Off Topic The Politics Thread

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Should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave?

  • Stay in

    Votes: 56 47.9%
  • Get out

    Votes: 61 52.1%

  • Total voters
    117
  • Poll closed .
Irish Central Bank Warns of 100,000 Jobs Lost if No Deal
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The Central Bank of Ireland has sounded off about potential ‘cliff-edge’ risks in the event of a no-deal, no-transition Brexit:
“The main outstanding source of risk to financial stability in Ireland stems from a worse-than-expected macroeconomic shock. This could arise if the expected negative impact through trade channels is compounded by a sharp increase in uncertainty and a fall in confidence, with knock-on effects to Irish employment, incomes and investment. Ireland’s relatively acute exposure to Brexit may also negatively alter investor sentiment towards Irish assets, with adverse implications for financing conditions of an already relatively indebted private sector. Given the extent of direct and indirect exposures, this would result in unanticipated losses for the domestic financial system.”
The Central Bank forecasts that in a No Deal scenario Irish economic output could be approximately 6% lower in 2020. In the understated language of central bankers they warn of
“… severe financial market dislocation and have potential knock-on effects for financial stability in Ireland. Negative income shocks arising from a disorderly Brexit scenario would present challenges to the private sector in Ireland, and the domestic banking system from which they have borrowed .Despite recent delevering and balance sheet repair, the Irish non-financial sectors remain heavily indebted. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income ranks fifth highest within the EU and slightly above the OCED average,while a small pocket of SMEs still carry high debt levels. Irish retail banks remain the most important source of external financing for households and SMEs. The exposure of the Irish banking system to SMEs is significant vis-à-vis sectors that would be most affected by a disorderly Brexit, such as agriculture (Primary Industries), manufacturing, retail trade and tourism (Hotels & Restaurants). In addition, one quarter of Irish banks’ credit exposures are directly to borrowers in the UK, predominantly to the household and corporate sectors, (62% and 31% of UK exposures, respectively), creating a direct source of risk from a disorderly Brexit.”

Yesterday’s third quarterly report report from the bank predicts there will be around 34,000 fewer jobs by the end of next year and more than 100,000 fewer jobs over the medium term compared to their forecast in the event of no deal. The Irish workforce is only two and a quarter million – one fifteenth the size of the UK. This would be like the UK losing 1.5 million jobs, almost 5% of the workforce…
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The Irish business community is getting uneasy and going to start demaencending politicians get real and show some flexibility over the backstop. The Irish economy is at full capacity with GDP growth forecast to come in at a scorching 4.9% this year, this would plunge to 0.7% next year in the event of no deal…[/QUOTE
Interesting . So the consequence of stopping Eu migration will be much bigger numbers of Irish migrants coming over for work than ever beforeas they are entitled to whethere we are in the EU or not. Did any one tell Nigel that?
 
Why do you care about what nige thinks

Leave

Remain

Worry about the Irish

What was on the ballot paper

Of course the Irish will be allowed unfettered access to the uk
As far as I can tell from here the only people making Ireland a problem are the Europeans and the Irish

Unless the Europeans don't trust the Irish then check all Irish trucks at the French border
They will have to be checked there anyway as they have travelled across the British bandit country
 
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Why do you care about what nige thinks

Leave

Remain

Worry about the Irish

What was on the ballot paper

Of course the Irish will be allowed unfettered access to the uk
As far as I can tell from here the only people making Ireland a problem are the Europeans and the Irish

Unless the Europeans don't trust the Irish then check all Irish trucks at the French border
They will have to be checked there anyway as they have travelled across the British bandit country
Gosh Kiwi, what an ignorant post. I know you are of Irish stock but I thought you were more up to date with what's happening here than most.

What Ireland and the EU are concerned with is how Brexit will affect the island of Ireland in terms of peace and economics. Remember, there is no mandate for Brexit on the island North or South.

In terms of checking trucks, the EU are trying to maintain the integrity of the single market. Everything coming into the EU has to be checked to maintain standards. British trucks entering the EU at any point, will have to be checked. There is not a trust issue between the Irish and the EU. They trust us and we trust them. I am sure you have an idea what the EU has done for this island since 1973?? Back in 1973, we were an inward looking, relatively poor by European standards country with GDP 70% of the EU average. Now, we are an outward looking exporting country with huge foreign direct investment and GDP of 150% of the EU average.

Your previous post outlined what a no deal would do for the Irish economy. Tell us all what it would do for the British economy. Multiply the affect on us by 10 or 15 and you might be somewhere close. Our economy here is booming at the moment, last year it grew by 8% and was the fastest growing economy in the EU for the 4th or 5th year in a row. We are at full employment and a huge trade deficit of something like 60 billion euros per year. We can absorb the loss of 100K jobs over the next 10 years and have our economic growth reduce from 8% to 2% of whatever the figures suggest. How long will a no deal take the British economy to recover? I would suggest it will take something like 20 years and I see the Bank of England is suggesting the UK economy is on the brink of entering recession. That is before Brexit has even begun. At the end of the day, Boris is bluffing. The UK needs a deal more than the EU. Brexiteers will never accept that but that is the way it is. A no deal is not good for anybody but the UK will be by far the most affected.

Please post articles showing how a no deal might affect the UK economy and what a no deal might do for the union. Thanks.
 
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Gosh Kiwi, what an ignorant post. I know you are of Irish stock but I thought you were more up to date with what's happening here than most.

What Ireland and the EU are concerned with is how Brexit will affect the island of Ireland in terms of peace and economics. Remember, there is no mandate for Brexit on the island North or South.

In terms of checking trucks, the EU are trying to maintain the integrity of the single market. Everything coming into the EU has to be checked to maintain standards. British trucks entering the EU at any point, will have to be checked. There is not a trust issue between the Irish and the EU. They trust us and we trust them. I am sure you have an idea what the EU has done for this island since 1973?? Back in 1973, we were an inward looking, relatively poor by European standards country with GDP 70% of the EU average. Now, we are a outward looking exporting country with huge foreign direct investment and GDP of 150% of the EU average.

Your previous post outlined what a no deal would do for the Irish economy. Tell us all what it would do for the British economy. Multiply the affect on us by 10 or 15 and you might be somewhere close. Our economy here is booming at the moment, last year it grew by 8% and was the fastest growing economy in the EU for the 4th or 5th year in a row. We are at full employment and a huge trade deficit of something like 60 billion euros per year. We can absorb the loss of 100K jobs over the next 10 years and have our economic growth reduce from 8% to 2% of whatever the figures suggest. How long will a no deal take the British economy to recover? I would suggest it will take something like 20 years and I see the Bank of England is suggesting the UK economy is on the brink of entering recession. That is before Brexit has even begun. At the end of the day, Boris is bluffing. The UK needs a deal more than the EU. Brexiteers will never accept that but that is the way it is. A no deal is not good for anybody but the UK will be by far be the most affected.

Please post articles showing how a no deal might affect the UK economy and what a no deal might do for the union. Thanks.

Kiwi's post was so ignorant, I didn't think it was worth responding to. It got some 'likes' though, remarkably.
 
I voted to leave the EU, Strolls.

Go away from.

Cease to be a member of.

Depart from.

Withdraw from.

Retire from.

Take oneself away from.

Exit from.

Take one's leave from.

Quit.

Understood but why? Plus are you prepared to face all the consequences?
What are the post Brexit plans to rebuild the U.K.?

Oh and half the population wants to simply remain
Could they perhaps remain in the EU ? Simple enough as we believe the EU is doing a great job and our country is better off staying with

Always two sides to an argument our beliefs are just as simple ... we would prefer to stay in the EU based on the performance and faith of it

Not having faith in the U.K. government or the problems after we leave looks today to be correct way imo
 
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Give it it's real name? Brexit.

Please don't equate Brexit to English Nationalism, which I would imagine those on the other side of the argument may then conclude equates to xenophobia and racism. Sure, it might be the case for extremists, but I respectfully suggest that the majority of those that voted Leave are neither racist nor xenophobic but, like Col, simply want the UK to have a greater say in its own destiny, rather than belong to some big club where its just a cog. Whatever that means in reality.

Driving a wedge through the UK? Yes, Scotland leaving the UK may be an unwelcome outcome, but they're angling to leave anyway. Their 2014 referendum was nearly as close as the EU referendum, with only 55% in favour of leaving the Union (on a near-85% turnout). It's the same situation. Wee Jimmy Krankie is itching to ask the people again, more so since the EU referendum as she rightly sees this as being a potential tipping point that'll give her the result she craves. If she gets the independence vote, the Scottish people never get asked the question again.

It's the same with the EU referendum. If we'd voted to Remain, we would never have been asked the question again during my lifetime... so I had to vote Leave for my own conscience. It's a legitimate position just the same as remaining is a legitimate position.

Scottish voting is quite interesting. I'd not really looked at it before in any detail, simply accepting the reports that 62% voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum.

- In the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, 2,001,926 out of 3,619,915 (that could properly complete a ballot paper) voted to remain in the Union; that's 55.3% and means 1,617,989 wanted to leave the Union.

- In the 2016 EU referendum, 1,661,191 out of 2,679,513 voted to remain in the EU; that's 62.0% and means 1,018,322 wanted to leave the EU.

Is it reasonable to assume that those wanting Scottish independence also want to remain in the EU? That is what Elton's Daughter would have us believe. If that's the case, then this is roughly supported by the 1.6 million voting to leave the Union, but stay in the EU.

But 983,000 were passionate enough about remaining in the Union, but not sufficiently exercised to vote one way or the other about leaving or staying in the EU.

Could it be that they couldn't have given a flying **** one way or the other, which isn't exactly a resounding support for the EU? According to the Beeb turnout north of the border was only 67%. A mere 56% turnout in Glasgow.

You can do what you like with statisitics, but I'd say these blighters are more focussed on the Scottish Independence issue (one way or t'other) than the EU issue.

If I was Scottish I certainly would trust the EU a lot more than I would the British
Just look where we are today ? The old blame game is the only substance left to a Brexiteer imo

Again I say let the Brexiteers pay for of this at least. Solely responsible for killing off the U.K. for what? No one can give us a plan of any action post Brexit
 
If I was Scottish I certainly would trust the EU a lot more than I would the British
Just look where we are today ? The old blame game is the only substance left to a Brexiteer imo

Again I say let the Brexiteers pay for of this at least. Solely responsible for killing off the U.K. for what? No one can give us a plan of any action post Brexit

The whole thing since Cameron announced he’d hold a referendum has been an exercise in protecting the Tory party.

What’s the majority now? 1? Let’s bung the DUP another few quid to prop the Tories up for a few more months because that money couldn’t be spent better elsewhere.
 
All this spending announced today
All of a sudden 2bn is found however as it was pointed out the money was being spent anyway

Still the sheep will feel a lot safer in the blue field

6,000 more police in a year is daft as daft
9,000 will leave naturally or take security based jobs anyway. Where are the police stations to cope with any expansion? Oh we sold them off?

29,000 police force workers cut in the last few years and with more leaving the police force than every before in history!

But the message is clear the post Brexit U.K. will be safer ... good grief
 
Again I say let the Brexiteers pay for of this at least. Solely responsible for killing off the U.K. for what? No one can give us a plan of any action post Brexit

So, if a Comrade Corbyn Labour government wins the next General Election, can we say that all that voted for that clown have to pay all the new taxes his administration introduce whilst the rest of us get a waiver?

Making Brexiteers responsible for paying for this is one thing, but who’s going to take responsibility for making 52% of those that voted feel that way? Who’s going to pay for turning an attractive free trade area (that we voted for) into an unelected superstate boys’ club (that we didn’t)?
 
Understood but why? Plus are you prepared to face all the consequences?
What are the post Brexit plans to rebuild the U.K.?

Oh and half the population wants to simply remain
Could they perhaps remain in the EU ? Simple enough as we believe the EU is doing a great job and our country is better off staying with

Always two sides to an argument our beliefs are just as simple ... we would prefer to stay in the EU based on the performance and faith of it

Not having faith in the U.K. government or the problems after we leave looks today to be correct way imo

Let’s never bother with elections and referendums ever again. This democracy malarkey is only what it’s cracked up to be if the result is what you want.

We never complain anywhere near as loudly when political parties win GEs by a ‘landslide’ of less that 40% of the turnout.
 
Let’s never bother with elections and referendums ever again. This democracy malarkey is only what it’s cracked up to be if the result is what you want.

We never complain anywhere near as loudly when political parties win GEs by a ‘landslide’ of less that 40% of the turnout.

We have a parliamentary democracy. Most MPs think Brexit is a stupid idea.
 
Frankly, if I was Johnson I’d be tempted to reverse Brexit and out-French the French by being such a monumental pain in the arse at the heart of the EU that the U.K. is eventually asked to leave.

I’d end this British sense fair play and refuse to give up our waters to Spanish fishermen, return all our weights and measures to Imperial, burn French produce at Dover, return to our passports, have a British citizen queue at ports of entry, refuse to pay all the inevitable fines and more.

Blair and Cameron both said we should reform the EU from within, so let’s start by acting like spoiled, belligerent children.
 
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Impossible to say when 37% voted for it with what’s proven to be highly imperfect info. We’d vote to blow our own bollocks off if we’d been drip fed for decades that we’d be better off without them.

Elections and referendums don’t have to take into account the IQ of the voter, otherwise I might not have had the opportunity to piss you off. :)
 
Frankly, if I was Johnson I’d be tempted to reverse Brexit and out-French the French by being such a monumental pain in the arse at ty heart of the EU that the U.K. is eventually asked to leave.

I’d end this British sense fair play and refuse to give up our waters to Spanish fishermen, return all our weights and measures to Imperial, burn French produce at Dover, return to our passports, have a British citizen queue at ports of entry, refuse to pay all the inevitable fines and more.

Blair and Cameron both said we should reform the EU from within, so let’s start by acting like spoiled, belligerent children.

...and we should tell Macron his wife is past it, and if he want to come on a state visit with someone as old as his mother, he should bring his mother