Off Topic SARS-CoV-2 Covid-19

[originallambrettaman]

Italy has a higher percentage of cases that lead to fatality and is more concentrated to specific areas, meaning their health services are overwhelmed and actual figures can be misleading.

Hopefully, that's the case and we'll see the gap widen in that chart, but unless thousands stop carrying on going to work, we'll probably catch up again.

 

[DMD]

https://datacat.cc/covid/ You can play with the options.

 

[originallambrettaman]

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[DMD]

Hopefully, that's the case and we'll see the gap widen in that chart, but unless thousands stop carrying on going to work, we'll probably catch up again.

Italy's not really a good comparitor for a variety of reasons. There are also concerns that lock downs can create second and third waves that can be more severe than the 1st. Plus the mental health and financial issues.

It's all iffs and buts, and the 'right' answer may never be known. I don't think the graphs help in keeping a sense of measured calm.

 

[TheCasual]

I work at Magistrates Court, maintenance. But I've told I have to go in.

Both my parents are in the high risk group.

 

[O'l Gravy Leg]

I was concerned by the Medical Corespondent on the BBC making comparison between Italy and the UK, he stated that we are about 2 weeks behind Italy and that 233 deaths was significant as it showed that we are on the same rate of deaths as Italy, just 2 weeks behind. This did not sound right, so I have done a simple excel spreadsheet chart that covers a 20 day period of reported deaths. The start point was from the first reported deaths.

After 20 days from the first death Italy had 1016 deaths
The UK has had 335

Its not scientific just the daily numbers published. As a country we are way behind both Italy at the moment.

At the very start we saw the charts with a steep rise and the object of flattening the curve out. I think our rate of increased in deaths is slower than Italy's.

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I would be concerned too, the chap was a clown who's uninformed goboffery will only scare people.

Italy is very different for very real reasons and any comparison of data would require normalisation for the facts that Northern Italy has a strong Chinese immigrant population, and direct flights from Wuhan. Leather and textiles industry in Northern Italy is manned by Chinese more than not now starting in the 90s.

Italy also has the world's second oldest population
Italy also has more 3 or 4 generation households than the rest of Europe.
Italy was infected before we even knew there was an issue, probably immediately after it appeared in China.
Florence Mayor's hug a Chinese campaign (that was taken on by people in many places including Milan), at the start of Feb probably didn't help

Italy was almost immediately overwhelmed because the spread went on undetected as the Chinese covered it up in December

 

[Chazz Rheinhold]

I work at Magistrates Court, maintenance. But I've told I have to go in.

Both my parents are in the high risk group.

And I think you should go in
It might not seem important but you know what when you’re country called you answered!
Do the right thing. That feeling is irreplaceable

I’m sure you can sort something out regarding your mam and dad
Unless you live with them then it’s difficult

 

[TheCasual]

And I think you should go in
It might not seem important but you know what when you’re country called you answered!
Do the right thing. That feeling is irreplaceable

I’m sure you can sort something out regarding your mam and dad
Unless you live with them then it’s difficult

I live with them. They both have copd and my dad has had half a lung removed.

 

[Chazz Rheinhold]

I live with them. They both have copd and my dad has had half a lung removed.

Then your exempt unless you can live elsewhere

 

[City Man]

I would be concerned too, the chap was a clown who's uninformed goboffery will only scare people.

Italy is very different for very real reasons and any comparison of data would require normalisation for the facts that Northern Italy has a strong Chinese immigrant population, and direct flights from Wuhan. Leather and textiles industry in Northern Italy is manned by Chinese more than not now starting in the 90s.

Italy also has the world's second oldest population
Italy also has more 3 or 4 generation households than the rest of Europe.
Italy was infected before we even knew there was an issue, probably immediately after it appeared in China.
Florence Mayor's hug a Chinese campaign (that was taken on by people in many places including Milan), at the start of Feb probably didn't help

Italy was almost immediately overwhelmed because the spread went on undetected as the Chinese covered it up in December

Very little leather/textiles in Lombardy. 20,000 chinese out of total pop of 10 million.

Leather is in Prato, Tuscany where there are 60,000 chinese. Vicenza in the Veneto is a massive leather place also.

Like Prato, Vicenza doesn't seem to be an epicentre. The 'facts' just don't stack up.

Fake news.

 

[originallambrettaman]

"Sports Direct has hiked prices of some sports equipment, including skipping ropes, weights and resistance belts, by more than 50%, according to documents seen by the PA news agency."

 

[FLG]

"Sports Direct has hiked prices of some sports equipment, including skipping ropes, weights and resistance belts, by more than 50%, according to documents seen by the PA news agency."

I'm doing a lot of gardening and need some broken crocks for the planters to provide drainage. I have just found a couple of theose big sports direct mugs and made best use of them.

 

[The B&S Fanclub]

Have a look on EarthCam. Times Square in NYC is totally deserted at 10:19 in the morning. Nothing ever seen it like this....Incredible.

 

[spesupersydera]

Just read an illuminating stat from the WHO - from the first reported case to the first 1000 cases, they came in 67 days, the second thousand came 11 days later, reaching 3000 cases just 4 days later; that's a staggering acceleration. Apologies if I've missed this being posted previously.

 

[The Omega Man]

You've worked it out wrong, there's almost no difference between the daily death rate in Italy and the UK, since the first respective death was reported in each country (it hasn't yet actually been twenty days since our first death).

First Italian No First UK
23/02/2020 1 05/03/2020 1
24/02/2020 2 06/03/2020 2
25/02/2020 3 07/03/2020 2
26/02/2020 7 08/03/2020 3
27/02/2020 11 09/03/2020 3
28/02/2020 12 10/03/2020 6
29/02/2020 17 11/03/2020 8
01/03/2020 21 12/03/2020 10
02/03/2020 29 13/03/2020 11
03/03/2020 41 14/03/2020 21
04/03/2020 79 15/03/2020 35
05/03/2020 107 16/03/2020 55
06/03/2020 148 17/03/2020 71
07/03/2020 197 18/03/2020 104
08/03/2020 233 19/03/2020 144
09/03/2020 366 20/03/2020 177
10/03/2020 463 21/03/2020 233
11/03/2020 631 22/03/2020 281
12/03/2020 827 23/03/2020 309
13/03/2020 1016 24/03/2020 335

 

[originallambrettaman]

First Italian No First UK
23/02/2020 1 05/03/2020 1
24/02/2020 2 06/03/2020 2
25/02/2020 3 07/03/2020 2
26/02/2020 7 08/03/2020 3
27/02/2020 11 09/03/2020 3
28/02/2020 12 10/03/2020 6
29/02/2020 17 11/03/2020 8
01/03/2020 21 12/03/2020 10
02/03/2020 29 13/03/2020 11
03/03/2020 41 14/03/2020 21
04/03/2020 79 15/03/2020 35
05/03/2020 107 16/03/2020 55
06/03/2020 148 17/03/2020 71
07/03/2020 197 18/03/2020 104
08/03/2020 233 19/03/2020 144
09/03/2020 366 20/03/2020 177
10/03/2020 463 21/03/2020 233
11/03/2020 631 22/03/2020 281
12/03/2020 827 23/03/2020 309
13/03/2020 1016 24/03/2020 335

If the next few days go 460, 630, 820 and 1010, then we're roughly following them, if it goes slower (which hopefully it will), then it stops being an indicator for what we've got coming (it's not following them as much as I thought it was).

 

[originallambrettaman]

The Olympics is off, probably just until 2021.

 

[The B&S Fanclub]

I was concerned by the Medical Corespondent on the BBC making comparison between Italy and the UK,

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Does Italy have a higher percentage of people over 70 years of age compared to the UK. Anyone know. Considering Italy has (some say) a better health system than the UKs our number of those passing away may exceed theirs.

 

[GlassHalfHull]

East Mids news last night said local numbers have been amended to include Nottingham's first death on 3rd March, which is probably the first in the UK. Suggests this had been an undiagnosed case.

 

[originallambrettaman]

'We are buying millions of coronavirus tests' Matt Hancock