Coronavirus
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Overall minus a 5 year average !
We haven't had any large flu deaths this year so the figures would be pretty sedimentary
I said that deaths were going down as Coronavirus when that might not have been the main cause of death. I never said that was specific to care homes.
The figures will all be different this year. I’d imagine RTA deaths will be way down and suicide will probably go up quite a bit. Not so sure it will be that easy.
Subtracting the excess deaths from a five year average would be a nearer figure than expelling care home deaths .
Without looking at the stats, what If say the last 3 year deaths have spiked or rapidly declined. That will probably need to be taken more into consideration that just an average.
There seems to be some ****ing idiots still driving like idiots !
Let's dispel RTAs
That sounds pretty standard. People will put off seeing a GP for something they would have done a couple of months ago that will become serious. I’m guessing it’s had an impact on chemo. People who have a heart attack won’t quite get an ambulance in time. Loads of secondary deaths that aren’t CV will push the death rate up and a few things will help push it down too.
You could take a median figure instead if that would help.
I agree, which is why you never see me speculating on figures being hidden or massaged.
Because i have no idea of the truth i will wait until actual final figures are produced.
He’d have a different attitude if it had been the Jimmy Saville protector in ICU.
So publishing correct deaths from Covid 19 would be a better way of not having this confusion ?
100% honesty so we can learn for a second wave ???
I agree but then I’m not trying to defend anyone who might need defending.
We can't compare Coronavirus to other flu's as major measures have been taken to reduce the numbers. It's like saying we don't need to wear a seatbelt any more as I've crashed twice whilst wearing one and haven't died yet.
We'll thankfully never know what the numbers would have been like had no measures been taken but the vast majority of people who are qualified enough to give an educated opinion about it (so lets ignore all politicians and media as all they can do is chose which expert opinion to repeat - not being cynical just factual) say it's much worse than normal flu's as it spreads easier and has a higher death rate.
As for official figures, the people who have been attributed as "dying" of Covid19 are (unless I'm mistaken and it does happen!) people who have had it as their primary or secondary cause of death on their death certificates. If anything the numbers are likely to be too low as people who are mostly asymptomatic will not be tested for it even if they die of it (or of something else which it is exacerbated)
We'll thankfully never know what the numbers would have been like had no measures been taken but the vast majority of people who are qualified enough to give an educated opinion about it (so lets ignore all politicians and media as all they can do is chose which expert opinion to repeat - not being cynical just factual) say it's much worse than normal flu's as it spreads easier and has a higher death rate.
As for official figures, the people who have been attributed as "dying" of Covid19 are (unless I'm mistaken and it does happen!) people who have had it as their primary or secondary cause of death on their death certificates. If anything the numbers are likely to be too low as people who are mostly asymptomatic will not be tested for it even if they die of it (or of something else which it is exacerbated)
That's where the whole thing gets ****ed up. It's very hard to attribute death to COVID19 if the person who died was already one step from it with another ailment.
True but imo if ever there was a time to learn from mistakes it's now.
Unless we want to just continue down the same road .
We may not get a true figure but after the event hopefully we can get somewhere near !
There are genuine concerns that people may have, for instance, a child who develops flu-like symptoms and a non-blanching rash (likely meningitis) but NOT take them to hospital as they self-isolate instead assuming it is Covid19. Even delays in situations like that costs lives. Is it happening? That sort of thing would usually make the papers but isn't going to at the moment and would muddy the waters over the general advice of "isolate" so isn't a message that is going to be pushed out.
Unfortunately the government has to treat the populace as if it is stupid and keep messages very simple. Exceptions and caveats are too complicated.
Like you said earlier, the closest gauge will be an average comparison with previous years.
Even then we are only comparing the people who died given the number of measures that were taken to combat Covid19. We'll hopefully never have a true measure of how bad Covid19 actually is.
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