Israel-Hamas war: Iran the only victor in latest Gaza Strip fight please log in to view this image People stand outside a mosque destroyed in an Israeli air strike on Khan Younis, Gaza Strip. Photo / AP© Yousef Masoud OPINION There will be only one winner in the war that has broken out between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. And it is neither Israel nor Hamas. In an operation coined “the Al-Aqsa Storm,” Hamas, whose formal name is the Islamic Resistance Movement, fired thousands of rockets into Israel on October 7. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters infiltrated Israel by land, sea and air. Hundreds of Israelis have been killed, more than 2000 injured, and many taken hostage. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war on Hamas and launched airstrikes in Gaza. In the first day of reprisals, close to 400 Palestinians were killed, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. In the weeks ahead, the Israeli military will surely retaliate and kill hundreds more Palestinian militants and civilians. As an analyst of Middle East politics and security, I believe that thousands on both sides will suffer. But when the smoke settles, only one country’s interests will have been served: Iran’s. Already, some analysts are suggesting that Tehran’s fingerprints can be seen on the surprise attack on Israel. At the very least, Iran’s leaders have reacted to the assault with encouragement and support. The champion of Palestine The decisive factor shaping Iran’s foreign policy was the 1979 overthrow of the US-friendly, repressive Shah of Iran and the transfer of state power into the hands of a Shiite Muslim revolutionary regime. That regime was defined by stark anti-American imperialism and anti-Israeli Zionism. The revolution, its leaders claimed, was not just against the corrupt Iranian monarchy; it was intended to confront oppression and injustice everywhere, and especially those governments backed by the United States – chief among them, Israel. For Iran’s leaders, Israel and the United States represented immorality, injustice and the greatest threat to Muslim society and Iranian security. The enduring hostility felt toward Israel is in no small part due to its close ties with the Shah and Israel’s role in his sustained oppression of the Iranian people. Together with the US Central Intelligence Agency, Israel’s intelligence service, the Mossad, helped organise the Shah’s secret police and intelligence service, the SAVAK. This organisation relied on increasingly harsh tactics to put down dissenters during the Shah’s last two decades in power, including mass imprisonment, torture, disappearances, forced exile and killing thousands of Iranians. Support for Palestinian liberation was a central theme of Iran’s revolutionary message. The 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon – in retaliation for Lebanon-based Palestinian attacks against Israel – provided Iran an opportunity to live up to its anti-Zionist rhetoric by challenging Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and checking US influence in the region. Subsidising conflict To that end, Iran sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – a branch of Iran’s military, usually known as the “Revolutionary Guard” – to Lebanon to organise and support Lebanese and Palestinian militants. In Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, Revolutionary Guardsmen instructed Shiite resistance fighters in religion, revolutionary ideology and guerrilla tactics, and provided weapons, funds, training and encouragement. Iran’s leadership transformed these early trainees from a ragtag band of fighters into Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force today, and Iran’s greatest foreign policy success, Hezbollah. Since the early 1980s, Iran has maintained support for anti-Israeli militant groups and operations. The Islamic Republic has publicly pledged millions of dollars of annual support to groups and provides advanced military training for thousands of Palestinian fighters at Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah bases in Iran and Lebanon. Iran runs a sophisticated smuggling network to funnel weapons into Gaza, which has long been cut off from the outside world by an Israeli blockade. Via the Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah, Iran has encouraged and enabled Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas violence, and these Palestinian fighters now represent a crucial element in what foreign affairs analysts call Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the United States, which constitutes Iran’s chief purpose. But Iran cannot risk confronting either state directly. Iranian weapons, funds and training enable surges in Palestinian militant violence against Israel when frustrations boil over, including during the Palestinian uprisings known as the first and second intifadas. Israeli-Palestinian conflicts and death tolls have escalated steadily since 2020. Palestinians are outraged by increased evictions and destruction of property, and how Israel allows Israeli nationalists and settlers to violate a long-standing agreement preventing Jewish prayer at the Al-Aqsa Mosque – a site holy to both Muslims and Jews. In fact, a recent incursion by settlers into Al-Aqsa was specifically cited by Hamas as a justification for the October 7 attack. Attacking normalisation That is not to say that Iran ordered Hamas’ attack on Israel, nor that Iran controls Palestinian militants – they are not Iranian puppets. Nevertheless, Iran’s leaders welcomed the attacks, the timing of which serendipitously works in Iran’s favour and plays into the Islamic republic’s regional battle for influence. “What took place today is in line with the continuation of victories for the anti-Zionist resistance in different fields, including Syria, Lebanon and occupied lands,” according to Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani. The week before the Hamas attack, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman denied reports that Saudi Arabia had paused its recent efforts to normalise relations with Israel, which include a formal declaration of Israel’s right to exist and increased diplomatic engagement. “Every day we get closer,” he said, an assessment praised and echoed by Netanyahu. Israeli-Saudi normalisation would represent the pinnacle of achievement thus far in US diplomatic efforts, including the Abraham Accords, signed by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco in 2020. The accords aimed to normalise and build peaceful relations between Israel and Arab countries across the Middle East and in Africa. Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei lambasted Arab states for signing the Abraham Accords, accusing them of “treason against the global Islamic community”. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah praised Saturday’s violence against Israel and echoed Khamenei’s sentiments, warning that the attacks sent a message, “especially to those seeking normalisation with this enemy”. Israel’s expected heavy-handed response is likely to complicate Saudi Arabia’s normalisation with Israel in the near term, furthering Iran’s aims. Netanyahu said that Israel’s retaliatory operation seeks three objectives: to eliminate the threat of infiltrators and restore peace to attacked Israeli communities, to simultaneously “exact an immense price from the enemy” in Gaza, and to reinforce “other fronts so that nobody should mistakenly join this war”. This last objective is a subtle but clear warning to Hezbollah and Iran to stay out of the fight. Israeli troops have already mobilised to secure its borders, and airstrikes have hit Gaza. In all likelihood, Palestinian attackers will be killed or arrested in a matter of days. Israeli troops and air forces will target known or suspected rocket launch, manufacturing, storage and transportation sites, along with the homes of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad members. But in the process, hundreds of civilians will likely also lose their lives. I believe that Iran expects and welcomes all of this. Read More Hamas surprise attack out of Gaza stuns Israel and ... Hamas attacks Israel: Kiwis fear for family and friends ... Hamas Israel attack: Five things to know about the ... Hamas surprise attack out of Gaza stuns Israel and ... How Iran wins There are at least three possible outcomes to the war, and they all play in Iran’s favour. First, Israel’s heavy-handed response may turn off Saudi Arabia and other Arab states to US-backed Israeli normalisation efforts. Second, if Israel deems it necessary to push further into Gaza to eradicate the threat, this could provoke another Palestinian uprising in East Jerusalem or the West Bank, leading to a more widespread Israeli response and greater instability. Lastly, Israel could achieve its first two objectives with the minimal amount of force necessary, foregoing usual heavy-handed tactics and reducing chances of escalation. But this is unlikely. And even if this occurred, the underlying causes that led to this latest outbreak of violence, and the enabling role Iran plays in that process, have not been addressed. And when the next round of Israeli-Palestinian violence occurs – and it will – I believe Iran’s leaders will again congratulate themselves for a job well done. Aaron Pilkington, PhD Candidate at Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The best post I’ve seen. Kerry was a seriously good diplomat. The Muslim world is so divided. Sunni and Shia’s have no love for each other and the simple truth is that they all now see the Palestinian’s as an inconvenience. Nobody actually gives a sh1te about them and as posted above, several countries are moving on. Iran needs to remain relevant and funds extremism in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Israel (Hamas) and Syria (Assad). They are too clever to be caught with their finger in the pie but they’re behind it.
And Iran haven't spent the $6bn either. There's more than enough evidence to prove Wootton is a pervert. Seems to be a common trait for right wing weirdos.
Politics aside, I can't help but feel for the innocent kids, people in general who have been either wiped out or forever affected by these shocking actions by the few. Absolutely disgraceful.
It always amuses me when left-wing supporters claim the moral high ground on sexual offences. I suggest before you try and point score, Tobes, you do some research on Nazir Ahmed (attempted rape of a young girl and buggering a boy), Paul Clark (indecent images of children), Geraint Davies (serious sexual predator), Keith Vaz (drugs and rent boys), Eric Joyce (child abuse images). Oh, and by the way, where is Nick Brown? Any ideas?
dont like it dont celebrate it go in to work that day leave the rest of us alone to eat and drink too much please log in to view this image looking at this lot i dont think any of them ever missed a christmas dinner i know you would uber
The more details that emerge about the Hamas attack, beheading babies etc, it's clear that Gaza is going to be levelled. This, of course, will result in thousands of innocent lives lost there too. Hamas and their backers have unleashed hell onto the region with the explicit aim of ensuring there is no peace for either side, probably for the next 50 years as both sides harden their attitudes and are further radicalised. This could also escalate across the middle east.
It makes you wonder what their logic was, if at all. As if Israel wasn't going to retaliate? They are surrounded! Then again, anyone who thought is ok to kill babies & people in general really are screwed in the head and there is no logic with that type of animal. As l mentioned before, with all this happening, China's mindset on Taiwan could be trigged. China needs America at their weakest when considering taking on Taiwan. No time like the current time it would seem. Hope l'm wrong of course.
I think the goal is to encourage as much violence and destruction on their own people as possible to lead to as many terrorist attacks worldwide as possible. There’s no peaceful end game for Hamas. You could give them control of 99% of Israel and they’d push for the 1%. They’d happily see every Palestinian burn in return for a few big terrorist attacks in the US and Europe.
Well UKIP have promised a floating wall when they get in and it feels silly no one has thought of that before.
In lighter news the prisons are now officially full so the bloke who burgled your house or raped your friend probably won’t be in a cell any time soon. Party of law and order…
Netanyahu is hell bent on destroying Hamas, but for every member he actually manages to get he will probably have to murder 100+ innocent civilians to do it, but do God's chosen people really care about Arab lives ? This will backfire of course because every new bomb dropped on innocents in Gaza will increase recruitment for Hamas, and other groups, a hundred times over. Of course every one of these bombs has ''made and paid for in Washington'' written all over it. We have emboldened this regime of Apartheid for about 70 years and are, thus, incriminated in everything it does - how much longer do we want to do that ?
As long as it takes and it’s unnecessary hyperbole to call it apartheid. The antidote to Hamas i.e. storming in there and wiping them plus a million civilians out creates a much bigger global problem than doing nothing but the other option is sitting back and letting Hamas take the piss more and more forever at the expense of Israeli lives. And yeah there are plenty of Arabs living very happily and peacefully in Israel which overall is a pretty liberal and tolerant place.
You seem far more worked up about the actions of Israel than you are about the beheading of Israeli babies etc. Hamas don't want peace and neither do Iran. They want the destruction of Israel and nothing less. There was a growing opposition to the right wing government in Israel among their own people and many of those Israelis massacred at the music peace festival were there wanting to help Palestinians. Hamas and their associates can't stomach any of that and so decided to cause this ensuing carnage. They have purposely brought this upon the Palestinians, no one else.
Biden clearly got over emotional with his speech and the Israeli’s took it as a green light to invade Gaza. Cue Blinken's dash to Israel to tone down the rhetoric but clearly Netanyahu told him its non negotiable - they will go in. Now the Americans have persuaded them to open the Rafah land crossing into Egypt so Palestinian civilians can exit Gaza - the US couldn't condone an all out assault without a civilian safe passage. At the same time the Israelis have bombed Aleppo and Damascus airports to prevent any Syrian(read - Iranian) air support. In South Lebanon Hezzbollah are preparing, some Shia colleagues of mine from South Lebanon cancelled their flights today, its way too risky. The Washington Post is reporting - "U.S. officials and the Qatari government have agreed to stop Iran from accessing a $6 billion account for humanitarian assistance in light of Hamas’s attack on Israel, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told House Democrats on Thursday, according to two people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private remarks." Blinken speaking now trying to pre-justify a land invasion, Netanyahu talking of 'taking the fight to the enemies lands' We are seeing US policy fail big time - Biden is so weak - and the results will reverberate for years afterwards. There is no proportionate response to Hamas terrorism but the US is giving them credibility and playing directly into Irans hands. Iran want a war. Netanyahu is calling this 'an all out war' We can conceivably see conflict on 4 fronts - Gaza, South Lebanon, the Syrian/Golan border and definitely the West Bank where already today the mood is hardening Trump will be watching this and rubbing his hands I genuinely can't believe Biden has chosen this path. Its going to be a horrific next few days
