Off Topic UK / EU Future

I stand by the above comment.

 

I am sure you do. Most of us do. We all thought / knew brexit would be difficult - except a number of pro brexiters who told us it would be easy.
However my question referred to your statement:.
All free trade deals the EU currently have can easily be replicated and /or rolled over to continue trading with the UK
I asked if your "easily" in that statement is as easy as Liam Fox and others told us brexit would be (- not how difficult it has turned out).
How easy will it be?.

 

much easier

 

Of course the reality is untrue... the ONLY people saying it will be easier are hard Brexiteers.....

Setting up a trade deal with one other country can take years

 

It can be done quicker if you just cave in on all health and safety standards Yorkie - this is what SH. means. If we make the UK. a dumping ground for all the American gene manipulated agricultural products and offer their companies a free licence to frack where they want then we can get a deal very quickly.

 

Not at all. The current trade deals that the EU have with other countries can be rolled over immediately to the UK as we have current regulatory convergence which has been already been agreed. These bilateral trade agreements with partner countries can then be tweaked for mutual advantage by ongoing negotiation without considering the particular needs of 27 other nations.

 

The government gets its way by threatening a vote of confidence tomorrow. Shame that it wasn't tested.

 

I know we dont like simply posting cuts and pastes on this thread.... but this summary confirms many peoples concerns

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Saved me doing it, that's for sure...

 

They can’t merely be replicated as we’d have to agree quotas as a solus nation as opposed to a trading bloc of 28.

Those quota negotiations wouldn’t be a 5 minutes task, and that also assumes that every nation would wish to replicate the EU deal on the same terms with us as a 60m market compared to the 550m EU market.

Add this to the list of ‘it’ll be a piece of piss honest’ that the hard Brexit advocates have been saying about seemingly everything.

We fall out of 759 treaties on March 29th next year unless we agree a deal and thus a transition period. Those treaties cover everything from medicine to Euratom to Open Skies.....an absolute doddle.....

 

This afternoon the PM was giving evidence to the liaison committee on Brexit and admitted that her customs plan would not be fully operational by the end of the transition period, i.e. December 2020. Asked to explain how it would work, she was unable to do so. Let us remember that without a deal there is no transition period, so next April we would have no means of collecting any revenue on goods coming into or leaving the country. While other countries are preparing to deal with no deal, the UK continues to believe that it is so special the EU will change all of their systems to accommodate them. Wishful thinking.

 

Well, it is not a given that the forecasts are accurate, but the important points are
1) They have been produced by the Govt Dept specifically tasked with managing the exit, together with an independent organisation tasked with delivering honest unbiased figures
2) There aren’t any other authoritative forecasts-they are the only ones we have got

So, only a govt of particular stupidity would pursue any option other than the best. Equally, only a bunch of selfish myopic zealots would argue for the worst options at the expense of the best.
Yes you have guessed-we are led by a govt of particular stupidity controlled by a bunch of ....

 

I read this from time to time, not being a part of it but lately I've noticed a concentration on the economy by you lot.
Surely one of the key things that the leave people want is to do with sovereignty. To put it into a cliche, they would rather be poor and free than rich and relinquish control to outsiders.

You are arguinging rationally but this isn't about rational argument. It is about emotion.

The cynic in me believes that the leave leaders will always come out well financially. For them power is what is important.

 

I do not think our politicians are stupid Bodbo - they are scared. By some kind of twisted version of democratic thinking it was possible to say Brexit was the 'will of the people'( = electorate who bothered voting) but it was never the will of parliament, and therein lies the problem. The Brexiters in parliament have a mandate for Brexit but not for anything else eg. running the country - so a Hard Brexit led Government is out of the question. We are being taken out by remainers who are too afraid to stand up and say that a question of this importance cannot be decided by one narrow vote taken on one day of the year two years ago with a different electorate to what we have now.

 

I think it’s a bit of both mate.

Most of them are woefully ill informed. The Govt impact assessments weren’t made public but they’ve been in the Commons library for MPs to view. They have to sign in to get access. 6% of the 650 have bothered.

Last night gave a great example of just how clueless they collectively are. They voted for an amendment to Mays bill that would ensure we stayed in the EMA (medicine alignment). Sounds sensible eh? Only you have to be an EU or EEA member to be a part of the EMA, Mays plan isn’t to keep us in the EEA. They’re operating in an echo chamber and seem to have forgotten that the EU play a role in these ‘decisions’ and their rules are their rules.

 

But the people driving this have worked out how to make it work to their favour... .we can be sure of that

 

The past few posts say a lot. NZ talks about emotion. It is far easier to sell emotion than detail. People were told they could have control over their lives, something that many didn't feel that they had. Many thought they after years of austerity they couldn't get much poorer.
Cologne makes the point that the politicians are scared. Well many are scared about losing their jobs. Coming out with the truth is not something that will make you popular if you are saying that your electorate have been sold a pup.
Tobes is right to point out that this whole debate is internal, with both parties split and news suggests that the EU have looked at the white paper and cannot believe what they have been presented with.

For months I tried to say how the EMA brought a huge benefit to the country by being based in London, apart from the work it actually does. The details are complex as explained to me by my son-in-law who is in the industry. For most of the population it is something to be left to politicians, but as Tobes points out even they do not understand what they are doing.

 

Of course. They will be the only winners.

 

I hadn’t really thought of it like that- I have been really mystified by the lemming-like behaviour of far too many MP’s. Perhaps they have behaved like lemmings for so long they can’t break the habit. Stupidity was the only word that appeared to describe the journey taken by the govt. in the light of the evidence-as presented above.
However, in our system the govt. is pretty powerful, even in a minority form. The near-biblical status of the result of an ill-informed, deceitful , referendum in which it appears to supersede Parliament, is the big problem.
Maybe, just maybe, when the true awfulness of our departure becomes apparent, enough people will decide to turn the ship around.
Thanks though for helping to explain this mystery.

 

I think you have hit the nail on the head. Apart from the hoped for trade deals I have seen no argument for an economic brexit. Equally I have seen very few arguments from remainers that did not focus on the economy. There are no forecasts that show we will be a richer nation for brexit. It follows then that unless 17.4 million are crazy they were following their emotion.
Personally I do not see how being in or out of the EU affects our sovereignty on a day to day basis but if you are anti-establishment then perhaps thumbing a nose at the establishment comes close to this.
Immigration is the key emotional issue though. Never mind whether immigrants benefit our economy or take our school places, houses and jobs; if we feel they somehow are changing our culture then we vote against them- again entirely emotional and not economic.
I am not a cynic and still believe that most politicians believe that they are there for the people they represent - be that the working class or landed gentry. Someone who simply wants to feather their own nest can do so far more effectively than on an MPs salary of £77k. I do agree that power is a motivator for many of them. However you can be powerful and still do the best for your constituents /party/ country.
What I do believe is many MPs are simply incompetent and simply follow the leader. When the leader is incompetent and inept and lacks vision you have a recipe for trouble.