This is what's left for Saints: Championship Southampton v Burnley Sat 11 Feb 15:00 Championship West Ham v Southampton Tue 14 Feb 19:45 Championship Southampton v Derby Sat 18 Feb 15:00 Championship Watford v Southampton Sat 25 Feb 15:00 Championship Leeds United v Southampton Sat 3 Mar 17:20 Championship Southampton v Ipswich Tue 6 Mar 19:45 Championship Southampton v Barnsley Sat 10 Mar 15:00 Championship Millwall v Southampton Sat 17 Mar 15:00 Championship Hull v Southampton Tue 20 Mar 19:45 Championship Southampton v Doncaster Sat 24 Mar 15:00 Championship Blackpool v Southampton Sat 31 Mar 17:25 Championship Southampton v Portsmouth Sat 7 Apr 13:00 Championship Crystal Palace v Southampton Mon 9 Apr 15:00 Championship Southampton v Reading Sat 14 Apr 15:00 Championship Peterborough v Southampton Tue 17 Apr 19:45 Championship Middlesbrough v Southampton Sat 21 Apr 15:00 Championship Southampton v Coventry Sat 28 Apr 12:30 Out of that I reckon away to West Ham is the hardest, but apart from that, there isn't anything else that we can't win. What do you think?
We can win all of them, but that's not to say we will. I reckon we will win enough to stay 2nd or hopefully go 1st. Every game we play and stay 2nd the closer we are to the finishing line.
Considering our performances have steadily been improving, a convincing win against Burnley would put us in a good place going into the West Ham game. It looks quite nice after that as well.
Win, Lose, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Win, Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win. Would be very pleased if we got 30 points from these games. Would still be estatic with a play off place, absolutely delighted.
Four points from these next two games would do very nicely. I wont look any further than that just yet, as the Derby game will be postponed should we beat Millwall this Tuesday.
If we win all our home games and draw all our aways that's 35 points, which would give us 87. That should be enough for an auto spot.
Home form will be crucial, as virtually all of games against top opposition are away. If we can get at least 18 out of 24 points at home, and 12 out of 27 away, that's 82 points...a total that has been good enough for automatic promotion in seven of the past nine seasons.
With so many sides involved, I wouldn't be surprised if 2nd place ultimately get promoted with a record low number of points for an automatic promoted team - and I certainly reckon that the record low number of points required to finish in the play-offs will be under threat. Week in, week out teams are taking points off of each, simply because there are so many sides involved. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham finishes with a half decent total though. I've always thought that once they get some clear air between themselves and the rest (and four points is now "clear air" in my book), they'll run away with it.
I have us finishing on 81 points. We need to beat one or two teams around us to get autos. Draws are ok in those games but there are more and more teams getting in the pack and making a final push for the autos. Draws will just make it all the more tighter. The one thing that concerns me is our lack of a big scalp away from home.
We've got enough big away games still to come to fix that! But it's not like we've done poorly against the few big-ish sides that we have played away. We've come away with a point from Birmingham, Reading, Derby and Burnley - all of whom are currently top half sides, and very much in the promotion race. They're good points by themselves, but if you can add three home points to them (as we have done with Birmingham), then they are great points.
I still think 80 ish points will be enough for promotion, judging by how tight it is. 17 games left, 54 points to play for and we are on 52 points currently. Therefore we need 9 wins and one draw out of 17. Win these games: Championship Southampton v Burnley Sat 11 Feb 15:00 Championship Southampton v Derby Sat 18 Feb 15:00 Championship Watford v Southampton Sat 25 Feb 15:00 Championship Southampton v Ipswich Tue 6 Mar 19:45 Championship Southampton v Barnsley Sat 10 Mar 15:00 Championship Millwall v Southampton Sat 17 Mar 15:00 Championship Hull v Southampton Tue 20 Mar 19:45 Championship Southampton v Doncaster Sat 24 Mar 15:00 Championship Southampton v Coventry Sat 28 Apr 12:30 Championship Peterborough v Southampton Tue 17 Apr 19:45 Draw these: Championship Southampton v Portsmouth Sat 7 Apr 13:00 Championship Crystal Palace v Southampton Mon 9 Apr 15:00 That would give us 32 points = 84 points overall
I would not class Derby, Burnley or Reading (at the time we played them) amongst the big boys and you have kindly highlighted that we also failed to win those games. I'm not saying we have not done well and that we don't have more big away games to come. I'd just like us to have more conviction to win a few of the big away games because they are the games that will ultimately determine whether our season is a success or a failure.
Well with all respect, if you're not going to include those games, then you've only really got today's game and the away game vs Cardiff as "big" away games so far. And I wouldn't exactly make a big deal about not winning either of them, especially as we were arguably the best team in both of them.
I think Hull will have a blip now that Barmby has been appointed long term manager, funny how it happens sometimes when the role becomes permanent the emphasis shifts.
You can also look at it this way: 52 points/29 games = 1.79 points per game. At this rate for the last 17 games: 17 x 1.79 = 30.5 giving us 82/83 points .
To st_brendy Fair point, but playing well does not put points on the board. My altered assessment is that we dont beat the top half teams away from home...fact. A draw is 1 point but a win is 3 points, so to take three points from a rival is huge! Had we beaten Cardiff away (whilst playing well) we would be 6 points higher than them up the table. Had we beaten Brum away today we would have clear breathing space on them. They will be right with us till the end trust me. Conviction is all that is required.
One game at a time, draw a blue line, and move on, control the controllables etc... There will be plenty more shock results to come, so not much point getting worried about what might happen in 3 months. It's just like last season, except even better.
Obviously I agree with this (who wouldn't?!), but I still maintain that if you take 4 points off of each of your rivals, then you're highly likely to be in a great position, respective to your aims - no matter if you're fighting it out for a title, or battling against relegation. We've now achieved that against Birmingham, and 'only' require draws away to West Ham, Leeds, Hull and Boro to tick them off as well. Reading, Derby and Burnley we would all need to beat, but they're at home so I'd back us to do that. The only issues are that we've failed to take 4 points off of Cardiff and Brighton, whilst taking 4 points off of Blackpool will be very difficult.
