I wrote: It does not matter if the race is six furlongs or three miles. With a fifteen length handicap, Dancing Brave would not have won the Prix Du Jockey Club. Over ten furlongs, a length is worth 1.75 pounds on the BHA handicap scale, so Baraan would need to have been more than 26 pounds better than Reliable Man (rated 121 for winning) to have stood any chance.
I was certainly sad to learn Behkabad sustained such a serious knee injury early on in the season. Knee fracture sounds bad; would be surprised to see him back racing? Backed him in last year's Arc. He had an absolutely terrible run, and was not particularly well-ridden by Lemaire either. However, he would not have beaten Workforce or Nakayama Festa IMHO, but with a clearer passage might well have grabbed third? I wish Behkabad well; hope he recovers real soon.
Re the ones that do appear to be running: It's a bit of a guessing game but if SMS decided that Nathaniel had the better chance in the Arc and Sea Moon had a better chance in the St Leger he clearly rates the former pretty highly. I wonder which he regards the better out of Nathaniel and Workforce, at the weights. Oh to know someone from the yard. For all we know Nathaniel might be giving Workforce a run at levels at home. Can anyone see anything other than the following filling the first 3 places? Nathaniel Sarafina Workforce Galikova Reliable Man
Nathaniel is with Gosden Ron. I think he'd still be my pick at this stage. There is plenty of time for all that to change between now and then mind!
I've just watched last year's race again and - as I thought at the time - the Japanese horse was an unlucky loser. I know there is often trouble in the race but given the narrowness of his defeat he would undoubtedly have won had he not been checked on the final bend. For some reason the jockey got some stick but it was obvious that the horse was pulling out all the stops for him and is very game. I can see him running another big race.
I mean Sea Moon was held in by Brown Panther coming alongside. Would love to know whether Stoute thinks of Sea Moon in comparison to Workforce. Interestingly Redwood will surely not go to the Arc, and Byword hasn't looked the same horse, so a second Prince Khlaid horse wouldn't go a miss.
Does anyone know what the score is with regards to Fame And Glory? I was always under the impression he was to be aimed at the Arc again, though his latest two disappointing runs might suggest a different agenda. Would be a shame as he was very unlucky last year.
At this stage it is difficult to know what Aidan O’Brien will be running in the Arc. Whilst in June one might have thought that Fame And Glory could be a leading candidate, his abysmal performances since must put a serious question mark against him. Looking at the betting, St Nicholas Abbey was the shortest-priced Ballydoyle entry followed by non-stayer Roderic O’Connor and Cape Blanco. One might expect Treasure Beach and Await The Dawn (both 40/1) to be more realistic prospects, especially the former. Going back to what Ron wrote about who will be the first three home, there must be something currently trading at big odds that will run into a place as it is very rare that these big races see all the places filled by the fancied runners. The Japanese horses will be big prices with our bookies because they know that nobody will back them. I wonder what Nakayama Festa’s odds were last year. This year, he and Hiruno D’Amour were 33/1 before last Sunday, Victoire Pisa was 25/1 and Nakayama Knight was more than 50/1.
The 'Weekender' at the moment are very good at unearthing interesting and relevant stats/trends re races and one re the Arc is that 11 out of the past 12 winners had won a middle-distance Group 1, that season, by 2+ lengths. On that basis there are 4 qualifiers this term - Danedream, Galikova, Nathaniel and So You Think. Does anyone know much about this German filly, Danedream, beyond the fact that she won the Italian Oaks, and 2 Group 1 races effortlessly this summer and what’s on the RP database??? Currently 25/1 for the Arc she certainly deserves closer scrutiny but I have absolutely no idea if the plan is to go to Longchamp, with her, on the first Sunday in October.
Danedream does not hold an entry for the Arc so they would have to supplement her. As the supplementary date is Thursday 29th September I guess we will have to wait and see unless one of our German-based correspondents has heard/read anything in their media. The only report I could find about her winning the Grosser Preis Von Baden mentioned the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare as a possible target. If they want a day out on the Bois de Boulogne, the owner will have to shell out the Euros (assuming that the Euro is still a valid currency in a fortnight).
And the big news today is that So You Think is confirmed to be on target for the Arc. Whilst it all seems fine i suspect that the news must be treated with caution. O'Brien says "So You Think is in great form and all being well with him, the plan is to run in the Arc given reasonable ground conditions". This certainly seems to leave a 'get out of jail card' for them should conditions not be in his favour. I suspect that if the ground is soft then they might well re-route to the Champion Stakes instead. I think he deserves to be given a chance in the race and think his handy style of racing will serve him in good stead. He can be out front away from the trouble that will inevitably ensue in behind.
Thanks, QM. Just found this quote re Danedream from her trainer, after her Group 1 win earlier this month (the full article is on her RP database profile under 'stories'), "She does not look like much but the way she has improved this season has been quite astonishing. I shall now discuss the possibilities with the owners. One option would be to supplement her for the Arc or the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf, and she is also entered in two very valuable races in Japan." Will wait with interest to see what they decide to do with Danedream.
Zenyatta, it is very interesting that So You Think is potentially a runner; personally I thought they would bottle it (and they may still do if the ground is soft). Obviously his legion of followers should hold their bets until the day unless they can find some non-runner no-bet terms. It is ironic that he fits SBC’s (Weekender) statistical anomaly thanks to those egg-and-spoon races in Ireland that he farmed at the beginning of the season. The statistic about O’Brien only winning the Arc once despite loads of fancied runners will undoubtedly be swept under the carpet.
LONGINES GROSSER PREIS VON BADEN (GROUP 1) (3YO+) (TURF) (3yo+) 1m4f Very Soft £129,310.34, £51,724.14, £21,551.72, £12,931.03 Danedream beat Night Magic by 6l with Joshua Tree and Maria Royal 7l back in 3rd and 4th (Settled in 2nd, 3 lengths behind leader, travelled smoothly through final turn, cruised into lead 2f out, soon went clear, extended advantage all the way to finish, easily). She was receiving 12lb and 9lb from the 4yos JT and MR/NM Difficult to assess the form as the 2 Irish horses are not up to much but she beat them easily. As far as improvement is concerned, her previous run was also against Night Magic who she beat a similar margin but receiving 12lb. Not sure how that constitutes rapid improvement. When a filly wins that easily it's impossible to know how she would have faired against stiffer opposition. Personally I don't think the bare form is good enough for an Arc.
Been trawling the german sites for news on Danedream. I can tell you she cost a mere €9000 at auction a year ago and has already earned €584,710 in prize money. She already has entries for the Breeders Cup and (via her latest victory) an automatic entry for the Shuka Sho in Japan (the 3rd leg of the Japanese fillies triple crown, €810,000 to the winner). She would need to be supplemented for the Arc. She has an International Rating of 121 (same as Immortal Verse and ahead of Blue Bunting) making her the joint-equal highest rated 3YO filly worldwide. I found a brief interview with the trainer from this Monday asking for his reaction to the Arc trials and whether Danedream would be going to Paris. His response: "Nothing is decided yet and we are looking at all the possibilities. But Paris is not a million miles away".
Both Danedream and SYT qualify with their wins over pretty poor opposition so that could just leave Galikova and Nathaniel. If there is to be an outsider in the frame I think I'll go along with QM suggesting it could be one of the Japanese. If we could decide which one and add that into the 5 above (I'm assuming SYT wiill not run) a Trifecta with one or to of those locked in to the first 3 could be interesting, especially if the selected Japanese makes the frame.
