Ante Post Big Races (no Cheltenham Festival)

[Grendel]

Moon Target is 5/4 this morning so 3/1 looks pretty good now.

If she wins today you would think the Fillies Mike would be the next target if she is having another run this year. With that in mind 12/1 looks too big a price to leave alone. Other contenders will be coming into the race with stamina questions ans hopefully that box will be ticked today.

I've gone in fot the 1000 Guineas as well, as 25/1 seems more realistic than for some of the Fillies listed.

Fillies Mile MOON TARGET 12/1
1000 Guineas 25/1

Fingers crossed.

 

[Grendel]

Just a footnote on Zanthos' flop and Touleen's impressive win. Touleen was put in as 9/4 Fav for the Rockfel and that looks plenty short enough. Despite the easy win, it was a class 4 Novice and the Rockfel is Group 2. It all really comes down to what figure we think Zanthos ran to. If she ran to her opening rating of 101 from the Racing Post then game on for Touleen but I felt the Crisford filly never travelled. If the figures do stack up that way it must have been the best Class 4 novice ever run at Leicester.

 

[Grendel]

Well Moon Target was dismal. She beat today's winner last time out but found nothing when asked and weakened tamely. Mark Prescott was confident beforehand and you have to feel a bit sorry for him getting his bubble burst so brutally. He will be hoping something come to light.

As ever that winner got the best thing since sliced bread treatment from ITV with Matt Chapman asking if the French Guineas might be on the cards. Ffs give the jockey a break. The race is months away and it's not his call anyway.

Mark Prescott has just said Moon Target is finished for the season and could only express his disappointment. It was mused that the filly might be too weak for races like today but she had managed to finish ahead of today's winner last time, so that theory doesn't hold much water. 3/1 about an 11/10 shot and she runs like a drain. It's enough to make you bite your Willie.

 

[Grendel]

Well Oxagon finished ahead of Gewan but had to give best to the O'Brien maiden rated 102.

Still, Scandinavia won the St Leger and I had backed him at 7/1 Ante Post. I didn't fancy Lambourn today as he was pretty dismal in the Voltiguer at York.

Looking back at the Derby you would have to say it was pretty poor and Lambourn hasn't looked like a 120 horse on his last two starts.

 

[Grendel]

Well that didn't last long. Zanthos looked awful today. Too keen and never looked happy. I suppose I have seen it often enough with Simon Crisford promising first time up and not progressing. Not a trainer you could have on your mind for the Classics.

Touleen very impressive considering she wad upset beforehand. Hard to know what she beat with Zanthos running miles below her 101 RPR and all the others were big prices and not much expected of them.

Simon Crisford was supposed to be deliberating between the Rockfel and the Fillies Mile beforehand. Not much point in running in either after that dismal effort. Better losing a couple of quid at 6/1 than sticking a wad on at 4/11, it gave me an interest in the race.

The Racing Post awarded Zanthos a RPR of just 84 for her run at Leicester behind Touleen. That is 17 lbs lower than her first run. Touleen was given 95 and that still leaves her with a good bit to find for the Group 2 Rockfel where she is a warm 9/4 favourite. A 4/11 Fav runs more than a stone below it's previous start and nobody bats an eyelid. Instead the horse that beats it is given the superstar treatment.

 

[Grendel]

Moon Target may run again this season after all. Mark Prescott declared that she was done for the year but is now looking at either the Rockfel or Fillies Mile. He could not believe how poorly she ran last time and felt something must be amiss but she wasn't in season and nothing else has come to light.

She will need the mother of all comebacks.

 

[Bustino74]

The Racing Post awarded Zanthos a RPR of just 84 for her run at Leicester behind Touleen. That is 17 lbs lower than her first run. Touleen was given 95 and that still leaves her with a good bit to find for the Group 2 Rockfel where she is a warm 9/4 favourite. A 4/11 Fav runs more than a stone below it's previous start and nobody bats an eyelid. Instead the horse that beats it is given the superstar treatment.

It's all relative.

For all we know Zanthos may have run to 90 or 95 last week. In which case Touleen ran to 101 or 106. All these ratings can leave egg on the face of the raters because they may have prejudices. It's happened countless times before.

Touleen is not given the superstar treatment by the racing post raters.

I always thought amiss did mean 'in season', though in common parlance it means something is/was wrong

 

[Grendel]

It's more the media who get a milk bottle in their trousers. The race raters did not get carried away but the race report was screaming about 14/1 for the 1000 Guineas. It was only a class 4 novice where the 4/11 Fav was dismal and the rest were moderate.

Only the other day Alan King's Spyce won a Yarmouth maiden by a neck and they were talking about him being backed for the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster. The reality is that the Gosden runner up, who lost by a small margin on debut, would be likely to be favoured in a match bet if they met again. I suspect the assessors will be hamstrung by how highly they can rate a 2YO runner up on their debut.

Spyce can be backed at 33/1 if anyone fancies him for the Futurity.

 

[Grendel]

As I suspected, Spyce was rated 84 by the Racing Post for winning at the second attempt. He had earned 88 on his debut by the same assessors. It doesn't scream Group 1 next stop but if you want to ruin a horses mark in a hurry fair enough.

 

[Grendel]

Moon Target makes a surprise appearance in the Rockfel tomorrow. Having said it was over for the season Mark Prescott has gone for cheekpieces and the drop back to 7F

It's almost as if the trainer has a point to prove with her and cannot wait until next year to be proved in his high opinion of her. After going off favourite in all her races she is 12/1 this time but has not travelled well in her last two starts. Touleen is locking horns with Zanthos again after brushing her aside easily last time when the Crisford filly was 4/11 but she looks mighty short as Fav at 5/4. The Prettiest Star won her only start in good style but the form hasn't been working out. Samra Green is by Saxon Warrior and won a modest looking race at Haydock. This is a big step up but Karl Burke has to be respected and she is 33/1 for fans of outsiders.

 

[Grendel]

Distant Storm put up the most impressive performance of the season by a colt in the 2YO ranks this season in my opinion when winning the Tattersalls at Newbury yesterday.
Catallus was blatantly running as a pacemaker for the 6/5 Fav who hadn't settled in the Acomb at York. Distant Storm sat out back and briefly looked in trouble but he picked up well and clearly had the race in the bag some way from home. He fairly stormed clear to win by 4 and 3/4 lengths in a performance that is surely in the 110s and the best I have seen thus far.

Reinvested (pissed away) my Zanthos winnings from the Rockfel for the Dewhurst and Guineas. Charlie Appleby was very confident going into yesterday and visually Distant Storm will get a mile.

Dewhurst DISTANT STORM 5/1
2000 Guineas DISTANT STORM 14/1

 

[Grendel]

The Rockfel Stakes often sees horses with Guineas aspirations line up. An early one to catch my eye as a contender was Dance To The Music. She is unbeaten in two starts but scrambled home somewhat last time. Put is at 14/1 for next year's 1000 Guineas looked short enough. Charlie Appleby would later say that he didn't see her as a Guineas filly and that hardly inspires confidence.

I noted that Simon Crisford's Zanthos earned a RPR of 101 when making a winning debut at Newmarket and it takes a smart 2YO to do that. The third has won since and the filly lines up at Leicester tommorow in a novices event. She has to concede 7lbs to Touleen, who won her only start but she is well behind Zanthos on Racing Post Ratings thus far and may be a longer term prospect. No betting as I write but I suspect Zanthos will be a warm order.

I am assuming tomorrow's run is to give Zanthos more experience before stepping up in class and I would rather back her for the Rockfel than go in at short odds.

Rockfel Stakes ZANTHOS 6/1

You get 6/1 Ante Post and she wins at 15/2 on the day, still I'll take it

 

[Pilgrim]

Newmarket Saturday 11th October
Cesarewitch
Divine Comedy 20/1 e/w WH, Lads and Coral four places

 

[Grendel]

The Racing Post awarded 108 to Distant Storm for his Tattersalls romp. I thought that was bollocks as I had him easily into the 110s
I don't know what a horse has got to do because Bow Echo got 111 for winning the Royal Lodge and the didn't look much stronger than theTattersalls despite being a Group 2.

Looking to the Dewhurst the Official Ratings have Zavateri on 118, Gstaad on 117 and Distant Storm 114. It will be a cracker if all three show up.

Does anyone know know how Wise Approach got 116 from the Racing Post for winning the Middle Park? Runner up Brussels was awarded 107 yet beaten 3/4 a length. I doubt it is 9 lbs for 3/4 of a length?

 

[Benvenuto Cellini]

The Racing Post awarded 108 to Distant Storm for his Tattersalls romp. I thought that was bollocks as I had him easily into the 110s
I don't know what a horse has got to do because Bow Echo got 111 for winning the Royal Lodge and the didn't look much stronger than theTattersalls despite being a Group 2.

Looking to the Dewhurst the Official Ratings have Zavateri on 118, Gstaad on 117 and Distant Storm 114. It will be a cracker if all three show up.

Does anyone know know how Wise Approach got 116 from the Racing Post for winning the Middle Park? Runner up Brussels was awarded 107 yet beaten 3/4 a length. I doubt it is 9 lbs for 3/4 of a length?

they must have taken into account what happened to him at the start, nearly getting brought down, and marked him up for it

 

[Benvenuto Cellini]

Benvenuto Cellini looks a potential superstar, he ran in the Irish Derby weekend maiden that Obrien often runs his best in with City Of Troy, Australia, Anthony Van Dyck, Gleneagles and Roderic OConner all starting there. Shaped with plenty of promise in 2nd to the Goffs Million winner Dorset who made all with the benefit of previous experience, the 3rd Al Haarith has since ran 3rd in the Beresford and New Zealand came out and won a good maiden, so there was plenty of substance to it.

Sent off 2/5 at Killarney next time, hacked round in front off a slow pace and won easily while still looking pretty green, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all gone on to win and are rated around 100 now. Was then 1/2 fav for the Champion Juvenile after the expected favourite Montreal was pulled out. It was another slowly run race, 3.4s slower than the Matron, sat in 2nd before opening up in the straight to win by 5L.

Not sure what he beat there, but he appears to have a really freakish stride, the way he opened up and lengthened was seriously impressive, and the range of his striding is also noteworthy - he went as low as 2.03sps and up to 2.35sps, which off the top of my head is an unusually large range at 0.32. It suggests he will go as slow as you want and be very energy efficient, but he also has the speed to be lethal off that slow pace

Its also perfect for Epsom where you really need to drop the stride rate quite low to race efficiently, and by all accounts he also has that laid back bombproof mentality to handle the occasion. He seems to have everything you want in a top class Derby horse, including the looks - a flashy chestnut with a striking and distinctive white blaze, and the Frankel out of a top class miler pedigree like Adayar and Westover.

And whats most encouraging about him is everything screams middle distance next season, hes not a polished precocious 2yo, hes getting more professional with every start and will likely step forward again in the Futurity, for which he looks likely to start a short favourite. Gosden has never won the race, but has run some good ones in it and his Morris Dancer looks likely to provide a serious challenge with rock solid form in the book.

All the talk has been Derby trials, and I got burned last year with Delacroix going that route when he should have gone Guineas, but the Futurity is one of the best Guineas trials now, and were he to go and win impressively, the Guineas would have to come under consideration. If he was able to win the Guineas, we could have a real triple crown candidate on our hands because ive got no doubt hes made for the Derby and his striding will give him every chance in a Leger. Were due another Camelot.

Benvenuto Cellini
Guineas 16/1
Derby 12/1

 

[NassauBoard]

The Racing Post awarded 108 to Distant Storm for his Tattersalls romp. I thought that was bollocks as I had him easily into the 110s
I don't know what a horse has got to do because Bow Echo got 111 for winning the Royal Lodge and the didn't look much stronger than theTattersalls despite being a Group 2.

Looking to the Dewhurst the Official Ratings have Zavateri on 118, Gstaad on 117 and Distant Storm 114. It will be a cracker if all three show up.

Does anyone know know how Wise Approach got 116 from the Racing Post for winning the Middle Park? Runner up Brussels was awarded 107 yet beaten 3/4 a length. I doubt it is 9 lbs for 3/4 of a length?

Because of the incident at the start?

 

[Grendel]

Benvenuto Cellini looks Aidans most exciting prospect with next year in mind.

I had thought Albert Einstein and Charles Darwin would be his best this year but Albert Einstein suffered a season ending injury. Charles Darwin won the Norfolk in good enough style but we have not seen him again and he's probably a sprinter. Outside of those two there is a fair old log jam of colt's of similar ability and I couldn't be getting excited about any of them really. Montreal would be the other I would mark as being a potentially good 3YO.

Are you worried about Andrew Balding's Nice Black Caviar? The colt was being touted as a Futurity possible, Guineas and Derby colt on At The Races. All this after winning, wait for it, a class 4 Novice at Bath. He was 4/6 and beat just three rivals. Dear God we will be scouring Ffos Las for Classic contenders next.

 

[Ron]

Benvenuto Cellini looks a potential superstar, he ran in the Irish Derby weekend maiden that Obrien often runs his best in with City Of Troy, Australia, Anthony Van Dyck, Gleneagles and Roderic OConner all starting there. Shaped with plenty of promise in 2nd to the Goffs Million winner Dorset who made all with the benefit of previous experience, the 3rd Al Haarith has since ran 3rd in the Beresford and New Zealand came out and won a good maiden, so there was plenty of substance to it.

Sent off 2/5 at Killarney next time, hacked round in front off a slow pace and won easily while still looking pretty green, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all gone on to win and are rated around 100 now. Was then 1/2 fav for the Champion Juvenile after the expected favourite Montreal was pulled out. It was another slowly run race, 3.4s slower than the Matron, sat in 2nd before opening up in the straight to win by 5L.

Not sure what he beat there, but he appears to have a really freakish stride, the way he opened up and lengthened was seriously impressive, and the range of his striding is also noteworthy - he went as low as 2.03sps and up to 2.35sps, which off the top of my head is an unusually large range at 0.32. It suggests he will go as slow as you want and be very energy efficient, but he also has the speed to be lethal off that slow pace

Its also perfect for Epsom where you really need to drop the stride rate quite low to race efficiently, and by all accounts he also has that laid back bombproof mentality to handle the occasion. He seems to have everything you want in a top class Derby horse, including the looks - a flashy chestnut with a striking and distinctive white blaze, and the Frankel out of a top class miler pedigree like Adayar and Westover.

And whats most encouraging about him is everything screams middle distance next season, hes not a polished precocious 2yo, hes getting more professional with every start and will likely step forward again in the Futurity, for which he looks likely to start a short favourite. Gosden has never won the race, but has run some good ones in it and his Morris Dancer looks likely to provide a serious challenge with rock solid form in the book.

All the talk has been Derby trials, and I got burned last year with Delacroix going that route when he should have gone Guineas, but the Futurity is one of the best Guineas trials now, and were he to go and win impressively, the Guineas would have to come under consideration. If he was able to win the Guineas, we could have a real triple crown candidate on our hands because ive got no doubt hes made for the Derby and his striding will give him every chance in a Leger. Were due another Camelot.

Benvenuto Cellini
Guineas 16/1
Derby 12/1

Christophe Soumillon went over for the ride in the Champions Juvenile Stakes. Maybe he spotted a classic winner and will keep the ride. He's no fool

 

[Benvenuto Cellini]

Benvenuto Cellini looks Aidans most exciting prospect with next year in mind.

I had thought Albert Einstein and Charles Darwin would be his best this year but Albert Einstein suffered a season ending injury. Charles Darwin won the Norfolk in good enough style but we have not seen him again and he's probably a sprinter. Outside of those two there is a fair old log jam of colt's of similar ability and I couldn't be getting excited about any of them really. Montreal would be the other I would mark as being a potentially good 3YO.

Are you worried about Andrew Balding's Nice Black Caviar? The colt was being touted as a Futurity possible, Guineas and Derby colt on At The Races. All this after winning, wait for it, a class 4 Novice at Bath. He was 4/6 and beat just three rivals. Dear God we will be scouring Ffos Las for Classic contenders next.

nice looking horse but not much substance to the form and I wouldnt be throwing him into the deep end this season, this race does tend to attract some tilting at windmills with maiden winners, 9 times out of 10 theyre tailed off, its been a while since Marcel won it and I did back him at a big price incidentally

there is one maiden who I think could be interesting were he to be supplemented, thats Ed Dunlops Pathein who won a maiden over course and distance when unfancied at 28/1 on debut, travelled nicely through the race and battled well to win, St Marks Basilica has really stamped him and I liked how strong he was after the line considering it was testing ground

theres not much form to go on but a couple of little hints that its not bad, Del Moro had run an unlucky 2nd to Glacius who ran with credit in that strong looking Ascendant Stakes, and he was 4.5L back in 3rd, the runner up Lyneham looks a nice staying prospect, by Wootton Basset out of a sister to Found, and is entered at Newmarket on Saturday, he would need to frank the form for them to consider it youd imagine