It is difficult to know what to make of this year’s Oaks with little reliable trial form and a few that simply look like non stayers.
The first problem with the Lingfield Oaks Trial was that it was run on the polytrack and the second problem was that it really turned into a sprint in the straight as the Appleby second string was forced to set the fractions; and the time was three seconds slower than the subsequent Derby Trial. Appleby’s first string Eternal Hope won it but she has yet to run on turf in three starts and she ran down the Ballydoyle-trained favourite Be Happy in the final furlong. They paid to add Eternal Hope to this Classic but will she get home in a truly run race? Her half brother Rio de la Plata was a non stayer. I have no idea why fifth Bright Diamond is here as in a truly run race she will surely be a non stayer, her American bred sire now standing in Italy.
In the Prix Saint Alary at Longchamp, not usually a trial for the Oaks but the Prix de Diane, David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight was a respectable fourth and she has plenty of stamina on the dam’s side and could run well at a price.
The 1000 Guineas form here is very easily discounted. Fourth at HQ was Caernarfon, ten lengths adrift of the winner, and she has nothing in her pedigree to suggest she will stay: her unraced dam was by sprinter Royal Applause. The other entry from the Guineas was Dance In The Grass, who has defected at the declaration stage despite obviously having the stamina for this in her pedigree.
Once raced maiden Maman Joon should welcome this step up in trip and I remember her dam winning the Pretty Polly but 50/1 is too short for Richard Hannon’s charge to perform a miracle.
Red Riding Hood lost her maiden tag at the seventh attempt at Dundalk on the kitty litter and was run out of a ten furlong Group 3 when last seen. Her dam was a runner up in the 1000 Guineas and her sister won the Irish 1000 Guineas but there is no evidence that she will stay this far.
Running Lion won the Pretty Polly with something to spare and has sufficient stamina on the dam’s side to suggest the extra two furlongs are within her range although her sire probably did not quite get home when third in the Derby. She is no forlorn hope for a fifth consecutive win from six career starts if easy ground is not a must have, which perhaps explains her odds shortening this week.
Savethelastdance has not raced on anything but easy ground and it is very easy to knock her demolition job in the Cheshire Oaks against moderate opposition. Can she give Galileo another Oaks winner? It is quite possible but at the available odds she is a mug’s bet. Anyone remember Santa Barbara two years ago?
Sea Of Roses started 2023 with a fair second at Saint Cloud (Be Happy third) and her pedigree looks fine for the mile and a half with stamina on both sides; however, she was well and truly put in her place in the Musidora at York, won easily by Soul Sister, showing her no show in the Fred Darling (remote last, eased down) to be a blip. Lady Bamford’s filly comes from a good staying family and bids to give her owner and Frankel a second Oaks winner.
Soul Sister looked my idea of the winner with victory at York but in a virtually three horse book I will just watch at 9/4.
