2.15 York: SPANISH DUKE 16/1 It is always a risk if you punt on this fella. However, I recall someone saying once that he needed the ground to be on the slower side of good and I fancy that is what he will get at York tomorrow. He has only raced over a mile and a half 3times but I doubt that stamina is his biggest worry. He has now dropped to a mark of 88 and Ellison is usually very smart at getting results out of talented but quirky animals like this and if it is not today, it ought to not be too long until he lands a prize for his new stable. He was a never nearer 4th at this venue on his only visit and had Sir John Hawkwood well beaten in behind. It is a gamble, but that is factored into the price. 2.45 TOP TRIP 11/2 Francois Doumen sending over a raider in a staying race? Where have we heard that before?! This is a talented horse and whilst he has to prove his stamina, I doubt Doumen would waste a trip to York and the ground won't be an issue if it does get any softer. 5th in the French Derby and has the class to land this and see off an ageing Cavalryman.
I'm on Top Trip Toppy, and have Cavalryman for the forecast! I've had burnt fingers with SD before and will be keeping my asbestos gloves on now
Could be a good day for Hughes/Hannon tomorrow @ Newbury; 13.30- Championship- 11/4 15.05- Oriel- Evens 15.40- Ninjango- 6/4 16.50- Semeen- 4/1 (Trained By Cumani) All 4 in all L15
16.50 Newmarket- Nabucco - 5/1 Disappointed when well backed on his handicap bow when last seen in July, but with connections and his pedigree (Out of 1000 Guineas winner Cape Verdi) he is definitely worth another chance; 14.15 York- Easy Terms- 15/2 Really was a cracking mare last year, She took this race last year and is only 2lb higher this time. Seems to start the seasons off well and most likely this will be her main target again. 14.45- York- Calvaryman- 5/2 NAP Simple the best horse in the race- looked very hot indeed when wining the Dubai Gold Cup- has also won a listed event over C&D last year and will take alot of beating!
Just been talking to the yard jockey on the chances of MAYFIELD GIRL tomorrow at York 3:50. Ive been on this horse last 2 runs (40/1 and 8/1 so it owes me nothing) and im very impressed. He said the horse is looking really good at home, only concern is the weight, up 6lbs for last win but he was confident that Itl be in the top 3. Myself Ill be backing him ew at 14s, top 4 paid. Good luck if you play.
Only thing i can think of is that Hannon has the better horses at newmarket, where as york he only has the 2 runners- both have chances at york- where as look at Oriel & Ninjango pretty clear favs
Toppy I put up Spanish Duke LTO where he looked to absolute hate the hood (which has been removed). I'd be pretty surprised if he actually preferred ground with cut in it as he has never raced on it in his career (good to soft once). Definitely has the ability to win this but I was really put off by his attitude the last day.
My first Breeze Up runner to make an appearance is Ellingham in the 14-25 at Newmarket tomorrow. Forecast price 50-1 - got to be worth a small canoe
I dont get it lol ok ill have a big punt as this is a big river with some big fishes- anyway enough of that im off to bed too tired to think loi
6.30 aintree Night in Milan. worth playing ew at the current 13/2. Very consistent horse who I always back, easy winner last time out so I dont see why he cant do it again. Only other horse I like in this field is Danimax who is probably on the limit of his handicap mark judging by his last performance.
I swear Spanish Duke gets tipped up on here everytime he runs, one of those horses that everyone is going to follow off a cliff. It'd be nice to see him win, but when you consider he was 10th of 10 last time, 6th of 12 the time before that, and wait for it.....30th of 33 before that. Oh yes and he was 6th of 6 before that LOL LOL LOL!!! He'll no doubt hack up tommorow now
3.50 York Dutch Masterpiece 11/2 This looks a wide open contest on paper but I think Gary Moore's Dutch Masterpiece looks a horse who will be stepping into Pattern class very soon and I think he has enough ability to defy top weight in this contest with the return to 5f and soft underfoot conditions to suit. A winner of an average Maiden on Southwell's fibresand last July, Dutch Masterpiece disappointed on his 2nd start at Goodwood on handicap debut when sent off a warm order favourite in a competitive 6f contest but he wasn't suited by going down hill and was said by connections to not have enjoyed the quick going and was subsequently gelded on the back of that below par effort. However, he took his operation extremely well when scoring off that same mark of 80 in very impressive fashion as he relished the testing conditions dropped back to the minimum trip as he made all under George Baker to score very comfortably by over 3L at Windsor last October. He was turned out quickly again under a 6lb penalty in a much better race at Haydock 11 days later under Ryan Moore where he again made all under top weight in testing conditions to score by 1.5L (front two 2.5L clear of the remainder) and he definitely looked to have more in the tank as his ears were pricked as he again scored in comfortable fashion. That looks some very solid form with the 3rd home Effie B winning her next start off the same mark before finishing runner up in a Listed contest and the 4th home Tumblewind has run really well on his next 3 outings (all this season) which saw him win off a 4lb higher mark on his latest start. Furthermore, the comprehensively beaten 5th Secret Looks has been very narrowly beaten on his next two outings and reopposes on only 2lb better terms and I would be very surprised to see the form reversed. The handicapper reacted very fairly in my opinion to raise him 4lb to his current mark of 90 given the strength of that form and I thought he made a very pleasing return to action last month at Newmarket last month in a more competitive race. Held up in midfield on good ground (which was said perhaps not to have suited him at Goodwood), Ryan Moore had Dutch Masterpiece settled on the wide outside of the group in the centre of the course and I noticed throughout the race he never reached for the whip in what very much looked like a run to blow away the cobwebs. Nevertheless, he made some decent headway into 4th in the final couple of furlongs before fading late on to finish beaten a little over 4L and I am very happy with that run which should have put him absolutely spot on for this. This represents a step down in grade as he has to carry top weight in this Class 3 handicap but he clearly carries weight well as shown when winning on his final start as a 2 year old and I think there is a strong chance and it will be interesting to see if he attempts to make all in this like he did for his last two wins. He seems to be a very pacey individual with a high cruising speed so it wouldn't surprise me if he sits just behind the pace and gets a nice tow into the race. Once again Ryan Moore takes the ride for his Dad who is in form at the moment and with ground conditions sure to suit and the step back to 5f a positive I think its going to take a very decent horse to beat Dutch Masterpiece today and I think he'll win this before going on to be a very live contender in Pattern races throughout the rest of the season. 4.05 Newmarket Nabucco 9/2 If fully wound up on his seasonal reappearance and putting a line through his very disappointing handicap debut on his final start as a 3 year old, I think Nabucco has some very strong form in the book that makes his mark of 88 look very appealing and I think John Gosden's 4 year old could take quite a bit of beating in this. Unraced as a 2 year old, Nabucco built upon a highly promising debut in a very hot contest at Sandown last June when going down by half a length as he just could reel in the winner in soft ground. Nevertheless, that worked out to be an extremely good Maiden with the winner scoring impressively on his handicap debut off a mark of 85 on his next start before shaping if something was amiss stepped into a Listed contest. The 3rd Livery couldn't have won his only subsequent start any easier in a Maiden whilst Sir Henry Cecil's debutant Dr Yes has progressed to be a horse now rated 102. Nabucco lost little in defeat that day but quickly made amends when a ready scorer of a Maiden at Windsor by 2L in a race that has worked out really well. The debutant runner up Guarantee won his next 3 starts and is now rated 105, the 3rd Kunegunda was an impressive scorer off a mark of 78 subsequently and the 4th Cactus Valley has also scored off that mark before being very competitive in races off marks in the 80s. Judged on the form of his Maiden 2nd and his win, a mark of 88 looks potentially very lenient if putting a line through that handicap debut where he just didn't seem to fire and if making the expected progression I think he could take a lot of beating for the in form John Gosden team with Nicky Mackay taking the ride. 4.25 York Take Two 11/1 This 4 year old has been an absolute revelation since joining Alex Hales in March of this year scoring on both his starts for his new trainer and despite an 8lb weight hike and stepped into a better race I think there is more improvement in him and I think he looks poised to run another big race. Formerly with John O'Shea, Take Two won twice in 12 starts on the flat as a 3 year old before his form tailed off towards the end of last season and he was moved by his owners to the Hales yard earlier this year. The change of scenery clearly did him the world of good as he won twice for Hales last month and the latest was a very impressive success. Ridden by today's pilot Andrea Atzeni on both occasions, Take Two was particularly impressive winning LTO as he scooted clear with 2f to go and was in no danger as he went on to score by 3L. The 2nd and 3rd home have run to about the same level on their next outings to give a solid look to the form and an 8lb rise to a career high mark of 84 seems fair given the authority of his win. Clearly thriving at the moment, this represents a tougher contest but with the soft ground conditions not looking a problem I think he can continue his upward progression and play a hand in this 10f contest.
5.00 York Esteaming 12/1 David Barron's son of Derby winning Sir Percy should relish the step up 12f for the first day and on the back of two eye catching runs for his current trainer on ground he should really relish. Formerly with Mick Channon, Esteaming was a little frustrating as he finished runner up on 3 of his 5 starts for his former trainer but a considerable amount of improvement was felt to be made from him as he was picked up for 36,000 Guineas at Doncaster's November sale last year as he was sent to David Barron. Esteaming made his handicap debut for Barron off a mark of 74 at Beverley over 10f last month where he caught the eye as he blocked at a crucial time before making inroads in the final furlong to be beaten about 6L but it was his latest run at Pontefract at the start of the month that really caught the eye. Dropped 2lb to his current mark of 72 for his seasonal reappearance, Esteaming looked full of running at the finish as he blocked off twice at crucial stages on his last run as he met trouble under today's pilot Philp Makin as he had to settle for a 4L beaten 5th over the 1m2f trip. The reopposing Buckstay was about a length in front of him that day and is shorter in the market today and although that rival is more unexposed I'm quite happy to pluck for Esteaming at the bigger price as I think he's got a great chance of turning that form around. In addition to being unlucky the last twice, both those runs were on good to firm ground and I think the soft ground will be more to his liking today. With David Barron in good form at the moment I think Esteaming will prove very popular in the market and hopefully he can shed is Maiden tag at the 8th time of asking. 6.30 Aintree Bradley 11/2 The handicapper looks to have given Bradley a massive, massive chance dropping him back to the mark of 133 where he was narrowly beaten by subsequent Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude just 3 starts a go and this unexposed and progressive 9 year old could prove too classy for this field as he is significantly dropped in grade to a Class 3 handicap as the talented Conor Shoemark takes a very valuable 7lb off his back. A horse that clearly had problems in his early career that saw him off, he mixed Hunter Chases and Chases under Rules for husband and wife Fergal & Jelly O'Brien last year which saw him win 3 times but he was still clearly on an upward curve towards the end of last season. He was seen running on very strongly off his current mark of 133 in an extended 3m handicap at Cheltenham last Ocotber to finish 4th when left too much to do and better that effort when getting caught very late on by subsequent Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude off the same mark over an extended 3m3f at Cheltenham in the Grade 3 Henriette Knight handicap a month later. Upped 5lb to 138 for that run he ran credibly in another Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham in December when beaten 13L (would have finished a bit closer if he hadn't been hampered) in bottomless ground before he was pulled up in the Betfred Classic Chase in January where it transpired he had lost two shoes in the race for which the handicapper surprisingly dropped him 5lb for that run. He was last seen when sent off an 11/1 shot in the Scottish Grand National last month when brought down at the 2nd and if none the worse for that fall I think he has a great chance in this. Considering he has been contesting Grade 3 Handicaps recently, the huge drop back in Class to this 0-135 handicap looks to have given him a tremendous chance if acting at Aintree. With good ground apparently his preferred surface (although his most recent form is in testing ground), as long as he doesn't find the 25f trip on the sharp side he could take an awful lot of beating under 7lb claimer Conor Shoemark for an in form Fergal O'Brien team off a mark of 133.
