Ante Post Big Races (no Cheltenham Festival)
- Thread starter Pilgrim
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In the big sprint at Ascot I am going for a rank outsider each-way.
SPY CHIEF has only won once in modest company but has run well on occasions in decent company. His win was an upset because he turned over 4/9 favourite Almeraq from the Haggas stable. There was little fluke about it as he beat that useful sort by more than five lengths. Almeraq went on to win at Ayr and then fell next time when fancied.
Spy Chief himself ran placed in the Jersey Stakes over 7F at Royal Ascot and although a bit disappointing a couple of times it is hoped that he is better at 6F than the 7F he has tackled the last twice. Not disgraced in the July Cup when 7th he was not beaten far by Big Mojo, who was 4th that day and later went on to win the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock.
Sexier and more familiar names for sure in the Ascot race on Saturday but Spy Chief is 66/1 in places. Sky Bet and Paddy Power go five places each-way.
Champion Sprint Ascot SPY CHIEF EW 66/1 five places
Big Boo-Hiss to 888 for being 3 places only each way and only 33/1. Get real ffs people can shop around for better value than those miserly terms.
SPY CHIEF has only won once in modest company but has run well on occasions in decent company. His win was an upset because he turned over 4/9 favourite Almeraq from the Haggas stable. There was little fluke about it as he beat that useful sort by more than five lengths. Almeraq went on to win at Ayr and then fell next time when fancied.
Spy Chief himself ran placed in the Jersey Stakes over 7F at Royal Ascot and although a bit disappointing a couple of times it is hoped that he is better at 6F than the 7F he has tackled the last twice. Not disgraced in the July Cup when 7th he was not beaten far by Big Mojo, who was 4th that day and later went on to win the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock.
Sexier and more familiar names for sure in the Ascot race on Saturday but Spy Chief is 66/1 in places. Sky Bet and Paddy Power go five places each-way.
Champion Sprint Ascot SPY CHIEF EW 66/1 five places
Big Boo-Hiss to 888 for being 3 places only each way and only 33/1. Get real ffs people can shop around for better value than those miserly terms.
In the Balmoral Handicap I felt Cerulean Bay had a squeak. He has found his form of late and is only 1lb higher than when winning at Goodwood on Sunday.
The stable have a pretty good record in the race and the horse has pulled off a hat trick in the past. His record at a mile is pretty strong for a Handicapper and 16/1 EW six places is appealing to me.
Balmoral Handicap CERULEAN BAY 16/1 EW six places.
The stable have a pretty good record in the race and the horse has pulled off a hat trick in the past. His record at a mile is pretty strong for a Handicapper and 16/1 EW six places is appealing to me.
Balmoral Handicap CERULEAN BAY 16/1 EW six places.
Just a quote from Gosden junior regarding Spy Chief:-
Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Spy Chief. He ran a great race to be second in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, so we know he likes the track, and dropping back to a stiff six should help him.
Sixth place will do for me at double carpet twice.
Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Spy Chief. He ran a great race to be second in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, so we know he likes the track, and dropping back to a stiff six should help him.
Sixth place will do for me at double carpet twice.
Spy Chief was fairly prominent early doors but weakened badly.
Cerulean Bay was well positioned to strike but when the jockey asked him it was as if he had applied the brakes and he weakened rapidly. Quite a puzzling effort.
Rank outsiders on the day but I didn't pick them quite rank enough. My picks were rank in their own way though despite starting well shorter than the odds I took.
I feared the worst when Jason Weaver said "Here's one at a price..... Spy Chief is huge at 33/1"
I was calling the Samaratins seconds later.
Cerulean Bay was well positioned to strike but when the jockey asked him it was as if he had applied the brakes and he weakened rapidly. Quite a puzzling effort.
Rank outsiders on the day but I didn't pick them quite rank enough. My picks were rank in their own way though despite starting well shorter than the odds I took.
I feared the worst when Jason Weaver said "Here's one at a price..... Spy Chief is huge at 33/1"
I was calling the Samaratins seconds later.
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The Futurity at Doncaster has attracted only half a dozen runners. Benvenuto Cellini is favourite at 5/4 for Aidan O'brien with Hawk Mountain 5/2 for the same connections.
Hawk Mountain was 8/1 a few days ago and that looked big given the relative form with the Fav. Benvenuto Cellini has the most potential but may not get there this year, however Soumillon is on him and that suggests he is top dog going into the race, although Hawk Mountain will not be making up the numbers.
Item has been well touted in the media but won at Bath and is taking a huge leap forward. The race at Bath fitted the time spacing and need not be down graded on Class of venue but for me Item would have been better served nudging his way to Group 1 company next spring. 17/2 for Item looks miserly and I could see him drifting.
I feel Oxagon is the value at 9/1. A bit disappointing in the Dewhurst when fifth, he had previously finished ahead of winner Gewan when runner up to Lagardere winner Puerto Rico at Donny in the Champagne. Oxagon finished strongly that day and looked like he needed a mile. Faster ground in the Dewhurst didn't suit him and I feel his form is right up there. He is 19 lbs higher than Item and I see no reason he should be bigger than the Balding horse.
In any given season you would normally think a Dewhurst horse would be that bit better quality than the average Futurity contender. Oxagon is narrowly best on Racing Post and Official figures and while there are others who may have more scope I thought Oxagon could improve further for stepping up to a mile and if he were coming here straight from the Champagne Stakes to tackle these over 7F I feel he would probably be Fav.
2.05 Doncaster Saturday OXAGON 9/1
Hawk Mountain was 8/1 a few days ago and that looked big given the relative form with the Fav. Benvenuto Cellini has the most potential but may not get there this year, however Soumillon is on him and that suggests he is top dog going into the race, although Hawk Mountain will not be making up the numbers.
Item has been well touted in the media but won at Bath and is taking a huge leap forward. The race at Bath fitted the time spacing and need not be down graded on Class of venue but for me Item would have been better served nudging his way to Group 1 company next spring. 17/2 for Item looks miserly and I could see him drifting.
I feel Oxagon is the value at 9/1. A bit disappointing in the Dewhurst when fifth, he had previously finished ahead of winner Gewan when runner up to Lagardere winner Puerto Rico at Donny in the Champagne. Oxagon finished strongly that day and looked like he needed a mile. Faster ground in the Dewhurst didn't suit him and I feel his form is right up there. He is 19 lbs higher than Item and I see no reason he should be bigger than the Balding horse.
In any given season you would normally think a Dewhurst horse would be that bit better quality than the average Futurity contender. Oxagon is narrowly best on Racing Post and Official figures and while there are others who may have more scope I thought Oxagon could improve further for stepping up to a mile and if he were coming here straight from the Champagne Stakes to tackle these over 7F I feel he would probably be Fav.
2.05 Doncaster Saturday OXAGON 9/1
Oxagon sank without trace on the heavy ground.
Benvenuto Cellini look like Hawk Mountain's little brother.
Hard to know what to make of it but Aidan was keen to claim all three were promising sorts. There is not much point asking him anything before or after a race. You can write the replies down the pub from any previous interview and you would be verbatim.
Hard to know what was proven today and all three of O Briens runners only shuffled a bit in the Derby betting. Hawk Mountain is 12/1 Fav and the other two 20/1.
Puerto Rico runs at St Cloud Sunday in the Group 1 Criterium over 1M on soft/heavy ground. He has 4 of the 7 runners and so Joseph has one. Puerto Rico is 8/11 and has nearly a stone in hand on ratings.
Sad that a Group 1 in France has only one French trained runner. Jean Claude Rouget provides the only home contender, with Ralph Beckett saddling Cape Orator to make up a disappointing field.
Although Oxagon did little for Puerto Rico's form in the Futurity the Gosden Colt ran too poorly to be his form I reckon that I might have given him a race myself with a pair of waders. 9/1 into 11/4 but typically the horse hadn't read the script and left his oars back home.
Benvenuto Cellini look like Hawk Mountain's little brother.
Hard to know what to make of it but Aidan was keen to claim all three were promising sorts. There is not much point asking him anything before or after a race. You can write the replies down the pub from any previous interview and you would be verbatim.
Hard to know what was proven today and all three of O Briens runners only shuffled a bit in the Derby betting. Hawk Mountain is 12/1 Fav and the other two 20/1.
Puerto Rico runs at St Cloud Sunday in the Group 1 Criterium over 1M on soft/heavy ground. He has 4 of the 7 runners and so Joseph has one. Puerto Rico is 8/11 and has nearly a stone in hand on ratings.
Sad that a Group 1 in France has only one French trained runner. Jean Claude Rouget provides the only home contender, with Ralph Beckett saddling Cape Orator to make up a disappointing field.
Although Oxagon did little for Puerto Rico's form in the Futurity the Gosden Colt ran too poorly to be his form I reckon that I might have given him a race myself with a pair of waders. 9/1 into 11/4 but typically the horse hadn't read the script and left his oars back home.
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Straight forward for Puerto Rico. He led pretty much all the way and had everything off the bridle and was in control a furlong from home. The winning margin could have been much bigger if required. He was made favourite for the Guineas and also cut for the Derby.
It looks like he won't run in France next year now unless it's the Arc of course. Aidan said he will start in the Guineas and work towards the Derby. He's got a lot of speed but also stays, he can act on soft but the trainer thinks he will love fast ground, he can take a lead but is happy in front. Jesus, is there anything this horse CAN'T do?
I have had a tickle at 66/1 for the Arc, when will you ever get odds like those on the new Pegasus?
It looks like he won't run in France next year now unless it's the Arc of course. Aidan said he will start in the Guineas and work towards the Derby. He's got a lot of speed but also stays, he can act on soft but the trainer thinks he will love fast ground, he can take a lead but is happy in front. Jesus, is there anything this horse CAN'T do?
I have had a tickle at 66/1 for the Arc, when will you ever get odds like those on the new Pegasus?
Pierre Bonnard is 8/1 Fav for the Derby. That seems appalling value after beating a 100 sort of horse on very soft Ground at St Cloud. A Boy Named Susie has hardly been setting the world alight and this St Cloud race is a real plodders affair. I can't recall a winner who triumphed at Epsom.
I don't think he's done enough to warrant being Fav for Epsom. More a Leger/future Cup horse.
I don't think he's done enough to warrant being Fav for Epsom. More a Leger/future Cup horse.
Yes, seems odd to me. On a line through
Shaihaan, he has something to find on Hawk Mountain who is 12/1
The Zetland Stakes won earlier by Pierre Bonnard has never seen its winner go on to glory at Epsom in my memory either. Several good stayers have emerged from the list though.
The closest I would have thought was Silver Patriarch, who nearly caught Benny The Dip after the Gosden colt kicked clear but was running on fumes in the last 100 yards. I had various bets running on to Benny The Dip, ante post and on the day, and it was an agonising wait for the photo result.
Benny The Dip didn't stay 12F but got away with it on the day. He never won again in three subsequent starts and I count myself lucky that he prevailed at Epsom.
I was glad Item didn't run in the Futurity as it was too big an ask on the heavy ground and would probably have soured the colt. Plenty of time next spring to take in a trial or two.
His latest race was no more than a match but winners came from his first start at Kempston albeit at a modest level.
On breeding I wouldn't say he was sure to get 12F but he looks likely to tackle one of the main trials in the Spring and you are more or less obliged to take your chance at Epsom if winning. At 50/1 he may not be a bad ticket to have next May.
Epsom Derby ITEM 50/1
The closest I would have thought was Silver Patriarch, who nearly caught Benny The Dip after the Gosden colt kicked clear but was running on fumes in the last 100 yards. I had various bets running on to Benny The Dip, ante post and on the day, and it was an agonising wait for the photo result.
Benny The Dip didn't stay 12F but got away with it on the day. He never won again in three subsequent starts and I count myself lucky that he prevailed at Epsom.
I was glad Item didn't run in the Futurity as it was too big an ask on the heavy ground and would probably have soured the colt. Plenty of time next spring to take in a trial or two.
His latest race was no more than a match but winners came from his first start at Kempston albeit at a modest level.
On breeding I wouldn't say he was sure to get 12F but he looks likely to tackle one of the main trials in the Spring and you are more or less obliged to take your chance at Epsom if winning. At 50/1 he may not be a bad ticket to have next May.
Epsom Derby ITEM 50/1
The rise in importance of the Zetland Stakes is an illustration of the changing fashion in British racing. 30 years ago there was only one race over 10f for 2yos and that was the Zetland Stakes. I looked on it then as a race for slower horses that might win over 2 miles as a 3yo (a good example is 1993 winner Double Trigger).
Then of course 2yos ran over 5f only until early June, with 6f added until early July when 7f races appeared. 8f races generally were first seen mid-August. Now that has all changed and an example of this is that the Chesham Stakes is now a 7f race having been traditionally a 6f race for likely stayers!
So I agree 100% with Grendel that it hasn't been a race that traditionally threw up Derby horses. It did throw up the odd good horse: for example Crimson Beau, the '78 winner won the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot the following year.
But racing has changed, whether it's for the better is another thing. The Zetland went from being an oddity to now being a Group 3 race that top trainers target. Pierre Bonnard looks a powerful colt. Though Camelot is seen as a source of stamina he did win the 2000G. PB may be the first Zetland winner to win a Derby, but generally good Derby winners have had real speed. We've had a lot of ordinary Derby winners lately.
Then of course 2yos ran over 5f only until early June, with 6f added until early July when 7f races appeared. 8f races generally were first seen mid-August. Now that has all changed and an example of this is that the Chesham Stakes is now a 7f race having been traditionally a 6f race for likely stayers!
So I agree 100% with Grendel that it hasn't been a race that traditionally threw up Derby horses. It did throw up the odd good horse: for example Crimson Beau, the '78 winner won the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot the following year.
But racing has changed, whether it's for the better is another thing. The Zetland went from being an oddity to now being a Group 3 race that top trainers target. Pierre Bonnard looks a powerful colt. Though Camelot is seen as a source of stamina he did win the 2000G. PB may be the first Zetland winner to win a Derby, but generally good Derby winners have had real speed. We've had a lot of ordinary Derby winners lately.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - 23.05 Precise is as low as 10/11 and it's 7/1 bar
Maybe she is a cert but at those odds and 5 unbeaten fillies in the race I think I would feel more comfortable laying her (if you will excuse the well known betting term in this context)
Maybe she is a cert but at those odds and 5 unbeaten fillies in the race I think I would feel more comfortable laying her (if you will excuse the well known betting term in this context)
Apparrently Trump is looking to put a 30lb tariff on non-American horses.
From next year there will be a Group 1 over 9 furlongs, for 2YOs, run during Irish Champions Weekend - the Golden Fleece Stakes. Could, potentially, shake things up a bit in the 2YO ranks and will certainly be a target for the top, staying juveniles from now on. Will that have an effect on the Zetland???
I've said this before and I'll say it again re the 2YO races I'd look to Group 1 the Coventry Stakes. I know that usually results in the racing purists (remember them?!?) going totally apoplectic but why not?!? Seems madness having all the 2YO Group 1's run in such a relative short space of time towards the end of the campaign. To me it makes sense to have an early headline grabbing race, one that can be used as a top level stepping stone to other top prizes - a 2,000 Guineas for 2YOs if you like before attention is switched to them targeting other headline races. Start the season with a bang rather than a whimper in the 2YO ranks, say I. And don't forget - it's never too early for a 10 from Shirley!!!
Barney, The Coventry has been devalued over the years but, in fairness, it never did produce many Classic winners.
However I do agree with your principle of spreading the Group Ones. Pity they don’t reduce their numbers and give us more valuable handicaps.