New Zealand election: Disillusioned voters eyes shift away from the left
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Voting in the general election started on 2 October -
By Frances Mao
BBC News in Auckland
They said hello, smiled and shook hands for the cameras.
Then after New Zealand's prime minister moved on with the press pack, sweeping through the food court in Auckland's city centre, the couple fell back.
"Yeh honestly, we're probably not voting for him," said Ian, who along with his partner Trina is in his 30s.
"There's good and bad in both parties, and I think it's really close," Trina said. "But for us young working professionals, we've got a daughter now and we have to think about her future."
Whether measurably true or not, many New Zealanders believe their country is in the doldrums.
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Chris Hipkins faces an uphill struggle to win enough votes to stay in power
As the nation heads to its first election in three years, that sour mood is signalling a swing away from the diverse, centre-left government that was led by Jacinda Ardern for five years.
The former prime minister, who stepped down in January, lent a star power and brand of "kind" politics to her country which won her fans around the world - even as her popularity waned at home.
Her successor Chris Hipkins has had to face an increasingly irate and fed-up electorate this year, battling the hangover of the pandemic and a suffering economy.
Political scientists says the clearest indicator of public pessimism has been a poll question which, for the first time in years, is now being answered in the negative by most voters: "They feel the country is heading along the wrong track," says Lara Greaves from Wellington's Victoria University.
Speaking to voters in the biggest city Auckland this week, "the economy's cooked" or some variant of that is often the first thing mentioned.
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Freya says many people she knows can't afford to stay at university and have dropped out
"It's recession vibes," said architecture student Freya, 20, who's working two retail jobs to keep up. She counts herself lucky to be able to live with her family in Mount Roskill - but she knows "plenty of people" in her traditionally working-class neighbourhood who dropped out of university to get food on the table.
"No one's really spending, costs are up, the living wage - it's not even a living wage really it's crazy. It's so expensive these days, I feel money just flows out."
Even though New Zealand's is comparable to other developed economies, "people don't really think that [it] is doing better than the rest of the world because they are hurting," said local economist Brad Olsen.
"Households are struggling so that dominates the conversation," he says, citing data by his firm Infometrics, showing households on average are spending NZ$240 ($144; 117) more per week, while food price inflation peaked at a 12% increase this year after severe flooding and Cyclones Hale and Gabrielle.
New Zealand's long-term housing crisis has also punted home ownership beyond reality for the young generation, he says - but those who did buy homes in the past decade are now having to find an extra NZ$30,000 for their mortgage, due to higher interest rates.
In response, both major parties have pledged policies to fatten wallets. Labour says it will cut the 15% tax on fresh fruit and vegetables, while centre-right National is pledging income tax cuts and other measures they say will boost business.
The policies have been questioned by economists but are proving a hit with voters. But few are convinced these will fix the wider problem. New Zealand - a country which once sold itself as on the edge of the world - is at the bottom of a supply chain exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the slowing economy in China, its largest trade partner.
Along with the economic concerns, many locals are also alarmed by a perceived rise in crime and gang violence. Although not significantly reflected in the crime data, stories of "ram raids" - where criminals use a vehicle to smash their way into a store - and burglaries ranging from diamond stores to corner shops, known here as dairies, have filled newspapers and social media feeds this year.
"It used to be really safe here, peaceful," says taxi driver Aman Singh, 29, who moved to New Zealand over a decade ago and has become a citizen. He recalled a burglary assault last week in an Auckland suburb where a dairy owner had his fingers cut off.
Aman plans on moving to Australia at the end of the year - where he was confident there would be more work, and his money could go further.
The exodus of young people and working immigrants to New Zealand's larger, more prosperous neighbour, or even further afield to the UK, is a trend commonly noted.
"A lot of people around me have moved overseas, just because everything feels just quite sluggish here and very slow-moving - the priority doesn't appear to be so much about moving forward," said Antonia Brightwell, 22, outside a voting booth in a shopping centre.
She had also considered the option last year, but decided: "I've assessed the importance of sticking where I am and just dealing with things." She said she strongly favoured parties which would help her family's businesses.
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Antonia's biggest concern was what her future would look like with an economy "currently in the trenches"
"I know that we're still just coming out of what happened with Covid and just trying to get back into that," but the recovery had been too slow, she suggested.
Even Labour voters agree. There has been some frustration that Labour, which in 2020 under Ardern won a rare majority in New Zealand's proportional system which had always produced multi-party governments, wasn't able to accomplish more. Several ministerial scandals this year have also tarnished Labour's image.
"I feel like they haven't really achieved that much, or generated that much money," said Freya, who voted for Labour but criticised the slow rebound in tourism.
New Zealand's stringent Covid response under Jacinda Ardern was globally praised and a scientific report released this week estimated the policy, which included a closure of borders from March 2020-August 2022, had saved 20,000 lives.
But locals were also pushed to their limits with extended restrictions like lockdowns, Prof Greaves said.
It led to a rise in disillusioned and angry New Zealanders, crowds of whom camped on the lawns outside parliament last year.
Those groups have also made their presence known in this year's election. Polls show support for both major parties have ebbed - while there's been a sharp uptick for fringe, anti-establishment parties peddling a nastier tone of political debate.
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Chris Luxon's National Party is is expected to emerge as the largest party, polls suggest
The noisy contender this year has been Act, a libertarian party once banished to political exile with less than 1% of the vote. It has come back to claim up to 10% of voters, according to some polls. National, under leader Chris Luxon, has signalled it would form a coalition government with the party, whose leader has vowed to roll back mining and firearm restrictions, and has attacked Māori representation in the country, prompting an outcry from Māori lawmakers.
Populist party New Zealand First also looks set to return - with current polls suggesting leader Winston Peters will hold the balance of power in Saturday's vote.
In 2017, he sided with Labour, a move which allowed its then new leader Jacinda Ardern to become prime minister. Few expect him to embrace the left again now.
In the event that no coalition deal can be reached then a second election would be needed.
