Watching yesterday's racing, both Neptune Collonges and Cappa Bleu ran excellent trials for the Grand National. Neptune Collonges gave his all but Giles Cross always had his measure. Better ground at Aintree will certainly help his chances, and I could see Paul Nicholls letting young Derham keep the mount- thereby giving him a good racing weight of 10st 13lbs. At Ascot, Cappa Bleu certainly did his Aintree chances no harm. After a good run under 11st 3lbs in the Welsh National, this lightly raced 10 year old kept 'staying on' and must come into calculations, although the handicapper hasn't 'thrown him in' with 10st 10lbs in a race which looks to have great quality in depth. Best current ante-post prices: Cappa Bleu 33/1 (Hills) Neptune Collonges 40/1 (Skybet) What do other members think?
Tam - I snapped up the 25s Cappa Bleu last week, I'm stunned Hills have pushed him out on the strength of yesterdays performance as I thought it was a solid run over an inadequate trip, if Hills hold that I'll be pressing. I do think if the ground came up good at Aintree itwill suit Cappa Bleu more than most Cheltenham will throw up a few more possibles and of course with 7 weeks still to go there will be injuries, changes of hearts etc, very keen to see if connections of Hold on Julio are serious about the race, he's so unexposed he has to be respected
I agree with Cappa Bleu and I am shocked by the stance from Billy Hills, I thought they would shorten rather than lengthen him after that run. I will wait until I hear a little bit more from Evan Williams before I add more to my antepost bet.
I'm kind of comforted that Skybet, Chandler and Paddy Power slashed him into 16s and a few others cut him into 20s, Hills really have gone out on a limb, they eitehr know something or want to create a very early price war....
Grizzly, they're still offering him at 33/1. Also, his stablemate State Of Play (40/1 with Hills) may have some sort of a chance, given he's finished fourth twice in the race and down to 10st 3lbs. Personally, I always like backing 'first time runners' in the race- they have a better record, though there are notable exceptions. I don't know what I fancy at this stage, but Neptune and Cappa have both got chances.
I agree Tam, I'be backed SOP 2 or 3 times and genuinely felt that if he was to win it last year was his chance, a year older now as well. Was around 15 lengths behind Ballabriggs last year, 25 l behind Don't Push It, another 18 behind Mon Mone, great record but just keeps finding a few better handicapped, I think his chance has gone....
So I popped into my local Billy Hills to press my Cappa Bleu bet, the machine said 33s yet when the woman rang the bet through they said 25s. No idea when they cut the 33s but still poor form, had I had a smaller bet that didn't require referal then I'm sure I would have got the 33s as shown in the shop
"Personally, I always like backing 'first time runners' in the race- they have a better record, though there are notable exceptions." Funny you should say that Tam - my own philosophy is the exact opposite! I have always gone for horses with prior experience of the GN fences. Sure I may have had an occasional saver on a seemingly well handicapped first timer, but generally, previous GN fences form is the first thing I look for That said - with modifications seemingly made every year, the uniqueness is being steadily diluted, so I fully expect more first timers to be winning
So I wandered into Billy Hills today and noticed they've now cut Cappa Bleu to 16s !!! Masterstroke that pushing him out to 33s after his impressive trial....
Some poor little bloke responsible for the mistake is probably now staring at his P-45! It did seem a most curious move.
I could have understood it if they wanted to kick start an early price war, but for that to succeed they have to hold the price not slash it inside a day and cut it to shortest in the industry 2 days later. Just seemed a curious strategy - and if some poor fella does have a P45 out of it I'd like to know where he plans working next as I'd be keen to open an account there very soon.....
Inexplicable really. The only logical reaction was to either maintain the price or shorten. There was absolutely no reason whatsoever to possibly justify pushing him out in the market.
Excellent performance by Prince du Beauchene this weekend but remains to be seen if he takes to the bigger Aintree fences or even stays the marathon trip.
Not convinced by his jumping and wouldn't be interested at the current odds so far from the race that is for sure. If you got the 25/1 then you've done well but not a bet as things stand. I wouldn't say he jumped badly but he was fiddly in places and didn't scream Aintree to me. Then again, I've been wrong before and it looks like he will have the assistance of Ruby Walsh in all probability which is a massive positive to any horse's chance in the National.
cheers zen I fancy West End Rocker, was going well last time but was badly taken out, won the trial a few months back. I usually pick 4/5 horses. Ballabriggs has got to be a definate at an e/w bet at least, a bit too much weight that Im sure mcain would have liked but its definately a winning mark! Not seen much of the pricewise horse, treacle? whats he like?
I wouldn't have thought so, but he might I suppose. Paddy Power bet 1/3 that he rides Prince De Beauchene which probably tells its own story.
i'm not sure either about prince de beauchene. i saw your question woolcombe although i haven't done my proper workings out because there's still 80 runners until next week i think. but the distances he's raced aren't consistently well over 3 miles like ballabriggs winner last year, or even giles cross. my brain has gone cheltenham way in the meantime but soon as the GN runners are shortlisted i'll do my slightly boring spreadsheet and maybe stick my neck out and post an effort at a shortlist. i *think* i'd not include prince de beauchene at this point but you never know whether he'll move up in the possibles. i'm more bothered about sea bass. is he really going to be in the national? he might have won today but that was over 2 miles and in the national he'd have to run over nearly twice the distance he's ever run. maybe i've missed some stamina knowledge, or maybe he won't be in it.
