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Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2011

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Tamerlo, Sep 13, 2011.

  1. King Shergar

    King Shergar Well-Known Member

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    Atleast you can get a bet on at Towcester:biggrin:
     
    #81
  2. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    These were the initial entries, just to bare in mind.

    Horse * Weight Rating Priorité Owner Trainer Purse Rcl
    1 byword gb m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** KHALID ABDULLAH A. FABRE 573.851
    2 redwood gb m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** KHALID ABDULLAH BW. HILLS 1.589.224
    3 workforce gb m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** KHALID ABDULLAH SIR MR. STOUTE 3.253.917
    4 behkabad m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** S.A. AGA KHAN JC. ROUGET (S) 985.403
    5 afsare gb m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** CHEIK MOHAMMED OBAID AL MAKTOUM LM. CUMANI 63.319
    6 lancelot m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** CHEIK ABDULLAH BIN KHALIFA AL T F. HEAD (S) 115.345
    7 so you think nz m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 2.350.274
    8 st nicholas abbey ire m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 52.948
    9 diamond boy m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** MME BERNARD DESTREMAU F. DOUMEN (S) 104.500
    10 planteur (ire) m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** ECURIE WILDENSTEIN E. LELLOUCHE 887.357
    11 dandino gb m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** ELITE RACING CLUB JG. GIVEN 157.185
    12 scalo gb m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** GESTUT ITTLINGEN A. WOHLER 280.600
    13 flamingo fantasy ger m.ps. 6 ans P2 59,5 *** GESTUT PARK WIEDINGEN S. SMRCZEK 8.000
    14 calvados blues m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 508.818
    15 campanologist usa m.ps. 6 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 389.336
    16 cavalryman gb m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 208.531
    17 cutlass bay uae m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 293.020
    18 debussy ire m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 559.725
    19 mastery gb m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 945.754
    20 monterosso gb m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 1.040.040
    21 passion for gold usa m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 22.219
    22 prince bishop ire m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 149.336
    23 rewilding gb m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 2.565.160
    24 simon de montfort ire m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 121.384
    25 silver pond m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** HARAS DU QUESNAY C. LAFFON-PARIAS 124.200
    26 cape blanco ire m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** HAY/SMITH/MAGNIER/TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 1.889.022
    27 fame and glory gb m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** HAY/SMITH/MAGNIER/TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 567.601
    28 eishin flash jpn m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** TOYOMITSU HIRAI H. FUJIWARA 2.722.874
    29 hiruno d'amour jpn m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** MASAFUMI HIRUKAWA M. KON 2.979.471
    30 nakayama festa jpn m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** SHINICHI IZUMI Y. NINOMIYA 2.137.578
    31 tip toe m.ps. 4 ans P1 59,5 450 WILLIAM JEFFCOCK F. DOUMEN (S) 41.000
    32 OUT OF EDEN (GB) M.PS. 4 ans 59,5 *** KSK NURBEK A. SHAVUYEV 1.624
    33 TALGADO GB M.PS. 4 ans 59,5 *** LIDER RACING STABLE F. NEUBERG 46.811
    34 jan vermeer ire m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 317.758
    35 beat black jpn m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** KOJI MAEDA H. NAKAMURA 962.803
    36 earnestly jpn m.ps. 6 ans P2 59,5 *** KOJI MAEDA S. SASAKI 1.673.561
    37 await the dawn usa m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** MICHAEL TABOR/MME JOHN MAGNIE AP. O'BRIEN 83.360
    38 viscount nelson usa m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** MME J. MAGNIER/MME D. NAGLE AP. O'BRIEN 147.597
    39 zack hall m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 495 MATHIEU OFFENSTADT M. DELZANGLES 87.700
    40 celtic celeb ire m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 515 HENRI DE PRACOMTAL F. DOUMEN (S) 209.100
    41 arctic cosmos usa m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** RACHEL HOOD/ROBIN GEFFEN J. GOSDEN 375.270
    42 royal bench ire m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** R.C. STRAUSS R. COLLET (S) 655.440
    43 wiener walzer ger m.ps. 5 ans P2 59,5 *** BARON GEORG VON ULLMANN A. FABRE 81.205
    44 zazou ger m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** WH SPORT INTERNATIONAL MAR. HOFER 222.770
    45 no risk at all m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** SUC. DANIEL WILDENSTEIN JP. GALLORINI (S) 43.500
    46 victoire pisa jpn m.ps. 4 ans P2 59,5 *** Y. ICHIKAWA/T. YOSHIDA K. SUMII 8.655.254
    47 liang kay ger m.ps. 6 ans P2 59,5 *** MME INA E. ZIMMERMANN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 37.000
    48 announce gb f.ps. 4 ans P2 58 *** KHALID ABDULLAH A. FABRE 148.100
    49 midday gb f.ps. 5 ans P2 58 *** KHALID ABDULLAH HRA. CECIL 875.787
    50 sarafina f.ps. 4 ans P2 58 *** S.A. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 1.251.855
    51 snow fairy ire f.ps. 4 ans P2 58 *** ANAMOINE LTD EAL. DUNLOP 2.337.274
    52 lily of the valley f.ps. 4 ans P2 58 *** BERNARD BARSI JC. ROUGET (S) 300.470
    53 antara ger f.ps. 5 ans P2 58 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 190.445
    54 sajjhaa gb f.ps. 4 ans P2 58 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 97.130
    55 night magic ger f.ps. 5 ans P2 58 *** STALL SALZBURG W. FIGGE 276.770
    56 myplacelater gb f.ps. 4 ans P2 58 *** A.J. THOMPSON DRC. ELSWORTH 86.104
    57 SEA MOON GB M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** KHALID ABDULLAH SIR MR. STOUTE 4.787
    58 slumber gb m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** KHALID ABDULLAH BW. HILLS 27.972
    59 WORLD DOMINATION USA M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** KHALID ABDULLAH HRA. CECIL 15.377
    60 baraan m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 520 H.H. AGA KHAN JC. ROUGET (S) 53.400
    61 dildar (ire) m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 460 H.H. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 37.200
    62 vadamar m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 490 H.H. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 58.150
    63 CHIEF OF STAFF GB M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** CHEIK MOHAMMED AL MAKTOUM A. FABRE 27.400
    64 MANHAJ GB M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM J. HAMMOND (S) 26.500
    65 MANJAKANI GB M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** CHEIK MOHAMMED AL MAKTOUM A. FABRE 12.500
    66 yaseer ire m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM MP. TREGONING 13.483
    67 plushenko ire m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** ALLEVAMENTO LA NUOVA SBARRA L. RICCARDI 17.102
    68 carlton house usa m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** S.M.R. D' ANGLETERRE SIR MR. STOUTE 105.183
    69 native khan m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** V.I. ARACI EAL. DUNLOP 165.733
    70 BEAULIEU (IRE) M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** GERARD AUGUSTIN-NORMAND E. LIBAUD (S) 36.600
    71 SAINT DESIR (GB) M.PS. 3 ans 56 480 GERARD AUGUSTIN-NORMAND E. LELLOUCHE 29.000
    72 MOHAWK CHANT (GB) M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** MUTEB BIN ABDULLAH A. FABRE 2.400
    73 APACHE IRE M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 14.170
    74 treasure beach gb m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 87.304
    75 prairie star m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 515 ECURIE WILDENSTEIN E. LELLOUCHE 194.475
    76 SANO DI PIETRO (GB) M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** ECURIE WILDENSTEIN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 20.400
    77 casamento ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 270.843
    78 dubai prince ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 39.940
    79 french navy gb m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 76.150
    80 genius beast usa m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 52.168
    81 laajooj ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 28.546
    82 ocean war gb m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 31.646
    83 saamidd gb m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 86.168
    84 nakayama knight jpn m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** SHINICHI IZUMI Y. NINOMIYA 886.684
    85 MR CHANCE M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** GERARD LABOUREAU D. SMAGA 12.000
    86 regent street (ire) m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 28.315
    87 seville ger m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 111.514
    88 master of hounds usa m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** MME SUSAN MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 389.939
    89 pour moi ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 510 MME S. MAGNIER/D. SMITH/M. TA A. FABRE 103.100
    90 QUEST FOR PEACE IRE M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** MME SUSAN MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 13.250
    91 recital m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH/MORDUKHOV AP. O'BRIEN 236.199
    92 roderic o'connor ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 *** MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH/SANGSTER AP. O'BRIEN 423.067
    93 touz price m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** JURE MARDESIC JM. LEFEBVRE (S) 42.650
    94 GIANT STEP IRE M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** MME JOHN MAGNIER/MICHAEL TABO D. WACHMAN 6.900
    95 MARKSMANSHIP IRE M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 11.050
    96 memphis tennessee ire m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 25.480
    97 maxios (gb) m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 470 FAMILLE NIARCHOS JE. PEASE 56.000
    98 PLANET ELDER (GB) M.PS. 3 ans 56 *** FAMILLE NIARCHOS P. BARY (S) 12.000
    99 lustre m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** AYMARD DE NICOLAY Y.DE NICOLAY 42.050
    100 RELIABLE MAN (GB) M.PS. 3 ans 56 495 PRIDE RACING CLUB A.DE ROYER DUPRE 29.000
    101 absolutly yes m.ps. 3 ans P2 56 475 PAUL SEBAG YM. PORZIER (S) 64.400
    102 genzy m.ps. 3 ans P1 56 *** MICHAEL WATT JE. PEASE 37.350
    103 INOUBLIABLE (GB) M.PS.+ 56 *** WERTHEIMER & FRERE A. FABRE 37.000
     
    #82
  3. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    104 starformer usa f.ps. 3 ans P1 54,5 *** KHALID ABDULLAH MME C. HEAD-MAAREK 34.000
    105 SHARETA (IRE) F.PS. 3 ans 54,5 *** S.A. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 28.600
    106 testosterone (ire) f.ps. 3 ans P1 54,5 *** ECURIE LA BOETIE P. BARY (S) 26.350
    107 ANDROMEDA GALAXY F.PS. 3 ans 54,5 *** ECURIE WILDENSTEIN E. LELLOUCHE 18.800
    108 golden lilac ire f.ps. 3 ans P2 54,5 *** GESTUT AMMERLAND A. FABRE 326.130
    109 blue bunting usa f.ps. 3 ans P2 54,5 *** GODOLPHIN M. AL ZAROONI 269.450
    110 khawlah ire f.ps. 3 ans P2 54,5 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 1.021.979
    111 white moonstone usa f.ps. 3 ans P2 54,5 *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 222.620
    112 DALARUA (IRE) F.PS. 3 ans 54,5 *** HARAS DE LA PERELLE S. WATTEL 21.800
    113 misty for me ire f.ps. 3 ans P2 54,5 *** M.TABOR/MME J.MAGNIER/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 528.295
    114 wonder of wonders usa f.ps. 3 ans P2 54,5 *** M.TABOR/MME J.MAGNIER/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 31.040
    115 galikova f.ps. 3 ans P2 54,5 *** WERTHEIMER & FRERE F. HEAD (S) 77.580
    116 INSOUMISE (IRE) F.PS. 3 ans 54,5 WERTHEIMER & FRERE A. FABRE
    117 pirika (ire) f.ps. 3 ans P1 54,5 *** TERUYA YOSHIDA A. FABRE 28.000

    • Closing
    FORFAIT 1 Mardi 27 Septembre 2011 10h30 BOULOGNE
    FORFAIT 2 Mercredi 28 Septembre 2011 10h30 ''
    PARTANT PROBABLE Jeudi 29 Septembre 2011 10h30 ''
    ENGAGEMENT SUPPLEMENT. Jeudi 29 Septembre 2011 10h30 ''
    ANNULATION PART PROB Vendredi 30 Septembre 2011 10h30 ''
    MONTE Vendredi 30 Septembre 2011 10h30 ''
     
    #83
  4. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    Thanks for the information QM. I might have to drop you a line if and when i get round to giving it a go. You seem to have a fair idea what you're on about.

    Any need for some French language? Or will English or a bit of 'Franglais' get you by?
     
    #84
  5. bayernkenny

    bayernkenny Well-Known Member

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    I used to travel to Longchamp for the Arc from Edinburgh every year. I found the entrance charge and the draft beer fairly reasonable compared to British tracks. There used to be a 'quick' eatery built into the back of the grandstand where 'steakfrits' was inexpensive.
    Most of the staff on the PMU counters speak English. There is also a Tote Credit area about midway down the back of the main grandstand.

    I gave up going to the Arc because of the behaviour of some of our compatriots!

    Have started to visit Auteuil during early November for Week-end International de L'Obstacle. The Sunday is comparable with a day at the Cheltenham festival (three grade 1 races) and costs only 4 euros entrance.

    My tips for the Arc:

    Short price - Reliable Man - bet UK odds.

    Mid Price - Meandre - 16/1 with Coral!

    Long Odds - Danedream (once confirmed) - 33/1 with Ladbrokes.
     
    #85
  6. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    bayernkenny is correct that most of the staff speak pretty good English as they are well used to the influx of English/Irish day trippers for the Arc.

    Tote Credit do not really have an ‘area’ anymore although there is a small office from which they operate if you happen to be one of their card-carrying customers. This used to be good for finding out the Newmarket results when the Cambridgeshire card was on Arc weekend Saturday (until this year).

    Auteuil is East South East of Longchamp on the Bois de Boulogne and has the considerable advantage of being a few yards from the Porte d’Auteuil metro station. There are no stations near Longchamp, on the West side of the park close to the Seine.
     
    #86
  7. bayernkenny

    bayernkenny Well-Known Member

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    Doubt if my earlier post had such an effect but have just noticed that:

    Danedream cut to 25/1 with Ladbrokes.

    Meandre cut to 12/1 with Coral.

    Can't wait for first weekend in November!!
     
    #87
  8. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    bayernkenny, you mention a couple of horses and the odds shorten. You aren’t Pricewise operating under a pseudonym, are you?
     
    #88
  9. bayernkenny

    bayernkenny Well-Known Member

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    QuarterMoon11

    No, just a very strange coincidence!

    Still waiting to hear if Danedream will be supplemented. Cannot believe that race conditions allow a horse to be supplemented up to 29 September which is three days before the race.

    Earlier post asked about comparative costs between Arc and BC Filly and Mare Turf. BC website suggests Danedream is Breeders Cup nominated so we are looking at 100,000 Euros for Arc and 'zip' for Churchill Downs. With Midday possibly on the wane and, as far as I am aware, no great turf females in the USA the owners might play safe and stick to original plan.
     
    #89
  10. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    I've taken some big prices today before everything begins to shorten, obviously at the risk of some (all?!) being non runners.

    VADAMAR at 90/1

    Dubai Prince at 340/1

    ST NICHOLAS ABBEY at 85/1

    Sea Moon at 170/1

    It just looks an open Arc and some of the French trials were all within a length or two of one an other as usual, meaning that some horses might be overpriced if running, SNA and Vadamar in particular.

    Obviously Sea Moon and Dubai Prince are unlikely, but Godolphin don't have any candidate as it stands and everything has gone a bit quiet on Sea Moon since the Leger, though Ryan Moore hinted Sea Moon was not expected to be going.
     
    #90

  11. King Shergar

    King Shergar Well-Known Member

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    I doubt if any of them are running TC, the only one you could have a slim shout with would be Dubai Prince. Only because he is completely unexposed having only had 3 starts. winning well on each occasion. I still feel The Arc is unlikely as it's a very big ask for a horse with such little experience. Godolphin dont have a realistic contender, so you never know they might take a chance, but I'd still be spurised if they did :biggrin:
     
    #91
  12. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    That is how supplementary entries work for all the Group races where they are allowed in France. It even works that way for the few races where the BHA allow supplementary entries here – it is at the last declaration stage or the overnight stage.

    I think that is as fair as they can be because they are expecting the owner to shell out a big fee so they should be allowed to wait as late as possible so they do not wind up paying a fortune three weeks before the race and then the horse stands on a stone on the gallops a week later. Whether the general principal of supplementary entries is fair to the other runners is another debate.


    For what it is worth, I do not think that Midday is “possibly on the wane”. She has just been raced against the colts this year several times and she still hasn’t managed to beat them. If she had gone for the Yorkshire Oaks rather than the Juddmonte International at York, she would probably have won.

    Looking at Danedream’s form, she has won against some dubious quality opposition by big margins on soft ground. She may not get such favourable conditions at Churchill Downs. If I had seen any of her races, I would probably be concluding that she is a plodder with feet like dinner plates capitalising on the fast horses getting stuck in the mud (apologies for sounding like a broken record).
     
    #92
  13. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Yeah they are all speculative Shergar, I just wanted to make sure I had some big prices covered, as a 'just-incase' type bet.


    If the Arc was tomorrow I would probably back Workforce.
     
    #93
  14. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Just spent 30 min hunting down film of Danedream in action. I have to say that on what I saw, she's hardly a plodder with feet like dinner plates. In the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin, she came with a wet sail in the straight to easily win. I can't say what the state of the track was, but the sun was out that day and they didn't appear to be getting into the ground. I can see why they are thinking of paying the late fee.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqPPi1p4YtM
     
    #94
  15. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Cyc, I have found a write-up of the Grosser Preis von Berlin and I will assume that “gut” is German for “good” regarding the ground. I have no idea what the standard time at Hoppegarten would be but 2:33.50 looks very respectable. The runner-up Scalo won a moderate Group 2 race at Deauville in August; his Group 1 wins may all be at home or in Italy.

    In the English report on the race on Bloodhorse, the trainer is quoted as saying that Danedream holds an entry for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. I don’t know how much extra they have to pay to confirm that entry but I would not back Danedream at fancy prices for the Arc until they actually splash the cash.
     
    #95
  16. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    No me neither QM, I'm a So You Think fan. From what I gather the trainer of Danedream says the owners are giving serious consideration to the Arc run though.
     
    #96
  17. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    There has been a bit of money for St Nicholas Abbey this morning. Oddschecker flagged it up as being shortened from 50's into 33/1 with old Skybet. Think its been said that if Sea Moon goes again this term then it is most likely to be in the Breeders Cup Turf and Dubai Prince is possibly heading to the Champion Stakes.

    I would imagine that the market will remain fairly static for the next week but will come alive again thereafter especially if anything is supplemented. As I've already said think Danedream the intriguing one but she's not a betting proposition until her entry status has been firmed up.

    Meanwhile, I can't bally believe how Betfair have prices up on horses now with Mr Henderson and Mr Nicholls and who are both being prepared for a NH career!
     
    #97
  18. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    St Nicholas Abbey down from around 80/1 to 40s on Betfair in the last hour or so. :emoticon-0148-yes:
     
    #98
  19. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    That would have to an indicator I suppose.
     
    #99
  20. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Hope so, I think St Nic deserves a chance in a big field on ground with some give- should be a fair pace to aim at and he does stay well IMO.

    Do you think Vadamar will run? I still think he's a gradually improving horse and if the cards fell right for him he can make the frame. Betfairs odds suggest he might not.
     
    #100

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