Cheltenham 2019 Ante Post Thread

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OddDog said:
I just think with another year of strengthening he might see out the trip better. When Native River finished 3rd a couple of years ago one could argue he got outstayed at the end of a long, hard season but made mo mistake a year later.

Any of these good novices likely to rock up at Newbury st the end of November for tha Ladbrokes Trophy?
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For me it's hard to imagine Native River was outstayed behind Sizing John. He had already won the Welsh National on soft ground and the ground at Cheltenham for the Gold Cup was much less testing. The time for Sizing John's Gold Cup was three seconds faster than this year's race and Native River's win was one of the rare Gold Cup races that took more than seven minutes to run. Bobs Worth took more than seven minutes to win his Gold Cup and you need to go back to 1989 and Dessie beating Yahoo in a ploughed field to find the only other 7 minute plus Gold Cup of the last thirty years.

It seems too much of a coincidence that the time Native River won it was when the ground was very testing.

Regarding this years's race the Irish Handicapper put Al Boum Photo up 10 lbs for winning and Anibale Fly up 7 lbs for being runner up. I am always a bit dubious when two horses gain quite big personal bests in the same race. Anibale Fly was 4th in the Grand National last year off 159 and I am not sure I would give him a chance off his new official rating of 170 on Irish Ratings but luckily for the horse he is in at Aintree off 164 and in theory is 6 lbs well in. It didn't take long for his National Odds to contract from 25/1 to a best price now of 12/1.
 
tward07 said:
Also worth noting that Topothegame has very strong form over shorter aswell. That run behind Defi Du Seuil looks incredible now. Although his aim may be the Gold Cup next year, can see him mopping over some shorter distanced races to split the pair.
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Nicholls seems very keen on the idea that Topofthegame is a Gold Cup horse. It might be that Clan Des Obeaux is the one to stay at less than Gold Cup trips.

Topofthegame went up 8 lbs for winning the RSA while Clan Des Obeaux went down 1 lb for his Gold Cup effort. That leaves Topofthegame 9 lbs lower than Clan Des Obeaux and better in for Handicap Races than his 172 rated stablemate.

Bobs Worth won the Hennessy off 160 before going on to win the Gold Cup and Topofthegame is feasibly in the same area to go to that race next season.
 
Grendel said:
For me it's hard to imagine Native River was outstayed behind Sizing John. He had already won the Welsh National on soft ground and the ground at Cheltenham for the Gold Cup was much less testing. The time for Sizing John's Gold Cup was three seconds faster than this year's race and Native River's win was one of the rare Gold Cup races that took more than seven minutes to run. Bobs Worth took more than seven minutes to win his Gold Cup and you need to go back to 1989 and Dessie beating Yahoo in a ploughed field to find the only other 7 minute plus Gold Cup of the last thirty years.

It seems too much of a coincidence that the time Native River won it was when the ground was very testing.

Regarding this years's race the Irish Handicapper put Al Boum Photo up 10 lbs for winning and Anibale Fly up 7 lbs for being runner up. I am always a bit dubious when two horses gain quite big personal bests in the same race. Anibale Fly was 4th in the Grand National last year off 159 and I am not sure I would give him a chance off his new official rating of 170 on Irish Ratings but luckily for the horse he is in at Aintree off 164 and in theory is 6 lbs well in. It didn't take long for his National Odds to contract from 25/1 to a best price now of 12/1.
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The prices of Anibale Fly and Tiger Roll seem completely wrong when you compare the marks they run off this year to the marks they ran off last year. Its an early closer so they run off their pre Cheltenham marks but all the same they look to my eye to have it all to do this time round.
 
stick said:
The prices of Anibale Fly and Tiger Roll seem completely wrong when you compare the marks they run off this year to the marks they ran off last year. Its an early closer so they run off their pre Cheltenham marks but all the same they look to my eye to have it all to do this time round.
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floridaspearl said:
What price Frodon for next years gold cup? He would have pissed it this year.
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You can get double carpet but he probably won't run. Nicholls has got Topofthegame now as well so I would imagine it will be Ryanair again.

Frodon won the Ryanair without improving on anything he had done before. Road To Riches has been a three mile horse for a while now, Un De Sceaux looks past his best at 11YO and Footpad broke blood vessels in the Ryanair. The Official Handicapper put runner up Aso up 6 lbs for being runner up to Frodon in the Ryanair and that looks a bit dubious to see a horse improve that much on his 29th start aged 9YO.

I think sometimes the excitement and media hype gets to those doing the assessing because the Racing Post gave Road To Respect a higher rating at the Ryanair trip than they gave him for winning what was is now the Savills Chase. It's been getting on for two years since Road To Respect ran over as short as the Ryanair and puzzling that he got such a high rating that makes the trainer look like he's had him at the wrong trip for ages.
 
Grendel said:
You can get double carpet but he probably won't run. Nicholls has got Topofthegame now as well so I would imagine it will be Ryanair again.

Frodon won the Ryanair without improving on anything he had done before. Road To Riches has been a three mile horse for a while now, Un De Sceaux looks past his best at 11YO and Footpad broke blood vessels in the Ryanair. The Official Handicapper put runner up Aso up 6 lbs for being runner up to Frodon in the Ryanair and that looks a bit dubious to see a horse improve that much on his 29th start aged 9YO.

I think sometimes the excitement and media hype gets to those doing the assessing because the Racing Post gave Road To Respect a higher rating at the Ryanair trip than they gave him for winning what was is now the Savills Chase. It's been getting on for two years since Road To Respect ran over as short as the Ryanair and puzzling that he got such a high rating that makes the trainer look like he's had him at the wrong trip for ages.
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I’m not interested in ratings. I go by what I’ve seen. Frodon would have pissed that gold cup and Nicholls knows it.
 
NassauBoard said:
He barely beat Aso!
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He was cruising. Bryony said after the race she had plenty of horse left. She was worried they were going too slow and the stats said it was a very quick race. That’s the thing with Frodon he has a high cruising speed, he wouldn’t have to stay in that gold cup,they were strung out like the washing a mile out.
 
floridaspearl said:
He was cruising. Bryony said after the race she had plenty of horse left. She was worried they were going too slow and the stats said it was a very quick race. That’s the thing with Frodon he has a high cruising speed, he wouldn’t have to stay in that gold cup,they were strung out like the washing a mile out.
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Don’t agree at all, he looked beat in the Ryanair and that was under a optimal ride. In the Gold Cup he would have been taken off his feet by Might Bite and then Native River. Not a chance of him beating that field on the form I’d say. His win surely guarantees him staying at the Ryanair trip too. Especially given the good stayers Nicholls now has for the GC.
 
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NassauBoard said:
Don’t agree at all, he looked beat in the Ryanair and that was under a optimal ride. In the Gold Cup he would have been taken off his feet by Might Bite and then Native River. Not a chance of him beating that field on the form I’d say. His win surely guarantees him staying at the Ryanair trip too. Especially given the good stayers Nicholls now has for the GC.
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And I disagree. You wait when Frodon wins the king George.
 
floridaspearl said:
You are looking at the two novices and clan. Don’t know about the novices but Frodon beats clan, for me.
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Clan, Topofthegame and Cyrname. A King George, a RSA and a massively encouraging horse.

I’m a fan of Frodon but against those I’d be backing against him everytime. Especially in the King George and Gold Cup where he won’t be able to dominate.

Look at how far Elegant Escape was beaten in the Gold Cup to see what a task that race was in comparison.
 
NassauBoard said:
Clan, Topofthegame and Cyrname. A King George, a RSA and a massively encouraging horse.

I’m a fan of Frodon but against those I’d be backing against him everytime. Especially in the King George and Gold Cup where he won’t be able to dominate.

Look at how far Elegant Escape was beaten in the Gold Cup to see what a task that race was in comparison.
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And look who won the gold cup? Don’t get me wrong,a gold cup isn’t easy to win. I think Nicholls will experiment with Frodon and see where it takes him. They went Ryanair because they thought they could win and that race turned out to be more competitive than the gold cup in my eye. Frodon only seven so he hasn’t got to step up much in distance just class and he looks battle hardened to me.
 
floridaspearl said:
You are looking at the two novices and clan. Don’t know about the novices but Frodon beats clan, for me.
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you been on the skunk florida ?
Frodon is a good horse , but not a world beater , he would have had his heart broken in that gold cup, as nass says , he’d have been out of his comfort zone , nicholls does know where to place horses in relation to each other , and he did well this year
 
rudebwoy said:
you been on the skunk florida ?
Frodon is a good horse , but not a world beater , he would have had his heart broken in that gold cup, as nass says , he’d have been out of his comfort zone , nicholls does know where to place horses in relation to each other , and he did well this year
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It’s just an opinion rudey, a deluded one but mine own.
 
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Cyrname doesn't go left handed they reckon so I would think he will be Nicholls King George horse and probably try and follow up in the Ascot Chase. It might be interesting if he had his King George prep in the Tingle Creek <whistle>

Topofthegame is now rated 163 which is 2lbs above Denman's winning mark in his first Hennessy. Might connections be tempted to follow that route rather than chase the million bonus starting at Haydock (given that they'll have others for the King George)?

Frodon's advantage for a possible Gold Cup bid is that he loves Cheltenham (especially the new course) but the time of his win in the Cotswold Chase (20 seconds above standard) doesn't compare well with Al Boum Photo's victory last week (just 2 seconds above standard).
 
OddDog said:
Cyrname doesn't go left handed they reckon so I would think he will be Nicholls King George horse and probably try and follow up in the Ascot Chase. It might be interesting if he had his King George prep in the Tingle Creek <whistle>

Topofthegame is now rated 163 which is 2lbs above Denman's winning mark in his first Hennessy. Might connections be tempted to follow that route rather than chase the million bonus starting at Haydock (given that they'll have others for the King George)?

Frodon's advantage for a possible Gold Cup bid is that he loves Cheltenham (especially the new course) but the time of his win in the Cotswold Chase (20 seconds above standard) doesn't compare well with Al Boum Photo's victory last week (just 2 seconds above standard).
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the clock don’t lie , eyes can deceive , but not the clock
 
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