3.50 York
Dutch Masterpiece 11/2
This looks a wide open contest on paper but I think Gary Moore's Dutch Masterpiece looks a horse who will be stepping into Pattern class very soon and I think he has enough ability to defy top weight in this contest with the return to 5f and soft underfoot conditions to suit. A winner of an average Maiden on Southwell's fibresand last July, Dutch Masterpiece disappointed on his 2nd start at Goodwood on handicap debut when sent off a warm order favourite in a competitive 6f contest but he wasn't suited by going down hill and was said by connections to not have enjoyed the quick going and was subsequently gelded on the back of that below par effort. However, he took his operation extremely well when scoring off that same mark of 80 in very impressive fashion as he relished the testing conditions dropped back to the minimum trip as he made all under George Baker to score very comfortably by over 3L at Windsor last October. He was turned out quickly again under a 6lb penalty in a much better race at Haydock 11 days later under Ryan Moore where he again made all under top weight in testing conditions to score by 1.5L (front two 2.5L clear of the remainder) and he definitely looked to have more in the tank as his ears were pricked as he again scored in comfortable fashion. That looks some very solid form with the 3rd home Effie B winning her next start off the same mark before finishing runner up in a Listed contest and the 4th home Tumblewind has run really well on his next 3 outings (all this season) which saw him win off a 4lb higher mark on his latest start. Furthermore, the comprehensively beaten 5th Secret Looks has been very narrowly beaten on his next two outings and reopposes on only 2lb better terms and I would be very surprised to see the form reversed.
The handicapper reacted very fairly in my opinion to raise him 4lb to his current mark of 90 given the strength of that form and I thought he made a very pleasing return to action last month at Newmarket last month in a more competitive race. Held up in midfield on good ground (which was said perhaps not to have suited him at Goodwood), Ryan Moore had Dutch Masterpiece settled on the wide outside of the group in the centre of the course and I noticed throughout the race he never reached for the whip in what very much looked like a run to blow away the cobwebs. Nevertheless, he made some decent headway into 4th in the final couple of furlongs before fading late on to finish beaten a little over 4L and I am very happy with that run which should have put him absolutely spot on for this. This represents a step down in grade as he has to carry top weight in this Class 3 handicap but he clearly carries weight well as shown when winning on his final start as a 2 year old and I think there is a strong chance and it will be interesting to see if he attempts to make all in this like he did for his last two wins. He seems to be a very pacey individual with a high cruising speed so it wouldn't surprise me if he sits just behind the pace and gets a nice tow into the race. Once again Ryan Moore takes the ride for his Dad who is in form at the moment and with ground conditions sure to suit and the step back to 5f a positive I think its going to take a very decent horse to beat Dutch Masterpiece today and I think he'll win this before going on to be a very live contender in Pattern races throughout the rest of the season.
4.05 Newmarket
Nabucco 9/2
If fully wound up on his seasonal reappearance and putting a line through his very disappointing handicap debut on his final start as a 3 year old, I think Nabucco has some very strong form in the book that makes his mark of 88 look very appealing and I think John Gosden's 4 year old could take quite a bit of beating in this. Unraced as a 2 year old, Nabucco built upon a highly promising debut in a very hot contest at Sandown last June when going down by half a length as he just could reel in the winner in soft ground. Nevertheless, that worked out to be an extremely good Maiden with the winner scoring impressively on his handicap debut off a mark of 85 on his next start before shaping if something was amiss stepped into a Listed contest. The 3rd Livery couldn't have won his only subsequent start any easier in a Maiden whilst Sir Henry Cecil's debutant Dr Yes has progressed to be a horse now rated 102. Nabucco lost little in defeat that day but quickly made amends when a ready scorer of a Maiden at Windsor by 2L in a race that has worked out really well. The debutant runner up Guarantee won his next 3 starts and is now rated 105, the 3rd Kunegunda was an impressive scorer off a mark of 78 subsequently and the 4th Cactus Valley has also scored off that mark before being very competitive in races off marks in the 80s. Judged on the form of his Maiden 2nd and his win, a mark of 88 looks potentially very lenient if putting a line through that handicap debut where he just didn't seem to fire and if making the expected progression I think he could take a lot of beating for the in form John Gosden team with Nicky Mackay taking the ride.
4.25 York
Take Two 11/1
This 4 year old has been an absolute revelation since joining Alex Hales in March of this year scoring on both his starts for his new trainer and despite an 8lb weight hike and stepped into a better race I think there is more improvement in him and I think he looks poised to run another big race. Formerly with John O'Shea, Take Two won twice in 12 starts on the flat as a 3 year old before his form tailed off towards the end of last season and he was moved by his owners to the Hales yard earlier this year. The change of scenery clearly did him the world of good as he won twice for Hales last month and the latest was a very impressive success. Ridden by today's pilot Andrea Atzeni on both occasions, Take Two was particularly impressive winning LTO as he scooted clear with 2f to go and was in no danger as he went on to score by 3L. The 2nd and 3rd home have run to about the same level on their next outings to give a solid look to the form and an 8lb rise to a career high mark of 84 seems fair given the authority of his win. Clearly thriving at the moment, this represents a tougher contest but with the soft ground conditions not looking a problem I think he can continue his upward progression and play a hand in this 10f contest.
lol ok ill have a big punt as this is a big river with some big fishes- anyway enough of that im off to bed too tired to think loi
