In a way you've answered both questions, the antibody test will be the big game-changer. Testing alone is just a window in the timeline and only significant if it's negative in relation to how you behave afterwards...
I don’t think it’s a deliberate manipulation of the ‘books’ per se, Bob, I think it’s just a combination of laziness and the frontline workload. The figures are being qualified as they’re being reported, so I’m not aware that they’re being published under false pretences.
Stan we are nearly there now. 10,000 hospital deaths, and so many deaths in home and care home system, guestimate 5,000. And we have possibly just reaching or peak....so another couple of weeks before we show a good decline from 700-900 deaths in hospitals a day. We are looking at what you would call a "failure"
I wish I had your confidence Ubes. It's not difficult to add some numbers up. Is it because the figure would be a hell of a lot closer to the government's expert death rate guess? Beth just said it for me.
The figures will never be accurate especially as there are no post-mortems but our total lack of a coherent strategy in dealing with this situation is frankly embarrassing...
Absolutely embarrassing. Despite not knowing when the end game is (and that's totally understandable) we need a coherent plan of how society will, albeit, slowly exit this so called lockdown.
There’s a strategy. You and Keir Starmer aren’t allowed to know what it is though. But there is one. And Labour haven’t even said what their exit strategy would have been yet so really it’s Corbyn’s fault and perhaps Meghan Markle’s.
Like Beth said, we are probably nearer to 20,000 than further away. The government couldn't allow that figure published as they would be worried that their expert advice that they follow isn't all that expertised.
I’ve changed my mind a bit since that post (it’s a fast moving environment!). It’s not for me to judge what is a ‘bad’ number, but I think the government advisors, like Vallance, should be clearer on this so we can assess the strategy. The deaths per million measure is still ok but subject to squabbling about how different countries record their deaths.
Just look at the graph they produce for transport use! That will defeat the virus no problem. The top scientific minds in the country came up with that!
Here's a thought, maybe just maybe things arent as bad as we think and it's just been Priti Patel adding the deaths up! Fingers crossed.
Theres a rumour, not sure how true, that even bats are flying around with face masks in China. Make of that what you will
Not sure I can fully answer this but will try a bit. 1. The people they are trying to test in this way (with the viral antigen test) , is the front line worker, who comes in contact with a Covid19 person and then feels a "bit iffy" then self isolates for a week, taking them off the work force. They can be tested and told " you are positive you are off work for 2 weeks.. or negative:- get back to work". This also works for relatives of known Covid19 people, like 999s. It is very useful, but means frontline workers will need to be tested regularly, as any teperature or cough or super-tiredness may mean CoVid19 ...or it may not. 2. There is a tenet that if you have a viral infection and then naturally recover, the reason is that you have made antibodies to quell that infection. That is the reason you have got better. So the next time you get splattered by CoVid19 by someone , your antibodies rush to attack the virus before they multiple and you do not get sick again. It is the basis of vaccination (sort of natural vaccination). There are rumours from China that some people who have had it once are getting it a second time, which ruins the theory....a little bit. But there are reasons 1) They may not have had CoVid in the first place 2) even with vaccinations (such as flu) the protection in a few people is incomplete and some people get a mild dose. It is becoming clearer and clearer to me, that we have to have the antibody test and contact tracing ( possibly through the apps that are working already in S.Korea, Japan and Germany...by the way ...why do we need to develop our own? ) as soon as possible. Then we need to have a vaccine in place by the start of next year.
