Daily Racing Thread Friday 2nd. June 2023

[SwanHills]

With a big meet at Epsom, young Marquand takes a trip up to Donny to ride two for his boss.

Thanks for that, Bustino. The one that took my eye though was the booking of Tom Marquand to ride Grey Fox for the Emma Lavelle yard. The gelding should appreciate the drop in trip and the much faster ground than LTO 25-days ago at Windsor.

Just one thing, I hope I have not picked the wrong 'Fox', as I have a bad habit of picking the 'wrong' one of two!

 

[Ron]

It is difficult to know what to make of this year’s Oaks with little reliable trial form and a few that simply look like non stayers.

The first problem with the Lingfield Oaks Trial was that it was run on the polytrack and the second problem was that it really turned into a sprint in the straight as the Appleby second string was forced to set the fractions; and the time was three seconds slower than the subsequent Derby Trial. Appleby’s first string Eternal Hope won it but she has yet to run on turf in three starts and she ran down the Ballydoyle-trained favourite Be Happy in the final furlong. They paid to add Eternal Hope to this Classic but will she get home in a truly run race? Her half brother Rio de la Plata was a non stayer. I have no idea why fifth Bright Diamond is here as in a truly run race she will surely be a non stayer, her American bred sire now standing in Italy.

In the Prix Saint Alary at Longchamp, not usually a trial for the Oaks but the Prix de Diane, David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight was a respectable fourth and she has plenty of stamina on the dam’s side and could run well at a price.

The 1000 Guineas form here is very easily discounted. Fourth at HQ was Caernarfon, ten lengths adrift of the winner, and she has nothing in her pedigree to suggest she will stay: her unraced dam was by sprinter Royal Applause. The other entry from the Guineas was Dance In The Grass, who has defected at the declaration stage despite obviously having the stamina for this in her pedigree.

Once raced maiden Maman Joon should welcome this step up in trip and I remember her dam winning the Pretty Polly but 50/1 is too short for Richard Hannon’s charge to perform a miracle.

Red Riding Hood lost her maiden tag at the seventh attempt at Dundalk on the kitty litter and was run out of a ten furlong Group 3 when last seen. Her dam was a runner up in the 1000 Guineas and her sister won the Irish 1000 Guineas but there is no evidence that she will stay this far.

Running Lion won the Pretty Polly with something to spare and has sufficient stamina on the dam’s side to suggest the extra two furlongs are within her range although her sire probably did not quite get home when third in the Derby. She is no forlorn hope for a fifth consecutive win from six career starts if easy ground is not a must have, which perhaps explains her odds shortening this week.

Savethelastdance has not raced on anything but easy ground and it is very easy to knock her demolition job in the Cheshire Oaks against moderate opposition. Can she give Galileo another Oaks winner? It is quite possible but at the available odds she is a mug’s bet. Anyone remember Santa Barbara two years ago?

Sea Of Roses started 2023 with a fair second at Saint Cloud (Be Happy third) and her pedigree looks fine for the mile and a half with stamina on both sides; however, she was well and truly put in her place in the Musidora at York, won easily by Soul Sister, showing her no show in the Fred Darling (remote last, eased down) to be a blip. Lady Bamford’s filly comes from a good staying family and bids to give her owner and Frankel a second Oaks winner.

Soul Sister looked my idea of the winner with victory at York but in a virtually three horse book I will just watch at 9/4.

You may well be right about Bright Diamond QM. One has to go back a way to find anything on the sire side, although some very good 10f horses plus Nijinsky. But on the dam side, we go back to Dr Devious, Sadlers Wells, Northern Dancer, Troy, Alleged (and therefore, Ribot). So there is a glimmer of hope on pedigree. My point was that, as she ran further than Eternal Hope and finished well, should she be over 4 times the price? Anyway, I couldn't argue her chances are great but I think I can see why she has been left in, given that Eternal Hope has been supplemented. Maybe left in in eternal hope

If Savethelastdance wins easily, she could be the new fav for the Arc

 

[QuarterMoonII]

A select field of five face the starter for the Coronation Cup and there is little separating the four British/Irish contenders and clearly the German St Leger winner will be the outsider of the quintet.

On the ratings, the 3lb allowance will make Emily Upjohn difficult to beat if a lack of race fitness is not too much of an issue. She ought to avoid the traffic trouble that she had in the Oaks last term when just beaten and handling the track is obviously not an issue.

Irish Derby winner Westover should have been second in the Derby but he perhaps did not like the course as much as others and got going too late having created his own traffic trouble. So I would not be too confident about him back here. He was put in his place by wonder horse Equinox at Meydan and returns from a two month layoff today.

As a two year old Point Lonsdale had a big reputation and won the Chesham and the Irish Futurity but was hammered by Native Trail in the National Stakes. He was only seen running down the field in the Guineas as a three year old and has returned as a four year old with two wins on soft ground, beating Layfayette more than 8 lengths third at The Curragh but less than 2 lengths in front of the same rival at Chester. This is his first attempt beyond ten furlongs so he could prove to be a revelation; however, he is a short price for one unknown at the trip or on the track and his only win on quick ground was a five runner Group 3 where he was 1/8.

Race fit following a six length victory in the Jockey Club Stakes, 2021 St Leger and Irish Derby winner HURRICANE LANE was placed in that year’s Derby behind his stablemate and appears to have been rejuvenated by the fitting of cheekpieces. He could be hard to beat today as I suspect that Buick may try to make the running. He does not want to leave it to Frankie on Emily Upjohn or Rob Hornby on Westover as a sprint in the straight would not play to his stamina.

 

[QuarterMoonII]

You may well be right about Bright Diamond QM. One has to go back a way to find anything on the sire side, although some very good 10f horses plus Nijinsky. But on the dam side, we go back to Dr Devious, Sadlers Wells, Northern Dancer, Troy, Alleged (and therefore, Ribot). So there is a glimmer of hope on pedigree. My point was that, as she ran further than Eternal Hope and finished well, should she be over 4 times the price? Anyway, I couldn't argue her chances are great but I think I can see why she has been left in, given that Eternal Hope has been supplemented. Maybe left in in eternal hope

If Savethelastdance wins easily, she could be the new fav for the Arc

Generally speaking, Ron, I do not go looking back three or four generations for evidence of stamina. If there is no obvious evidence of stamina in the dam, granddam or associated families coupled with no obvious signs of stamina of the sire’s side then I am going to only go with the evidence that has been seen on the racetrack.

So if I see a horse running over ten furlongs in a style that suggests that they would be able to go further then I am more likely to take that as evidence.

I hope that Bright Diamond runs a good race for her connections but there is no actual racecourse evidence that she will stay the trip in a truly run race and she has a lot of ground to make up on the first two from Lingfield.

If any filly wins easily today then it will automatically be favourite for the Arc as we know that recent history tells us of the great record of Classic generation fillies.

 

[Ron]

Generally speaking, Ron, I do not go looking back three or four generations for evidence of stamina. If there is no obvious evidence of stamina in the dam, granddam or associated families coupled with no obvious signs of stamina of the sire’s side then I am going to only go with the evidence that has been seen on the racetrack.

So if I see a horse running over ten furlongs in a style that suggests that they would be able to go further then I am more likely to take that as evidence.

I hope that Bright Diamond runs a good race for her connections but there is no actual racecourse evidence that she will stay the trip in a truly run race and she has a lot of ground to make up on the first two from Lingfield.

If any filly wins easily today then it will automatically be favourite for the Arc as we know that recent history tells us of the great record of Classic generation fillies.

I'm in danger of arguing she has a good chance, which I can't do with any confidence, of course. But I don't think 2¾l is a lot of ground to make up on the winner, given she took a longer route and was caught out by the sudden change of pace over 1f out but was running on in the last 110yds. I'm not sure that any of them have shown any evidence of staying 12f, let alone in a truly run race on a sound surface

I can just see BD being tailed off last now

 

[Ron]

The only Oaks winner I have ever fancied for the Arc as early as June (proofed this forum) was Enable at 20/1. It was pointed out to me at the time that Oaks winners had a poor record in the Arc (never won it as I recall being stated). But I fancied her on the basis that I considered her better than that year's Derby winner, and Derby winners did OK in the Arc. So, this year, again, I will only fancy the Oaks winner for the Arc if I consider her to be better than the Derby winner and even then, it will have to have clocked a good time and have won with something in hand. Currently I am favouring the 4yos so I will be looking at the time of the Coronation as well

 

[gillamandango]

Good luck, hope the ground doesn't get like a road by 8pm.

As the shrewdies amongst us have spotted Raleagh Flora runs at Stratford tomorrow in the restricted race. He had two entries and we’ve agonised all week which race to run in. We really thought we could win the novices race but on paper the restricted looks easier. In fact I’d go as far to say we are a shoe in. We are top weight but Charlie claims 7lb to Captain Biggles so we’re 4lb in. If you could find it online check out Rockys demolition of a good restricted field at Godstone. Our trainers been in this game a long time and told me after the race that I wouldn’t see a more comprehensive victory on a point in field in this country. I’d give penniless another go in the bumper. The previous race at Aintree was messy and the horse clipped heels and the jockey nursed it home.
Cheers.

 

[Ron]

Nice compensation for Emily after last year's Oaks misfortune

 

[You See]

I was quite impressed with popworlds first two runs and having got 12s on the top weight ew i am looking forward to watching. (First at Don)

 

[Ron]

The only Oaks winner I have ever fancied for the Arc as early as June (proofed this forum) was Enable at 20/1. It was pointed out to me at the time that Oaks winners had a poor record in the Arc (never won it as I recall being stated). But I fancied her on the basis that I considered her better than that year's Derby winner, and Derby winners did OK in the Arc. So, this year, again, I will only fancy the Oaks winner for the Arc if I consider her to be better than the Derby winner and even then, it will have to have clocked a good time and have won with something in hand. Currently I am favouring the 4yos so I will be looking at the time of the Coronation as well

Bearing in mind how she won, that looks like an impressive time; and she will come on for the run

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[Bustino74]

Interesting to see Savethelastdance. She is a big girl and you wouldn't nominate Epsom as the course she'll be best on. Also she won her trial at Chester in heavy ground and everyone then ticks the stamina box. But she may be brilliant on soft ground and just like the rest of the pack on good to firm. It's a fallacy to think because they win on soft or heavy ground they must have stamina. It was a painfully slow race on the Roodye.

She'll probably win by 10 lengths but I still prefer Soul Sister. .

 

[SwanHills]

A very interesting renewal of the Oaks which seems to centre around ridiculous Chester winner Savethelastdance and the Gosden pair. I'm going out on a limb here and saying that Savethelastdance will not win. She has a very high knee action and I cannot imagine she will go on the predicted good/good-firm in places. At close to evens she is "lay all day" material. Running Lion won the Pretty Polly Stakes in convincing fashion but the 2nd has let the form down badly since and preference is for Soul Sister. She will relish the ground as she recovered from a total no-show in the Fred Darling (soft) to record a convincing victory in the Musidora (gd/gd-fm in places). Whilst she won't make you rich, she would be a popular winner for Frankel and Frankie.

Well done, Oddy, and all those who picked Soul Sister. A very classy filly.

 

[OddDog]

She did that very well. Like to see her take on the colts in the King George - that will tell us if she is an Arc horse.

 

[floridaspearl]

My attention will be elsewhere but I’m gonna have a couple of quid ew on Maman Joon in the oaks. I like the breeding a second first time out on heavy then put away.

Place money @50/1

 

[Ron]

You were right QM; she didn't last home but she ran a great race for a 66/1 shot. I was right on one thing; she was better value than Eternal Hope

Frankie and Frankel romp home

 

[Ron]

She did that very well. Like to see her take on the colts in the King George - that will tell us if she is an Arc horse.

Yes, she did that very well Oddy; but not well enough for me to win the Arc. I can think of a few I would rather be on

 

[SwanHills]

You were right QM; she didn't last home but she ran a great race for a 66/1 shot. I was right on one thing; she was better value than Eternal Hope

It hurts, but she was indeed hopeless. Really thought she'd run better than that dismal performance.

 

[Bustino74]

Interesting to see Savethelastdance. She is a big girl and you wouldn't nominate Epsom as the course she'll be best on. Also she won her trial at Chester in heavy ground and everyone then ticks the stamina box. But she may be brilliant on soft ground and just like the rest of the pack on good to firm. It's a fallacy to think because they win on soft or heavy ground they must have stamina. It was a painfully slow race on the Roodye.

She'll probably win by 10 lengths but I still prefer Soul Sister. .

Savethelastdance probably stayed OK but was a bit one-paced.

 

[Ron]

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So, the Coronation was 2.63 secs faster than the Oaks. On that ground, that is equal to 15.78, lengths which equates to 23.67 pounds. In the Arc a 3yo filly gets 7lb from a 4yo filly. Theoretically, if my calculations are correct, Soul Sister has no chance against Emily Upjohn. I haven't taken account of the fact Soul Sister was carrying 3lb more than Emily Upjohn today, which obviously brings the 2 a bit closer together. I'm going to verify that calculation by coming from a different angle as that does seem a bit drastic. After I have seen to my own horses

 

[Bustino74]

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So, the Coronation was 2.63 secs faster than the Oaks. On that ground, that is equal to 15.78, lengths which equates to 23.67 pounds. In the Arc a 3yo filly gets 7lb from a 4yo filly. Theoretically, if my calculations are correct, Soul Sister has no chance against Emily Upjohn. I haven't taken account of the fact Soul Sister was carrying 3lb more than Emily Upjohn today, which obviously brings the 2 a bit closer together. I'm going to verify that calculation by coming from a different angle as that does seem a bit drastic. After I have seen to my own horses

But today Emily Upjohn would have to give her 11- 12lb and it's todays performances and weights you have to consider. 3yos under the wfa adjustments are expected to improve more than a 4yo during a season. So there's only 4-5lb between them. Still a lot, but who will improve more?.