Cheltenham 2019 Ante Post Thread
- Thread starter the don
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Nicholls told the owner to run Frodon in the Ryanair and the owner wisely took the advice.
Elegant Escape was beaten a long way in the Gold Cup as Nass said and had such a hard race that he misses the Grand National because of it. Prior to being second to Frodon, Elegant Escape had been rated 159 for winning the Welsh National and I reckon Tizzard would have been better trying to get him in the Grand National off as low a figure as possible, rather than trying the Gold Cup via his run behind Frodon that saw his mark raised. As low as 14/1 for the National the horse is now out of it and that looks like a balls-up to my eyes. Tizzard said the horse is absolutely fine and that his his Gold Cup run was a "Cracking trial" for Aintree. Err? Colin, he misses the race mate, what's cracking about that?
Unless you like backing non-runners ante-post I would be avoiding Frodon for the Gold Cup. Cyrname is another who is a shocking price given that he's never won beyond 2 mile 5F and was immediately ruled out of the Festival this year due to the track confirmation. It's not hard to see why so many Novices are to the fore in the betting for next year's Gold Cup.
Elegant Escape was beaten a long way in the Gold Cup as Nass said and had such a hard race that he misses the Grand National because of it. Prior to being second to Frodon, Elegant Escape had been rated 159 for winning the Welsh National and I reckon Tizzard would have been better trying to get him in the Grand National off as low a figure as possible, rather than trying the Gold Cup via his run behind Frodon that saw his mark raised. As low as 14/1 for the National the horse is now out of it and that looks like a balls-up to my eyes. Tizzard said the horse is absolutely fine and that his his Gold Cup run was a "Cracking trial" for Aintree. Err? Colin, he misses the race mate, what's cracking about that?
Unless you like backing non-runners ante-post I would be avoiding Frodon for the Gold Cup. Cyrname is another who is a shocking price given that he's never won beyond 2 mile 5F and was immediately ruled out of the Festival this year due to the track confirmation. It's not hard to see why so many Novices are to the fore in the betting for next year's Gold Cup.
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Cyrname doesn't go left handed they reckon so I would think he will be Nicholls King George horse and probably try and follow up in the Ascot Chase. It might be interesting if he had his King George prep in the Tingle Creek
Topofthegame is now rated 163 which is 2lbs above Denman's winning mark in his first Hennessy. Might connections be tempted to follow that route rather than chase the million bonus starting at Haydock (given that they'll have others for the King George)?
Frodon's advantage for a possible Gold Cup bid is that he loves Cheltenham (especially the new course) but the time of his win in the Cotswold Chase (20 seconds above standard) doesn't compare well with Al Boum Photo's victory last week (just 2 seconds above standard).
If they go for the bonus they will likely meet Bristol De Mai, who seems rather hard to beat at Haydock in the Betfair Chase. I would go to the Hennessy if he were mine, provided that his mark does not rise before then.
The race that was the Hennessy has lost an awful lot of prestige over the past couple of seasons and you do have to wonder if it is headed in the same direction as the old Whitbread (i.e. downhill very fast). The 2018 renewal saw just 3 horses go to post rated higher than 148! Aside from the GN connections are seemingly, in the main, no longer willing to campaign top quality animals in 3 mile+ staying handicap chases in this Isle. Such a shame as the Newbury heat always was one of the standouts of the term for me. I’d say connections would say that both Santini and Topofthegame were rated too highly to contest the Newbury showpiece.
Re Cheltenham ’20 for me the eyecatchers right now, for me, are Santini (CGC, 12/1) and Dickie Diver, the forum’s 3rd favourite Dickie (33/1, RSA).
Shame I couldn’t get a price on you picking those two on the antepost markets.
Didn't look half bad today at Down Royal. Sadly he was 2nd in the above race after a mixed sort of season.
Thank you very much but I think I don't deserve to create such an important thread, it should be done by someone older than me in the forum and with more success.
Indeed I think like you, this year I think much more complicated early bets, which has not prevented me from having made a few, some too risky and perhaps not many visions of prospering but there is the grace. For the next week I have two others in mind and I am waiting for some markets to be completed in several bookies such as the Foxhunters Chase where I have a horse that I like very much.
Again sorry if there are misspellings, so I dare not write much.
I don't see that myself. If he wins the Betfair he would shorten but can't see him ever being an antepost favourite for the Gold Cup. He just doesn't have that sort of profile.
I see him as being a horse who goes Ryanair for the next couple of seasons and possibly finds one too good if you get an above average renewal. I like Frodon, but I don't think he is near Gold Cup standard.
Neither do I but he'd be competitive in the Ryanair which is a lovely pot to win in itself.
Exactly, and throw in a few other big races where he can miss the key Gold Cup horses and he is going to have plenty of winning to do
Look, if he wins the bet fair his trainer will go for the gold cup. At 33/1 I’m gonna have a nibble ew.
good luck, but I can’t see it at all. That form with Elegant Escape pre festival would make him well short of what’s required and to me the Ryanair was a poor race in comparison to the GC.
what price would you want him turning up in the GC? I’d say it’s highly doubtful let alone winning it.
Also given you can get 7s antepost for the Betfair and 33s for GC
if you think he wins the Betfair a tenner on it to win that returns £80
so unless you think he’s going to get shorter than 5/1 for the GC post race, then the better bet would be back for Betfair then roll onto the GC.
I don’t see how he could go that short given that Al Boum Photo is 8s, Kemboy 13/2 and Lostintranslation a hyped 8s antepost currently.