Off Topic The Boris Johnson Appreciation Thread

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Freddd said:
Fair point that I used emotive language. I should have stopped using football forum idiom when speaking about politics.

That said, the proposal is to negotiate a trade deal with the US when we will have lost our trade deal with our biggest trading partner and when we will have no trade deal giving us access to any major market. We will be in a singularly weak bargaining position. I would be very surprised if the US failed to exploit that weakness to the full. Use a less emotive synonym by all means but the outcome will be one in which they are the dominant, and we are the dominated, party.

With respect to the EU, there are two concepts that must be kept separate: the budget of the EU administration and the economies of the EU countries. We contribute a net £9.5 billion or so annually to the budget of the administration. We will be paying a £39 billion exit fee. Perhaps the lack of our contribution will bite in 4 years or so. Perhaps not.

What I was principally referring to, though, was the effect on national economies. Roughly 45% of our trade is with EU countries. Roughly 8% of the EU countries' trade is with us. The trade both ways will be reduced. if it were reduced by 50% in both directions (a figure picked simply for illustrative purposes) our economy would take a 22.5% hit. Theirs would take a 4% hit. A 4% hit isn't nothing by any means but is minor in comparison to the effect on our economy.

it was, therefore, incorrect of me to say that the EU will be glad to be rid of us. I am sure they will be pleased to be spared the endless spats that Brexit has thrown up. They will, however, not enjoy the moderate downturn in their economies it will cause.
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I don’t in general disagree with the points you’re making. I did vote remain. I just believe for democratic integrity and the need for people to see their vote does mean something and because of the referendum vote that we have to leave regardless of the economic issues that will arise. If we don’t leave what do you say to the voting majority that voted to leave? Why should anyone vote at the next general election?

It’s extremely patronising of a minority to say ignore the majority as we know better. I have no problem with a second referendum but only once we have actioned the result of the first one. If we don’t action it then that will be the first time ever, as far as I am aware, that the UK has failed to honour a vote. That is dangerous ground for any democracy. At the minute politicians are essentially saying to the voting majority that they know better. They have IMO democracy back to front. They are there to serve the people, not tell the people they got it wrong and that they the politicians know better.

I’m not sure that the £39 Billion still stands. I may be wrong but I believe that was on the basis of leaving in March 2019. The budgetary period only runs to 2020. We didn’t leave in March 2019. I would have expected (but don’t know) that we would have been making further contributions as and when these have fallen due since then which would then reduce the amount payable. Also there is some suggestion although I accept this is from the current regime in power that the “legal” amount payable is significantly less and more in the region of about £9 Billion.

Also some EU countries will be hit more than others. Eire for one has an economy more inter linked with the UK than the rest of Europe. Also, using a football analogy, if Man City (UK) had a reduced income of 22,5% the impact on them is much less in real terms than if Bolton (Poland, Greece or Romania) had a 4% reduction in income.

All round it’s not good but the economic affects will be felt by the people and not the politicians (all sides) and it’s the politicians (all sides) who are currently playing politics and not thinking of the people. But then again, what’s new?
 
I am Groot returns said:
I don’t in general disagree with the points you’re making. I did vote remain. I just believe for democratic integrity and the need for people to see their vote does mean something and because of the referendum vote that we have to leave regardless of the economic issues that will arise. If we don’t leave what do you say to the voting majority that voted to leave? Why should anyone vote at the next general election?

It’s extremely patronising of a minority to say ignore the majority as we know better. I have no problem with a second referendum but only once we have actioned the result of the first one. If we don’t action it then that will be the first time ever, as far as I am aware, that the UK has failed to honour a vote. That is dangerous ground for any democracy. At the minute politicians are essentially saying to the voting majority that they know better. They have IMO democracy back to front. They are there to serve the people, not tell the people they got it wrong and that they the politicians know better.

I’m not sure that the £39 Billion still stands. I may be wrong but I believe that was on the basis of leaving in March 2019. The budgetary period only runs to 2020. We didn’t leave in March 2019. I would have expected (but don’t know) that we would have been making further contributions as and when these have fallen due since then which would then reduce the amount payable. Also there is some suggestion although I accept this is from the current regime in power that the “legal” amount payable is significantly less and more in the region of about £9 Billion.

Also some EU countries will be hit more than others. Eire for one has an economy more inter linked with the UK than the rest of Europe. Also, using a football analogy, if Man City (UK) had a reduced income of 22,5% the impact on them is much less in real terms than if Bolton (Poland, Greece or Romania) had a 4% reduction in income.

All round it’s not good but the economic affects will be felt by the people and not the politicians (all sides) and it’s the politicians (all sides) who are currently playing politics and not thinking of the people. But then again, what’s new?
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I have avoided all discussion of the merits of the referendum and the degree of sanctity with which it should be viewed. I am only describing what it would seem to me are the inevitable consequences. You are of course correct that the impact will not be felt equally over all EU countries.

£9 billion is about our net contribution. We pay in more but get some back. The £39 billion is still a requirement. It may have amortised to £38.5 billion or so due to the extra 6 months membership but it is essentially unchanged.

If you are suggesting that we are in the position which Man City enjoys in comparison to anyone, I think that is unrealistic. A 5% -10% reduction in international trade would have negative effects to equal or exceed those of 2008 (no, I have no professional qualifications in this area).
 
Freddd said:
I have avoided all discussion of the merits of the referendum and the degree of sanctity with which it should be viewed. I am only describing what it would seem to me are the inevitable consequences. You are of course correct that the impact will not be felt equally over all EU countries.

£9 billion is about our net contribution. We pay in more but get some back. The £39 billion is still a requirement. It may have amortised to £38.5 billion or so due to the extra 6 months membership but it is essentially unchanged.

If you are suggesting that we are in the position which Man City enjoys in comparison to anyone, I think that is unrealistic. A 5% -10% reduction in international trade would have negative effects to equal or exceed those of 2008 (no, I have no professional qualifications in this area).
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No not Man City to the EU just in relation to some of the countries in the EU in relative terms.
 
Warm Pouch said:
I don't think the EU will be moving much - in their heads its 27 vs 1. They are right to, they hold better cards. The only way I could see that happening is if the Irish PM makes a specific request because they will be the country most affected by our exit of the EU countries. Their economy is so integrated with our own, whether that be goods passing though or foods and fuel imports. Also of course they have the relationship with Northern Ireland. At present Ireland has made no such request and have shown no inkling to do so.

Ireland remains a useful partner in these relations though. Their integration with us means the EU is unlikely to put silly tariffs in place or do anything to antagonise the UK should we exit without a deal. The EU isn't going to do something which ****s over one of its member nations. Either we will get a deal agreed or more likely we'll leave without a deal, and things will work themselves out from there.

I see no reason to panic. I'd have preferred to remain but I'd prefer even more now that we get some momentum behind enacting the vote that took place. Its becoming an albatross around the necks of all concerned. The delays are worse for us than the EU.
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Being brutally honest and realistic, it's 27 v 1 aye, but when about 24 of those nation's contribute not a single penny to the EU budget and run massive debts, I'd honestly be the 1 not paying for the Austrian, Hungarian, Croatian, Irish and Greem wefare states.
 
I'm not worried by all the scaremongering over trade. We will still have the ability to trade with the EU, though not as seamlessly as previously. Its in both parties interests to get as close to the status quo as possible. Obviously the EU have to be careful because what they don't want is member states saying well what is the point of being in this? But equally some of their member nations can't afford a tit for tat between the EU and Britain. So common sense will prevail there. We will also have the ability to set up our own trade deals with the rest of the world on our own terms, and not that of 28 nations all with varying interests. Obviously the EU arrive at the trade table in a stronger position than we will in many ways. The weight of 27 against the weight of 1. But we don't have to pick through all 27's interests to ensure everyone is satisfied. We can be selfish. There are pros and cons trade wise - most people can see that. We have a lot of people claiming to know what it will mean for Britain. This is unfortunately one of those things you only find out in practice. Once we leave we will know within 5 years whether trade wise it was a good idea.

The big concern seems to be how we manage the relationship with the US. But again this notion that any deal with the US is going to result in us being raped or ****ed over, is just scaremongering. The US manages to have many relationships around the world with big units like the EU, or small nations like ourselves, and they manage to do that without ****ing those countries over. Of course Trump is an aggressive deal maker and we will have to wary but even his term is time limited. However it doesn't mean he is looking to make the UK a colony to rape and pillage. Quite simply this is just more remoaner doomsday predictions.

Its the same with selling off of the NHS. They've taken one Trump comment out of context and decided we are selling our NHS. Its a load of rubbish. The US's main quibble about healthcare is they feel we and many others are paying less for our pharma than the US citizens because large state-funded health services like the NHS have massive bargaining power. They buy drugs in large quants and are good at negotiating discounts from the pharma companies. Obviously the set up in the US is different and fractured so they don't purchase like that - so they pay more. We can argue till we are blue in the face whether Trump has a point, but I think what they are talking about in relation to NHS and trade is that they may want us to pay more to help drive down prices in the US. Obviously that is not good for an already stretched NHS, but it certainly does not represent us selling off the NHS to America! Indeed Trump went back on his comments and their ambassador did once they saw how they were construed here.

The best thing about getting Brexit done is not having to listen to remoaners pontificate about how our demise will come about.
 
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I am going to use the anonymity of a football forum to decree that anybody who voted for Brexit is ****ing proper thick, they are utterly selfish and an aging old **** who should have their driving licence and right to vote taken away immediately. I'm glad the BBC are making old ****s pay for a TV licence. Charge the ****s double!
 
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YAJERK said:
I am going to use the anonymity of a football forum to decree that anybody who voted for Brexit is ****ing proper thick, they are utterly selfish and an aging old **** who should have their driving licence and right to vote taken away immediately. I'm glad the BBC are making old ****s pay for a TV licence. Charge the ****s double!
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The rich will do well from it .
 
Mickdundee said:
The rich will do well from it .
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Certain rich people will do very well from it, certainly. They have prpbably put it all in euros or us dollars as well the ****s.

The thick people will do well from it as well. They get to moan at the rising cost of living like they haven't ****ing hammered the final nail in the coffin of an inevitable IVA.
 
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YAJERK said:
Certain rich people will do very well from it, certainly. They have prpbably put it all in euros or us dollars as well the ****s.

The thick people will do well from it as well. They get to moan at the rising cost of living like they haven't ****ing hammered the final nail in the coffin of an inevitable IVA.
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Yep
 
Albert's Chip Shop said:
None of us actually know. It boils dow to whether we back our country to be a success in the future. I do.
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Well we won't die. I mean, we won't, but life expectancy will probably decrease slightly amongst the people who voted for Brexit, as energy and food becomes more expensive... And good riddance, maybe once the old ****s are gone we can vote back in!

There will be a recession, but the banks have been forced to maintain certain capital adequacy ratios, so it's not going to be as bad as 2008/9.
 
Albert's Chip Shop said:
None of us actually know. It boils dow to whether we back our country to be a success in the future. I do.
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Supporting Johnson is not supporting the country. All he is interested in is power. I do not know what people objected to about the EU. It certainly wasn´t economical, it wasn´t about regaining our rights. Possibly immigration but then the UK has always had waves of immigrants. Perhaps people were swayed by the spurious idea not being ruled by an alien power. Nothing could be more alien than Johnson´s AfUK party. (You just need to look at the Mogg) What it should boil down to is making the NE a powerhouse again. I bet you were a net recipient of funding from the EU. Liverpool was and they backed remain because the people of Liverpool were not brainwashed and never will be.
 
YAJERK said:
Well we won't die. I mean, we won't, but life expectancy will probably decrease slightly amongst the people who voted for Brexit, as energy and food becomes more expensive... And good riddance, maybe once the old ****s are gone we can vote back in!

There will be a recession, but the banks have been forced to maintain certain capital adequacy ratios, so it's not going to be as bad as 2008/9.
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The whole of Europe is heading to recession right now mate.. and beyond.

As long as we stockpile cans of beer and tons of beans we’ll live.
 
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