I've a feeling we have not yet seen the winner of this year's Epsom Derby on a racecourse this season. I'm hoping for a lightly raced (or unraced) well bred colt to appear.
Blushing Groom, El Gran Senor, Pennekamp, Dubai Millenium just a few of many who have failed in the Derby after coming there with huge reputations. I think Dawn Approach is a brilliant horse, Very powerful when he hits his 5th gear and never looks like getting passed but I fear he'll be joining these 4 when it comes to Derby day. At 7/4 its an awful price for a horse who's pedigree doesn't scream Derby winner and a horse who as never stepped beyond a mile added to the fact that he's also a Coventry winner and the last winner of that race to win the Derby was Mill Reef. He might do a New Approach but I personally think his unbeaten record will be smashed to pieces if he does indeed line up at Epsom...
His father was a Derby winner, whilst his Grandad was also a Derby winner. I know his dam side isn't exactly filled with stamin, but Ribot and Sea Bird are on his dam side. Probably the 2 best Arc winners of all time. I think he'll stay, and make mince meat of the rest. We will see Derby day though, one things for sure though il be on Dawn Approach heavily
Dawn Approach is definitely the one nailed on class horse of the race. His strength at the end of 1m looks promising BUT he has a lot of cruising speed and another 4f to try and keep up that high standard so there must be doubts. I can see why he could be a lay bet, but at the same time understand he could win by a comfortable margin. Personally, looking at him, he just does not look like a Derby horse for me BUT he has grown massively (looked like a ****ing tank at Newmarket!) and also I see nothing else that looks outstanding either. The only horses I know will stay for sure is Battle Of Marengo and Rule The World. The one unexposed type is Telescope, but it is a big ask and much will depend on how he has developed. I have a feeling that the French raider (Ocavango?) might not be far off the premises here judged on the doubts around some of ours. Looks an open enough Derby and I will now play any other bets on the day after the disappointments of Toronado!
I just hate backing short priced favourites for the Derby, It was much easier last year as it was probably the worst Derby I've ever seen but there are many in this race espcially from Ballydoyle who could step up a gear at Epsom and upset the favourite. 7/4 just isn't value for a horse who I have massive doubts about his stamina - He's shown his class already but the best horse doesn't always win the Derby as you know... Im going to wait until after the Dante to make My mind up completely, Telescope as apparently been working very well and he needs to win well at York to justify his place in the Derby market after only seeing him twice last year, I reckon Mars could be value at 7/1 for the Dante. He ran a fair enough race in the Guineas for a horse only having his second run on a track and I reckon the Derby as been the target all along. Intresting race but I couldn't be having DA at 7/4 although he could probably make that look value on the day - You just never know with this race!
They say the Derby is won at the paddocks. On breeding there are question marks over all the leading contenders, even Mars is slightly dodgy. Of the ones in the upper srata of the betting market only Steeler, Ocovango, Greatwood, Telescope & Indian Chief look certain to stay. I have liked the look of Steeler but he might just lack the class. If Telescope wins the Dante then he will be the one to beat. However 10 furlong horses have been successful in the Derby, Sir Ivor & Mahmoud for instance.
I would not touch most of the front runners in the Derby betting. It may suggest that the winner will be Irish but Dawn Approach will not stay and it is easy to scratch most of Aidan O’Brien’s candidates. Of those that I have seen, Magician is the best horse but I doubt if he will stay the twelve furlongs. Rule Of The World lacks the experience and Battle Of Marengo has beaten trees. This all comes down to the Dante Stakes. The betting suggests that the Derby winner comes from across the Irish Sea unless Sir Michael Stoute’s colt offers a local option. I am inclined to wait until the day of the race because I do not think that the favourite (Dawn Approach) will stay.
When the race appears to revolve around one horse and whether he stays/handles the track/ground etc, the percentage call is nearly always to back that one horse. As per Motivator, Authorized, Sea The Stars, Camelot.
Archers is probably right. O'Brien and team Coolmore are going to do a Sea The Stars job again I think. They'll probably fill three of the first 5 home. This will be a truly run Derby and they'll almost certainly make it a true test of stamina. If they can run the speed out of Dawn Approach they will. I'm still hoping for Telescope to win the Dante. I'm on ante post at 10's and 8's as i've mentioned before. It's not for a lot of money but there is a £29 Dawn Approach 2000/Telescope Derby double as well that would pay fairly well. Still hoping to lay off the Telescope stake on Friday post Dante so i save the £50 stake I've stuck on.
Having rewatched the Ballydoyle team, I would be confident that Indian Chief is their best horse. He looked a good mover and a good stayer in his win LTO, going from last to first and winning hands and heels. He looked to have some real gears. He would be the e/w angle and I think the logical one for win purposes would be Telescope because Dawn Approach could end up running on empty and Telescope will be short if he beats Indian Chief on Thursday. 23s and 6s on the exchange will do for me as both could end up conceivably shorter if finishing 1-2 in the Dante, possibly hitting 8/1 and 3/1 as a result.
Indian Chief better than the horse they've sent to the two Derby trials they invariably send their best Derby prospect? I'd be gobsmacked.
Indian Chief is the one for me, Montjeu has sired 4 Derby winners and this horse looks to have much more speed and natural ability than Battle Of Marengo or Ruler Of The World. I had Telescope down as a slow horse, Leger type, and I will stick with my original opinion despite reports of him looking "special", I think hes a decent animal and he should provide a serious test to the Obrien horse in the Dante. Im not totally convinced yet that Indian Chief is the real deal, but I like him a lot more than anything else in the Derby field outside of the Champ, who I dont think will stay, and ive had a decent bet on him at 5/1 for the Dante and a couple of quid on for the Derby at 25s. He travels like a really good horse and he has a nice turn of foot, we will find out on Thursday if he really has the Group 1 engine to go with it, if he does he could be a serious horse.
Interesting to read that Andre Fabre is hell bent on sending Ocovango over to Epsom - looks like he could give the jolly most to think about.
Nice horse but hes a Monsun and looks a soft ground horse to my eye, id have a line through him unless there was soft in the description, he is at least half the price he should be on form now too.
This is the British summer we're talking about here Boris When was the last soft ground Derby? I remember Quest For Fame winning with a bit of cut ...................
Ocovango has been tipped up by 'The Weekender's' ante-post lad this morning at 9's. Now generally 8/1 and even 7's in a place. It's also been confirmed that Ocovango will be ridden at Epsom by old boy Pierre-Charles Boudot.
I took the 14/1 on Ruler Of The World straight after his Chester win and seeing the other trials since am more than happy about that, definitely think it will be softish ground on the day.
Oh no not another ante poster.......more than likely not gonna come off!So many factors unknown esp ground!I remember RV feeling chuffed over his 25/1 ante post ticket on Cristophoro colombo for the guineas.....ante post bettin is too risky and all yoi are doing it for is to get a better price...my advice is always wait to the day so you can weigh everything up!
