'Brien runners is Battle Of Marengo. Forget about the others, they'll be pacemaking or nowhere.

 

I disagree entirely with what you are saying here and it smacks of someone who doesn't understand or alternatively doesn't utilise the nuances of the world of punting as we know it in 2013. In a world where there were no exchanges you have a point. Ante post punting allowed you to get a bigger price about a horse but there was no facility to lay that liability off for an effective free bet and/or guaranteed profit. Nowadays ante post punting allows you to get a bigger price about a horse and the ability to lay off that liability via the exchanges. RV could easily have used Betfair to make a nice little profit on the 2000 before the race was even run and still have a big price about CC should he have won.

If you aren't doing things like that nowadays then you are missing out on loads of profit that will almost certainly cover some of the losses should you go through a losing spell as is the norm in horse racing betting.

Also, you use RV's 25/1 about CC as an example because, presumably, it supports your idea about ante post not being in the punters favour because it lost the 2000 even though it completely ignores the fact that you can make profit even from that same loser. However, there's numerous examples on here about ante post punting giving members fantastic returns. I had Sprinter for the Arkle at 12/1. Simonsig at 4/1. Dawn Approach for Boris at 3/1 (others had 7/2 and bigger i think). It allowed me to put a big stake on Dawn Approach at 7/4 and I topped up again on the day at 2/1. There's no way I would have had as much on DA if I was just backing on the day. I currently hold a big double on Quevega winning last years Mares race at Cheltenham at 4/5 and Sprinter to win next years Champion Chase at 4/6. There's no way i'll get 4/6 throughout the season. I think Stick had a good bet on The New One at around the 12/1 mark. I had At fishers Cross at 6/1 for the Albert Bartlett. Sorry if i have left anyone out this is just off the top of my head.

So basically, to sum up, I understand why you say that you think ante post punting is too dangerous but I think that is a very outmoded way of approaching betting on horses.

 

Has anyone got access to any stats around Fabre's record in the Derby when bringing one over?

 

I'll take a chance with Telescope as well. No idea how good it is but I'm hoping Stoute has. His recent record with his main Derby contenders is 5 placed from 6 runners & half (3) won.
No prep has to be a concern but Shaamit & Lammtaara both won first time out in '95 & '96, so not impossible.

 

Thanks Oddy.

 

It's hardly a compelling reason to back Ocovango is it