Aberdeen v St Mirren

[Psychosomatic]

From what I read we were lucky to get a draw against Saints.

Worrying times indeed.

I also read that, Toiler. St Mirren apparently had a glorious chance to clinch it towards the end and were only foiled by a last-ditch save by Margarine Hands.

Still, if you take Celtic out of the equation – and it’s pretty helpful to do so – we’re only four points from the top. And Craig Brown is now saying that he wants Aberdeen to go on an unbeaten streak. Magic. If he’d only just said this to the players a wee bit sooner, though, who knows where we might now be? Maybe he simply forgot? But I feel an awful lot better now that we’re about to embark on an unbeaten run. He hasn’t said when he next wants us to be beaten, true, but I’m sort of hoping he’s not wanting it to happen until some time towards the end of 2017.

 

[Mick]

Well, let’s have a look at some extremely fascinating and fun-filled figures:

The average Aberdeen home attendance to date = 10,247
The average prediction made on this board = 10,597

The top six performers in a league table based solely on our average predictions, where the number after each name represents how closely our average predictions fall within range of Aberdeen’s average home attendance, would read as follows:

Pud 100
MalteseMick 144
StereoTypist 231
Johnny Rep 331
Psychosomatic 782
Eric Cartman 1917

This league table (above) makes me resent Eric Cartman’s current position at the top of the (real) league even more. He must hang his head in shame. And I’m at an absolute loss as to how Pud has blundered his way towards such average eminence. He’s been all over the place, ffs.

Number anchoring:

On all but one occasion, I’ve made the first guess. On those (12) occasions that I’ve made first guess, the average difference between my original guess and all guesses taken as a whole = 645.5.

On the one occasion that Johnny Rep made first guess, the average difference between his original guess and all guesses taken as whole = 2203.

To me, this clearly suggests that I’m a leader of men, someone to look up to and emulate, whereas J-Rep is viewed as an unmanly sneak, a morally unreliable character whose opinion on such matters is to be disdained. It’s as clear as day, to be honest, although it saddens me greatly to have to say it.


As mentioned, I’ve made first guess on 12 occasions – just one of the many burdens of leadership.

75% of the time this has been followed by the average guess of all participants being lower than my original guess.

25% of the time this has been followed by the average guess of all participants being higher than my original guess.

On those occasions that the subsequent guesses have been lower than my original guess, they have been lower by an average of 780.66

And on those occasions that the subsequent guesses have been higher than my original guess, they have been higher by an average of 240.


I kid you not.

I'm guessing that people will tend to guess lower than you because they've recognised a bias (or positive outlook) in you towards your own team.

I think a better measurement of anchoring is to look at first guess proximity to actual result.

So an expected result if anchoring was true:

first guest is 12,000 - actual result is 10,000 - average guess in 11,000.
first guess is 10,500 - actual result is 10,000 - average guess is 10,250.

There should be a clear correlation between the first guess being more/less accurate and all subsequent guesses being more/less accurate - the more wrong the first guess the more wrong everyone should be, the more right the first guess is the more right everyone should be - on average.

 

[Null]

Well, let’s have a look at some extremely fascinating and fun-filled figures:

The average Aberdeen home attendance to date = 10,247
The average prediction made on this board = 10,597

The top six performers in a league table based solely on our average predictions, where the number after each name represents how closely our average predictions fall within range of Aberdeen’s average home attendance, would read as follows:

Pud 100
MalteseMick 144
StereoTypist 231
Johnny Rep 331
Psychosomatic 782
Eric Cartman 1917

This league table (above) makes me resent Eric Cartman’s current position at the top of the (real) league even more. He must hang his head in shame. And I’m at an absolute loss as to how Pud has blundered his way towards such average eminence. He’s been all over the place, ffs.

Number anchoring:

On all but one occasion, I’ve made the first guess. On those (12) occasions that I’ve made first guess, the average difference between my original guess and all guesses taken as a whole = 645.5.

On the one occasion that Johnny Rep made first guess, the average difference between his original guess and all guesses taken as whole = 2203.

To me, this clearly suggests that I’m a leader of men, someone to look up to and emulate, whereas J-Rep is viewed as an unmanly sneak, a morally unreliable character whose opinion on such matters is to be disdained. It’s as clear as day, to be honest, although it saddens me greatly to have to say it.


As mentioned, I’ve made first guess on 12 occasions – just one of the many burdens of leadership.

75% of the time this has been followed by the average guess of all participants being lower than my original guess.

25% of the time this has been followed by the average guess of all participants being higher than my original guess.

On those occasions that the subsequent guesses have been lower than my original guess, they have been lower by an average of 780.66

And on those occasions that the subsequent guesses have been higher than my original guess, they have been higher by an average of 240.


I kid you not.

I've been erratic at best!

 

[Rubber Johnny]

Well, let’s have a look at some extremely fascinating and fun-filled figures:

The average Aberdeen home attendance to date = 10,247
The average prediction made on this board = 10,597

The top six performers in a league table based solely on our average predictions, where the number after each name represents how closely our average predictions fall within range of Aberdeen’s average home attendance, would read as follows:

Pud 100
MalteseMick 144
StereoTypist 231
Johnny Rep 331
Psychosomatic 782
Eric Cartman 1917

This league table (above) makes me resent Eric Cartman’s current position at the top of the (real) league even more. He must hang his head in shame. And I’m at an absolute loss as to how Pud has blundered his way towards such average eminence. He’s been all over the place, ffs.

Number anchoring:

On all but one occasion, I’ve made the first guess. On those (12) occasions that I’ve made first guess, the average difference between my original guess and all guesses taken as a whole = 645.5.

On the one occasion that Johnny Rep made first guess, the average difference between his original guess and all guesses taken as whole = 2203.

To me, this clearly suggests that I’m a leader of men, someone to look up to and emulate, whereas J-Rep is viewed as an unmanly sneak, a morally unreliable character whose opinion on such matters is to be disdained. It’s as clear as day, to be honest, although it saddens me greatly to have to say it.


As mentioned, I’ve made first guess on 12 occasions – just one of the many burdens of leadership.

75% of the time this has been followed by the average guess of all participants being lower than my original guess.

25% of the time this has been followed by the average guess of all participants being higher than my original guess.

On those occasions that the subsequent guesses have been lower than my original guess, they have been lower by an average of 780.66

And on those occasions that the subsequent guesses have been higher than my original guess, they have been higher by an average of 240.


I kid you not.

To me it says yer a greetin faced **** & a very bad loser. In future start the thread & put in your prediction just before kick off instead of going to the beach with the dog (wife) or going to some pikey market.

 

[Go G YellowScreen]

Down to fourth. Oh, the ignominy

 

[Psychosomatic]

I'm guessing that people will tend to guess lower than you because they've recognised a bias (or positive outlook) in you towards your own team.

I think a better measurement of anchoring is to look at first guess proximity to actual result.

So an expected result if anchoring was true:

first guest is 12,000 - actual result is 10,000 - average guess in 11,000.
first guess is 10,500 - actual result is 10,000 - average guess is 10,250.

There should be a clear correlation between the first guess being more/less accurate and all subsequent guesses being more/less accurate - the more wrong the first guess the more wrong everyone should be, the more right the first guess is the more right everyone should be - on average.

Aha. That makes more sense, thanks.

Although, in my defence, I was merely trying to use the figures in such a way that they might cast a very favourable light upon me and draw attention to all the terrible hardships I face on this board. People have gone on hunger strike for less.

Some random examples, then, before I go back and work out the whole lot (sometime in a happier future).

First guess: 12,754
Average guess: 11,702
Actual attendance: 11,971

First guess: 10,143
Average guess: 10,187
Actual attendance: 9288

First guess: 10,341
Average guess: 9555
Actual attendance: 8577

First guess: 10,001
Average guess: 8781
Actual attendance: 10,425

First guess: 10,013
Average guess: 9449
Actual attendance: 8282

****e. I’ve just realised that I (unthinkingly) included my first guess in the figures for the overall average guess – which, if we’re attempting to establish the differences between first guess, overall average and actual attendance, I probably shouldn’t have done, no?

Talk slowly.

I've been erratic at best!

Exactly! And yet there you are, sitting proud as a lion atop the table of averages. Makes me seethe with rage and envy.

To me it says yer a greetin faced **** & a very bad loser. In future start the thread & put in your prediction just before kick off instead of going to the beach with the dog (wife) or going to some pikey market.

Wise words, J-Rep, wise words.

Friday night kick-off against Dundee this weekend. Remember the last Friday night game against Dunfermline? A triumph. I can't remember, though, if it resulted in an attendance bump, as well? I think it probably did.

As per your instructions, however, I'm going to hold onto my prediction until the very last minute. It's going to be tense, but it's a necessary step on my road to ultimate victory.

 

[Psychosomatic]

Down to fourth. Oh, the ignominy

Sorry, I didn't see you there, but I feel your pain, SD. You'll be in shock.


Take it up with Pud. He's cost you actual money and quite possibly a place in the history books.