Scandinavia's official rating had not changed from 103 on the Ihrb website so I wrote to the Irish Handicapper asking why this was. He explained this was an oversight and told me the horse's new rating is 114. This leaves him just 6lbs behind Lambourn and the hope is that the Derby winner will skip the Leger. Generally 7/2 Scandinavia now and obviously he will start a good deal shorter yet if Lambourn is aimed elsewhere.
Really interesting that OUTFIELDER of Wesley Wards has been declared at the latest forfeit stage for the Gimcrack.... currently round 10...
Save your money. OUTFIELDER is said to be running in the Prix Morny instead. Ward has won it three times before and was second on another occasion. Wise Approach looks poor value for the Gimcrack at 2/1. Charlie Appleby has had a poor time of it with his 2YOs this season. Treanmor was said to be his best by some way, with talk of having nothing that could get him off the bridle at home. Appleby was very confident going into the Chesham but the colt ran like a drain and seems to have fallen off a cliff now. The Chesham winner Humidity sank without trace at Goodwood and a couple of O'brien 6F colts share the 2000 Guineas favouritism at 12/1. Gstaad carries the Coventry curse as not many go on to Guineas glory. Albert Einstein is supposed to be the best by some way based on chatter but is injured and may not run again this season. The form of his two wins has not really worked out. Publish only went up I lb on Racing Post ratings for his win but returns to Sandown for the Solario which was won by Kingman and Fields Of Gold in their years. Hopefully he can emerge victorious with an enhanced rating.
Aidan has said Lambourn is going to the St Leger. After initially saying he was not disappointed too much by his Voltiguer run I think it is a clear indication. that he was actually as gutted as a kipper and knows the colt can't win the Arc. I have seen Lambourn at 8/1 for the Leger, with Scandinavia Evens favourite. The 1000 and 2000 Guineas are still 10/1 the field as we head into September. As ever, it seems horses with stamina questions will dominate debate over the winter.
Would Venetian Sun be much shorter for the 1000 guineas if she were trained by Aiden O'Brien? Trainer Karl Burke saying she will step up to 7F in the Moyglare Stud Stakes next.
No doubt Venetian Sun would be a clear favourite if Aidan were her trainer. His record speaks for itself though and Karl Burke isn't in the same ballpark regarding classic winners. It's a sensible move stepping up to 7F now. So many trainers go Cheveley Park and never test them until they are 3yo and in the Fred Darling or Nell Gwyn. Most in my memory fail to get the trip. The Moyglare looks winnable. Composing is the favourite but she looks nothing special thus far and Venetian Sun has more substance to her form to my eyes. I have done a double on Venetian Sun at 2/1 for the Moyglare and Publish at 6/4 for the Solario. John Gosden's colt did not get raised much for winning last time but the runner up won by miles in a canter next time, albeit at skinny odds. Publish looks a horse for next season but can net some nice prizes this season and I feel he can jump into the leading colts of the 2yo ranks. Moyglare VENETIAN SUN 2/1 Solario PUBLISH 6/4 Double pays 13/2
Just 7 runners in the Solario. Publish is generally 10/11 now. Goldolphin's Pacific Avenue is 2nd Fav. Humidity flopped last time but earlier won the Chesham and 10/1 looks a big price. In addition, although only 7th last time out, his form was only 2 lb below his Chesham run. That said, the Chesham hasn't worked out well and you would have expected him to progress on his third start and you feel his official rating of 103 will not be enough here. He goes into the race as top rated on Racing Post figures but it is near certain that some of the field will step up their form.
Publish not running now. It's soft good to soft in places. He won on good last time. Talk about wrapping horses in cotton wool. What makes Gosden think we won't get soft this autumn? 10/1 Humidity looks massive now. I'll be watching the football now.
Publish now headed to Haydock for the Ascendant, a Listed race over a mile. Gosden won the race with Foundation but if I remember correctly that Colt went on to the Royal Lodge and Racing Post trophy. He won the former but not the latter, with a 50/1 shot causing an upset. I'm not a fan of 7f, a mile, and back to 7f as a progression. He would likely meet some 6f colt's if Dewhurst bound and that may bring questions on the back of a mile victory.
Publish has opened at 7/4 (Unibet) and 6/4 (Skybet and Paddy Power) for the Ascendant Stakes. It looks a decent entry with several of them higher rated than Publish at present. Aidan has several but probably won't run many of them. There is a Godolphin colt who is one from oneand a couple of others with the same record. 2nd Fav is George Boughey's Bow Echo, who was a ready winner at the trip in a Newbury maiden. The runner up has won since and Bow Echo looked the sort to keep an eye on. The betting has changed now and Publish has gone out to 5/2 and is currently jt Fav with Bow Echo. If Haydock gets more rain it is likely to be soft and presumably Publish will be pulled out again. On the whole I get the feeling Publish will not run. In any case Bow Echo has little to find with him on ratings and fairly scampered home last time. I'll have him in the circumstances. Ascendant Stakes BOW ECHO 5/2
Just looked at the race and I'm not saying Publish won't win but I wouldn't be interested at odds on. Bow Echo does look the only one capable of beating him but with 8 runners in the race I'm going for He's Wallim EW at ........AGHHHHGH **** NR Ah well that's my interest gone
They couldn't give Publish away. He went all the way out to 11/4 after trading at slight odds on. He sat at the back and was trailing by quite a way at one stage. When asked to close he made up the ground and looked sure to win despite his unpromising position early. Trading at 1/10 in running he briefly led but Bow Echo went on again to win. My first winner since Grundy won the 1975 Derby it felt like. The feeling on ITV Racing was that Bow Echo found more to win but I felt Publish got tired. He had a lot to do and I thought we could have uprated his performance had he won. Going into the race, connections had said they were confident Publish would get a mile once he strengthened up but we're not sure if he was there yet and he wouldn't be the first big specimen to have outgrown his strength at 2YO. The opinion was that today's race would show whether to stay at the mile or go back to 7F. I think they got their answer today. The plan was only one more run this season. Publish was pushed out to 20/1 after today's race, while Bow Echo was cut to 14/1. The latter price makes no appeal to me. Bow Echo is a tiny colt compared to Publish part of my reason for backing him for today was that he looked a fairly forward sort last time out and looked more ready to do himself justice, whereas Publish is more a raw talent who is far from the finished article. I am confident Publish will catch up and pass Bow Echo by over the winter.
Moon Target was a bit slowly away last time when beaten by Precise. Lack of racing experience told as she took ages to organise her run and the O'Brien filly had flown. It was still an encouraging run and I think it was natural to go for the May Hill at Doncaster next. Mark Prescott sounded gutted when she was beaten last time and the daughter of Cracksman had him excited from the start. I think she will gain revenge on Precise and will be the one to beat. May Hill Doncaster MOON TARGET 3/1
The Rockfel Stakes often sees horses with Guineas aspirations line up. An early one to catch my eye as a contender was Dance To The Music. She is unbeaten in two starts but scrambled home somewhat last time. Put is at 14/1 for next year's 1000 Guineas looked short enough. Charlie Appleby would later say that he didn't see her as a Guineas filly and that hardly inspires confidence. I noted that Simon Crisford's Zanthos earned a RPR of 101 when making a winning debut at Newmarket and it takes a smart 2YO to do that. The third has won since and the filly lines up at Leicester tommorow in a novices event. She has to concede 7lbs to Touleen, who won her only start but she is well behind Zanthos on Racing Post Ratings thus far and may be a longer term prospect. No betting as I write but I suspect Zanthos will be a warm order. I am assuming tomorrow's run is to give Zanthos more experience before stepping up in class and I would rather back her for the Rockfel than go in at short odds. Rockfel Stakes ZANTHOS 6/1
Zanthos a best priced 4/6 for the Leicester race tomorrow. Touleen, who also carries the 7lb winner's penalty is 2/1 and bigger prices the rest. Heres hoping for a good show.
Well that didn't last long. Zanthos looked awful today. Too keen and never looked happy. I suppose I have seen it often enough with Simon Crisford promising first time up and not progressing. Not a trainer you could have on your mind for the Classics. Touleen very impressive considering she wad upset beforehand. Hard to know what she beat with Zanthos running miles below her 101 RPR and all the others were big prices and not much expected of them. Simon Crisford was supposed to be deliberating between the Rockfel and the Fillies Mile beforehand. Not much point in running in either after that dismal effort. Better losing a couple of quid at 6/1 than sticking a wad on at 4/11, it gave me an interest in the race.
I noticed Saba Desert and Gewan opened JFs for the Champagne Stakes. I felt the former was plenty short enough on his form and the fact that Charlie Appleby's 2YOs haven't looked a strong bunch this season. Saba Desert has been on the drift but the one I fancy to beat them both is the Gosden colt Oxagon. Oxagon was handled considerately when 5th on debut but looked the part next time when bolting up. I feel he will come forward again and the trainer is never one to send a horse unless he feels they are up to the grade. The son of Frankel gets the nod over Gewan who has done nothing wrong but I am little dubious as to how his form will stand up Doncaster Champagne Stakes OXAGON 11/4
I do like well bred 2yos that are given a kind introduction, finishing not too far behind in 5th or 6th place to decent winners in a 12 or more runner race (was slowly away as well). Especially when they win impressively nto. I haven't looked at the Champagne Stakes at all but, given that form, I would certainly be interested in Oxagon
7/4 Fav now Oxagon. Gewan is close behind on 15/8 They can't give Saba Desert away at 5/1 and Appleby had an odds on second time out runner Monoceros get stuffed at Leicester yesterday when only 3rd at 4/9 Its not been Appleby's year after getting off to success in both Guineas. The 2YO runners have tended to fail to progress. He even had poor old Ruling Court go and die.
