The Epsom Derby

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Dawn Approach for me is just a proper miler. He is class but he doesn't look like a horse who wants another half mile to me. a mile seems perfect for him.


I have finally had chance to watch the two classics having got home. Something does not look right with Toronado and he finished utterly punch-drunk. He came out of the stalls and was very keen- usually he races in a really lovely rhythm and by the time he eventually settled, Dawn Approach upped the ante and dished out a beating. As you know Toronado was not a horse I wanted for the Guineas- I thought Dawn Approach looked a bit of a champion and he certainly proved it. However, Toronado did not run the race I expected. I think they made far too much use of him and when the tempo quickened up he simply did not quicken once, never mind 'quicken again' like he did in his trial race. Yes he is against better opposition by miles but he ran nothing like the race he can. It looks cystal clear to me that he has run below form and the fact that a pacemaker finished 2nd tells you the ground played a funny part in this race and nothing really got into it from behind.

I can't be having it. He doesn't look right. I know the excuses start to roll but they think a serious amount of Toronado and they saw him as a Derby horse long before the Guineas- it was only that he had showed more speed and sharpness that made them go for this seriously.

For me at 16/1 again now he is an insane price for The Derby. He doesn't lack stamina and he is wonderfully balanced, which will help him at Epsom and hinder Dawn Approach, who in my opinion should be looking at 1m races and possibly a tilt at the Champion Stakes. My concern is that will they get him fit in time for Epsom?


EDIT: Can I please make it abundantly clear before any misunderstandings- I am not making excuses for him being beaten- Dawn Approach is a serious, serious miler. Exceptional. What I am puzzled by is the nature of his race, and that he weakened badly to 4th.
 
[video=youtube;_7bWX-YFLQQ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7bWX-YFLQQ[/video]

[video=youtube;igTXCWzGKWY]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igTXCWzGKWY[/video]


Have a look at the Craven stakes and the way he races, relaxes, and crucially is difficult to pull up past the post.


Then have a look at the Guineas, particularly around 0:50-0:55. He is pulling for his life. He looks distressed. Then watch how he is up and down on the one spot in the finish.


It is like two totally different horses. I'm staggered to be honest.
 
^They're not machines Toppy - probably about 2 seconds between his 2 runs over a mile - in the Craven he could dictate the pace he wanted and come own in his own time, in the Guineas he was out of his comfort zone the last 2F and couldn't go on. Not a massive difference between the 2 races, it just looked so different<ok>
 
It reminds me of when I used to run as a youngster. Allowed to bowl along at my pace, I could outsprint anyone I met over the last 100, 300, 400 yards. But........... when taken out of my comfort zone, with a very fast early pace, my legs went early. I never had any training or post race analysis so never knew why and I was just left to believe that upped in class it was a different proposition. So, unless Toronado had something wrong, or until he proves me wrong, I won't be taking the chance at Epsom. Accelerating off a comfortable pace is one thing, and can look impressive, but to accelerate off a fast pace is something else.
 
Nowt wrong with Toronado. Wasnt the best horse before the race and wasnt after the race.
Was a horse of potential rather than concrete form.and his potential just wasn't as good as expected.
Piss easy to win a race against vastly inferior rivals,and especially when you can dictate the race at your comfortable pace.
 
Toppy there's rumours that he didn't like the slippery surface because there was a torrential downpour just before the race which didn't really sink in but left the top slippy. He won't stay the Derby trip in a horsebox so I'd be hoping to see him at Ascot!!
 
I would not touch Dawn Approach for the Epsom Derby. Looks like a good lay opportunity on the exchanges unless he is allowed to travel to Tattenham Corner in a horsebox.

Toronado did not show me sufficient class that I would be getting involved in the ante post market for The Derby before seeing him proving his mettle in one of the other recognised trial races.

At the moment this year&#8217;s Blue Riband is looking like a 4/1 the field event so I may leave it until the day of the race.
 
That isn't really the point for me. He was never going to be the best miler but I thought he would push them closer. I simply don't buy it. It is one thing being beaten and finding out a horse wasn't up to it, but to see him so blatantly knackered in the last furlong is another. You usually know if a horse has any problems with stamina judging by their early parts of the career and he has been the strongest at the finish in all of them. I was expecting Dawn Approach to see him off, but I did not expect to see a sea of horses come steaming at a punch-drunk Toronado.

Hughesy has bounced him out and he has got properly lit up tracking an electric early pace, and that has not helped him one bit. When you look at the finishers- Mars, Van Der Neer were coming home best, and they are expected to be 10f and 12f horses respectively, so that tells you a little bit about the sort of pace they went.


I know I sound a little crazy and a little like someone in denial, but I think if everything is okay with him physically, he could end up running a screamer in the Derby. The Derby tempo will suit much better and stamina questions will be answered in the straight.
 
Toronado will end up as one of those horses that isnt speedy enough for a mile and wont stay 12f.
Lots of good opportunities over 10f for him though. Too early to write him off i guess,but he doesnt look the world beater the Hannons' thought they had(Cue champion middle distance champion now ive said all that).
 
Going on my own visual opinion i reckon he'll stay. In all of Dawn Approaches race, including Saturday he looked like he was doing his best work at the finish, he was not slowing down. I think he'll get the 1m4 as he settles so well. New Approach his sire was pulling for his head for the first 4 furlongs when he won the Derby, and you have to have a decent amount of stamina to pull that off. I watch a fair lot of racing and it is very rare that a horse pulls hard at the start and is still able to win.

If Dawn Approach goes for the Derby I will be investing very heavily on him again, as he is clearly a far classier horse than anything that is likely to be in the race. Class counts for alot regardless of the distance, and in my experience you should never take on a standout horse of his generation, like Dawn Approach is:biggrin:
 
New Approach was out of Park Express and was crying out for a trip since the Dewhurst, he was a genuine middle distance horse, his class took him close in the Guineas but he was done by a Group 1 miler and beaten very easily at the Curragh.

If Dawn Approach runs in the Derby and bumps into a Group 1 middle distance horse he will be beaten, its as simple as that.
 
Toronado coughed all the way home according to Hannon and Hughes. So did a lot of people who backed him.

Master, yes Mill Reef was the last Coventry Derby winner, but Generous was a good Coventry second 21 years later.
 
I really like Windhoek for this. The form of his sales race looks strong. Greatwood is held in very, very high regard by his experienced handler. With a run I feel he would have won that race and he'll be a likely Derby candidate. But, given that Windhoek badly needed the run that day according to his experienced handler and still got his head in front, preference falls with him. The market for me is all wrong with two likely non-stayers and horses that are very unexposed at the head of the betting. These two look certain to run and are both available at tasty prices.
 
The Master of Glesga said:
New Approach was out of Park Express and was crying out for a trip since the Dewhurst, he was a genuine middle distance horse, his class took him close in the Guineas but he was done by a Group 1 miler and beaten very easily at the Curragh.

If Dawn Approach runs in the Derby and bumps into a Group 1 middle distance horse he will be beaten, its as simple as that.
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So maybe he gets beaten, so what? that is what racing should be about, not just trying to keep a horse unbeaten by keeping it at the same distance all the time, this will be a fascinating Derby for this reason alone.
 
uttercunt2 said:
So maybe he gets beaten, so what? that is what racing should be about, not just trying to keep a horse unbeaten by keeping it at the same distance all the time, this will be a fascinating Derby for this reason alone.
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Your right, I was screaming for Frankel to run in the Derby so dunno why I am against running Dawn Approach in it, on style and looks you would say he is more likely to get it that than Frankel was as a 3yo.

It will be interesting to see, I just think hes a 1m/1m2 horse.

He might not bump into a top 1m4 horse just looking at the betting, nothing there to me looks anything special so he could get away with it, I just wouldnt like to see the horse go clear 2 out, empty and get beaten by an inferior animal, you can ruin a horse.

George... Windhoek <rofl> <yikes>

cmon now
 
Vanquished Toronado 'unlikely' for Derby

By Peter Scargill 11:39AM 6 MAY 2013

TORONADO is "unlikely" to realise the Hannons' dream of winning the Investec Derby next month according to assistant trainer Richard jnr with Royal Ascot being earmarked as the destination for his next run after disappointing in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas on Saturday.




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There was also doubt emerging about the participation of one-time Derby favourite Kingsbarns in the race after he was removed from the betting for the race by a number of bookmakers.

Confirmed for Epsom though is Dawn Approach. Trainer Jim Bolger said: "Dawn Approach has come out of the 2,000 Guineas in excellent shape and I couldn't be more pleased with him.

"I am now looking forward to running him in the Investec Derby at Epsom."

Toronado was strongly supported to take the opening Classic of the season at Newmarket on the back of a storming comeback run in the Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes and bullish home reports for the Hannons and jockey Richard Hughes.

However, in the race itself Toronado failed to pick up after travelling smoothly into contention and finished "legless tired" in fourth according to Hannon jnr.

Toronado had long been considered a Derby horse by his connections but was shunted out to as big as 16-1 for the race after Newmarket and has now had his very participation in the race doubted.

Richard Hannon Jnr
Richard Hannon jnr: believes Toronado is capable of much better
PICTURE: Getty Images
"There was clearly something amiss," Hannon jnr said on Monday. "Plans are on hold for him now. The Derby is unlikely and we'll probably have to wait for Royal Ascot. Whether that's the Jersey or St James's Palace Stakes have to see.

"He's capable of better than that and I know that on his work at home. The way he finished the Craven he should definitely have stayed the [Guineas] trip better than that and we'll have to find out why.

"His work here has been absolutely top class. We thought he was going to run a big race and in the last 100 yards he was legless tired and add another 50 yards on at the end of the race he'd have been nearly last."

Hannon jnr was able to issue a positive bulletin on the stable's other 2,000 Guineas runner Van Der Neer, who excelled himself when finishing third.

"We were delighted with Van Der Neer," Hannon jnr told At The Races. "He goes to Ireland [for the Irish 2,000 Guineas] and I think he'll want a mile and a quarter to be at his best."

Van Der Neer finished second to Kingsbarns in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last autumn, the last time Kingsbarns raced.

The Aidan O'Brien-trained runner was forced to miss the Guineas with an injury and he was taken out of the betting for the Derby by several bookmakers and was also available at 40 on Betfair for the race on Monday.



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Oh dear. Was honestly a really exciting antepost bet for me.
 
Ron said:
It reminds me of when I used to run as a youngster. Allowed to bowl along at my pace, I could outsprint anyone I met over the last 100, 300, 400 yards. But........... when taken out of my comfort zone, with a very fast early pace, my legs went early. I never had any training or post race analysis so never knew why and I was just left to believe that upped in class it was a different proposition. So, unless Toronado had something wrong, or until he proves me wrong, I won't be taking the chance at Epsom. Accelerating off a comfortable pace is one thing, and can look impressive, but to accelerate off a fast pace is something else.
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This sums it up for me. Toronado has been criminally overhyped. Dawn Approach probably under hyped.

Having said that I don't know what he's beaten and I can't make up my mind whether he'd do similar in the Derby.
 
Bustino75 said:
Toronado coughed all the way home according to Hannon and Hughes. So did a lot of people who backed him.

Master, yes Mill Reef was the last Coventry Derby winner, but Generous was a good Coventry second 21 years later.
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Does a Richard Hannon hot pot ever get beat without excuses? It's like the boy who cried wolf with those clowns. Richard Hannon is the biggest twat in racing, as is his dumb ass son. I wish they'd just take a defeat on the chin for a change, rather than making up phantom injury's:biggrin:
 
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