Piece in the Athletic on expected goals for & against - Saints and Spurs currently big over achievers:
https://theathletic.com/2244376/202...-in-false-position?source=user-shared-article
Here is the bit on Saints:
"
Southampton’s dip in form was overdue
Southampton’s brief stint at the top of the Premier League was heartwarming in an enjoyably unpredictable first few weeks of the campaign, but their form has been less impressive in recent weeks – with a draw to Wolves, a 3-2 loss against Manchester United and then a narrow 2-1 win over Brighton on Monday, courtesy of a hugely controversial late penalty award.
They are, by a distance, the Premier League’s biggest overachievers in terms of xG going forward, thanks largely to some brilliant finishing from Danny Ings and James Ward-Prowse’s ability to defy the xG’s interpretation of danger at free-kick situations. Saints’ 4-3 victory at Aston Villa, with Ings’ scorching strike and two classic Ward-Prowse free kicks, tells the story concisely.
That said, Southampton have conceded 17 goals from only 13.9xGA — so perhaps their defensive record will improve."
I normally rate the Athletic, but to suggest a point away at Wolves, losing to United and beating brighton away is less than impressive is just wrong. Maybe that is a sign of how far we have come though?