Was last night the difference?

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tiger_parasol

New Member
Jan 29, 2011
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I had the feeling that last nights game was critical to our play-off hopes. Leeds occupying the final playoff spot. This is our ambitious target for this season, given our poor start to the campaign.

Yet we lost our 2 goal lead and had to split the spoils, as a result we are 8 points off the play-offs (given goal difference), as opposed to 5 points.

To claw 8 points back over 17 games requires us to have 0.47 points per game more than Leeds. Leeds current ratio is 1.59.

Therefore we would have to maintain a 2.06 point per game ratio just to pip them to 6th spot (assuming leeds maintain their 1.59 ratio).

Top six point per game ratios so far are : QPR 1.93 / Norwich 1.76 / Swansea 1.72 / Forest 1.81 / Cardiff 1.71.

Had we have won last night, we would have had to increase our ratio by 0.30 points per game to 1.89 which looks more in line for top six form.

I appreciate there is a lot of statistics there but I do think last nights game was big for this reason. Its looking more and more likely like a mid table season for us.
 
I can't see us turning performances into wins soon enough for a play-off place, which is frustrating since we ARE one of the best sides in this poor league, and whoever comes down from the EPL will improve the league, of that I'm sure. Still, next year has to be the aim, we're not very far off at all. Just need to 'click'.
 
Having made up no ground on the play-off teams in our recent games, I think a play-off place is now dependent on other teams falling apart.

If Leeds lose Snodgrass, they could well be one team that does fall apart, they have a history of doing so.
 
originallambrettaman said:
Having made up no ground on the play-off teams in our recent games, I think a play-off place is now dependent on other teams falling apart.

If Leeds lose Snodgrass, they could well be one team that does fall apart, they have a history of doing so.
Click to expand...

Why would Leeds lose Snodgrass OLM? I think we will have a strong finish to the season but ultimately believe we are too far adrift at this stage to reach the top 6 :(
However, I have been proved wrong several times, so here's hoping :)
 
we only need to catch one of those teams and cardiff are on the slide.
 
There's lies, damn lies and statistics but I can't help feeling that we're too far behind for the push as you've represented. We're acheiving much more than I expected at the start of the season or even 10 games ago so I'm still a happy Tiger and honestly I can't remember the last time we finished in mid-table mediocrity.

Time to enjoy watching some youngsters develop and possibly put a winning streak together. Real shame we jumped ship on the FA Cup as this was the year for a good run.
 
i think we could make the playoffs but i dont think were ready so i might prefer it if we dont.
 
tiger_parasol said:
I had the feeling that last nights game was critical to our play-off hopes. Leeds occupying the final playoff spot. This is our ambitious target for this season, given our poor start to the campaign.

Yet we lost our 2 goal lead and had to split the spoils, as a result we are 8 points off the play-offs (given goal difference), as opposed to 5 points.

To claw 8 points back over 17 games requires us to have 0.47 points per game more than Leeds. Leeds current ratio is 1.59.

Therefore we would have to maintain a 2.06 point per game ratio just to pip them to 6th spot (assuming leeds maintain their 1.59 ratio).

Top six point per game ratios so far are : QPR 1.93 / Norwich 1.76 / Swansea 1.72 / Forest 1.81 / Cardiff 1.71.

Had we have won last night, we would have had to increase our ratio by 0.30 points per game to 1.89 which looks more in line for top six form.

I appreciate there is a lot of statistics there but I do think last nights game was big for this reason. Its looking more and more likely like a mid table season for us.
Click to expand...

5 wins on the trot for City would make your stats look like just stats.
 
Agrre with x... I think we can and will just make the playoffs but I am not sure that I want it to happen. If we succeed and gain the premiership again will we be able to cope? If we attain the playoffs but fail it may mean a loss of confidence for next season? (Sorry to be so negative but its what I fear)
 
I will be quite happy with 7th-10th this season and then a genuine push for automatic promotion next season. If we keep going about things as at present I do believe we'll be contenders for the division title next season. However, if we do somehow get promoted this season I feel we won't be ready and can see us repeating the last 2-3 seasons all over again, (though hopefully without the Dufftan debt accumulation).
 
Boothferry_Legend said:
Got to disagree but Snodgrass was one of the best players on the pitch last night, I'd take him off their hands without a second thought!!
Click to expand...

I'd rather remain the good guys like we always seem to, I realise we do lose out sometimes by not having these horrible players who are both dirty, and get decisions by having a go at the ref all the time, but I'd rather have players who are techincally gifted like our current players, and the players NP likes to sign.

He's effective, but he's a cheat and a proper tosser.
 
too many tough away games.. qpr,, forest, watford...swansea

to close the gap we would probably need to win these, not take points, which would in other circumstances usually be good ones.
 
Can't see us making thew play offs, too many points to make up. Just hope we win these next two or our season will be in danger of falling away and I can't be doing with drawing every week for the rest of the season
 
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