If Nathaniel runs at least a place in the Arc, we need to get somebody along for a photograph when Famouswise hands over the fifty notes to TopClass. I can’t see it happening myself – they’ll be old white fivers with cobwebs on them! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I bet Nathaniel is edged out to 4th in a photo finish!
I quite liked the look of Galikova in the trials, ran like never even had a race. I am not sure if Workforce is the horse he was last year but if he is then there will be very little between him and Nathaniel and both will be hard to beat. I would like to see Stoute run Sea Moon as i think the race at the weekend did not suit in as much as Gosden knew he had an out and out stayer that many now feel will be Gold cup bound. To this end he set the race alight from the stalls and ran the finish out of everything. Sea Moon will be better for a normal paced mile and half and i think as he has had such a short season should be given a go in which case a Khalid Abdullah 1-2 could be very possible.
Does anyone know if it is likely we will see Sea Moon in the Arc? I'd say it looks deserving of a crack. Reminds me a lot of Harbinger- a Stoute improver with a great turn of foot. As much as I cheered Masked Marvel home on Saturday, having re-watched the race Sea Moon was very unlucky- held in for a long time by Fallon at the crucial stage.
It was Peslier on top, and i would agree that it wasn't the finest ride i have ever seen. Nevertheless i think it must be doubtful whether he would have won because Masked Marvel ran out a convincing victor in the end. I think he would definitely have been second though. I'd also agree that he's worth a shot at the Arc. He's had a light campaign and may not have had a hard race in the Leger. Obviously it all depends on how he comes out of the race.
I missed the post St Leger debate on here but, for what it is worth, I did not think that it was a very good race at all. Ignoring Blue Bunting because she ran a stinker, the proximity of upgraded handicapper Brown Panther to a Group 1 winner makes it look very ordinary. That it was a record time running into a headwind shows what a job the pacesetters did. I can see Masked Marvel stepping back to a mile and a half next season and as Sea Moon has next to no miles on the clock I expect to see him do the same. Whether they send Sea Moon to Paris will probably depend on Khalid Abdullah’s plans for the other horses that he has entered. I expect that Midday will not be going and his two chief entries apart from Workforce are Redwood and Byword.
If Sea Moon didn't have a hard race in the St Leger then he could take his chance but I would prefer he left it until next year for which he would be my long range selection. Masked Marvel showed just how relevant times are when assessing performances. The headwind did the time no favours and it showed that when it's against the clock the best horse will in and those that can look impressive in more slowly run races can be exposed. I haven't really noticed this horse but the way he won the St Leger makes him some sort of power house and I'm sure he will win a lot more races now. If I owned him I would have him in next year's Arc for sure. Workforce should be better than last year as he was a big baby as a 3yo. He must have a good chance. I'm slightly worried about Galikova and Remainder Man. I like Sarafina but the ground may be against her.
I agree with QuarterMoon's comments. I was very disappointed with Sea Moon. Irrespective of getting a bit boxed in, he just didn't have the pace to get out of trouble. Moreover, the top three year olds just don't seem to have "continuity of form." ie. An impressive Voltigeur winner like Sea Moon cannot beat a horse like Brown Panther, so where does that leave us? I cannot believe that Sea Moon will go to Longchamp, but you never know.
Sea Moon does hold an entry in the Arc but as Sir Michael Stoute thinks that the Arc Trials are too close to run any of his horses, surely the St Leger (one day earlier) is too close as well. I guess it is up to the owner – ultimately it is he who foots the bill. Masked Marvel is not entered in the Arc this year and it does not seem likely that connections will supplement him as John Gosden must have some idea of his relative merits compared to Nathaniel at this stage of his career. Sarafina was third in last year’s Arc on soft ground and has been successful on pretty much every type of going in France. My concern would be that her “hold up and come late” racing style is not ideally suited to the large Arc field and her successes this year have all been in small fields. Ron, I am not sure how you had Baraan as the “form pick” for the Arc. He was left at the gate in the Prix Du Jockey Club (winner Remainder Man) and there is no evidence to suggest that he would not repeat that petulance and have to come through the entire field to feature.
QM I agree that would be one chance that would have to be taken with Baraan but prior to that he showed significant progress to beat Pour Moi (comfortably) and the race you mention was over 10.5f on soft going and I watched that race. The horse has a lot of ability to get within 3l of Reliable Man in the circumstances (see below), considering what Reliable Man did to Meandre in their re-match. Baraan Dwelt, soon ridden but at least 15 lengths adrift of next runner, made gradual headway to be on terms with next-to-last runner 3 1/2f out, pushed along and headway 2f out, staying on when not much room and switched right inside final furlong, never nearer. The time was faster than standard even though the going was soft. Anyway it's all academic.
Masked Marvel is most unlikely to run in the Arc. The only horse to win the St Leger and the Arc was Ballymoss in 1957 and he was 4yo when he won the Arc. The only other runners to win the St Leger and get placed in the Arc all contested the Arc as 3yos Ribocco 3rd 1967 Nijinsky 2nd 1970 Crow 2nd 1976 Sun Princess 2nd 1983 Snurge 3rd 1990 User Friendly 2nd 1992 It is considered to be too close to the Arc and I suspect MM had a hard race.
Ron, as you posted, no horse has ever done the St Leger – Arc double in the same season. I don’t think that is down to the closeness of the two races but more to do with the fact that the St Leger has historically been won by a pure stayer, not a horse with the turn of foot that is usually required at Longchamp. In the list that you gave, Nijinsky would be the exception. With regard to Baraan, I totally agree with Jim McGrath’s assessment of the Prix Du Jockey Club (which was pretty much what I stated) and the state of the ground and the distance of the race are irrelevant if you spot everyone a fifteen length lead.
Really? Is that Jim McGrath from Timeform? I could accept that in a slowly run race but not in fast run race.
It never occurred to me to say Channel 4’s Jim McGrath, but of course there is Aussie Jim at the BBC and Daily Telegraph (normally referred to as J.A. McGrath except when on air). Yes, I did mean him and I should tell those of you that are tax exiles on the continent that he quit Timeform back in 2009, a couple of years after Betfair took ownership. When he and John Francome were reviewing a recording of the Prix Du Jockey Club on Ch4 and Baraan was described by somebody as running on and unlucky, he pointed out that the horse was tardily away and it wasn’t exactly finishing with a wet sail, just running through beaten horses. The bit about going and distance being irrelevant was just me pointing out the bl**ding obvious!
Well I'm going with Reliable Man in the Arc. Did me proud in the Prix de Jockey club (I got a friend to post that selection up for me on Fugees on the day of the race ) and in the absence of anything stand out i'll stick by him.
I would say that the distance and going (soft) combined with the time of the race (fast) was fairly relevant. But I'm no expert.
Think I will wait until there is a clearer picture of what is running - I do like Sarafina and Reliable Man though......
