Would going out of the CL in the group stage be such a bad thing?

[cini65]

No you can't. Do you even understand basic statistical analysis? The Universe may be infinite.. Arsenals chances of Winning the Champions League are not.

The odds are currently at 28/1. - we were priced at 15/1 before our last two losses.
I should probably add Liverpool were priced at 33/1 the year they won the Champions League. By Half time against AC Milan in the final those odds had dropped to 100/1 - Yet they still won it.

Weaker teams than ours have won this competition.

You've avoided parts of my question. When have we ever knocked out any of those teams? And you think we will this season?

And you're being pedantic anyway. Of course there's a chance Arsenal could win the CL this season. There's also a chance that Cheryl Cole will walk into my work tomorrow stark naked and ask me for a threesome with her and Scarlett Johansson. There both about as likely to happen. The odds are so infinitesimally small that you can pretty much assume they won't happen.

If you're going to base your blind hope of Arsenal winning things on the statistical fact that they have some sort of chance of winning it, while completely ignoring how close to 0% that chance is, then you go for it. But don't accuse those who aren't so myopic of being non-Arsenal fans.

 

[lazarus20000]

No you can't. Do you even understand basic statistical analysis? The Universe may be infinite.. Arsenals chances of Winning the Champions League are not.

The odds are currently at 28/1. - we were priced at 15/1 before our last two losses.
I should probably add Liverpool were priced at 33/1 the year they won the Champions League. By Half time against AC Milan in the final those odds had dropped to 100/1 - Yet they still won it.

Weaker teams than ours have won this competition.

Of course a team can technically win it, but doesn't mean they have a serious hope of. But realistically we have little chance of winning the CL at the moment. We did well in the past due to having top quality CFs like Henry and RVP, it is no surprise that we are struggling with GIroud up front. He's good to a certain point, but against the elite, no.

 

[TheBear]

You've avoided parts of my question. When have we ever knocked out any of those teams? And you think we will this season?

And you're being pedantic anyway. Of course there's a chance Arsenal could win the CL this season. There's also a chance that Cheryl Cole will walk into my work tomorrow stark naked and ask me for a threesome with her and Scarlett Johansson. There both about as likely to happen. The odds are so infinitesimally small that you can pretty much assume they won't happen.

If you're going to base your blind hope of Arsenal winning things on the statistical fact that they have some sort of chance of winning it, while completely ignoring how close to 0% that chance is, then you go for it. But don't accuse those who aren't so myopic of being non-Arsenal fans.

Again you are posting nonsense!!

We haven't knocked out any of those teams!! because guess what? THAT WOULD BE AN IMPOSSIBILITY.

Teams change every year. Players get injured, sold, they age, have personal problems.. managers change. Also form changes.. and these variables are what make football exciting!!

Why don't you get this!? it is simple. We're not the best team in Europe but we can win the Champions League.

 

[cini65]

Again you are posting nonsense!!

We haven't knocked out any of those teams!! because guess what? THAT WOULD BE AN IMPOSSIBILITY.

Eh? So you are now accepting that it was actually an impossibility for us to KO Barca, Bayern et al when we've faced them in the knockout stages in recent tournaments?

Teams change every year. Players get injured, sold, they age, have personal problems.. managers change. Also form changes.. and these variables are what make football exciting!!

If only something would actually change at Arsenal and actually make a season of ours a bit exciting. But it doesn't. And it won't for a year or two yet until Wenger leaves or gets hounded out.

Why don't you get this!? it is simple. We're not the best team in Europe but we can win the Champions League.

We've covered this already. Your simplistic view of probabilities obviously keeps you happy and hopeful. But not many others. All of the teams left could theoretically win it. And, like most of them, we won't be winning it. As close to certainty as you can get about most things in life Being in the CL right now is not that exciting. Are you claiming Zagreb last week was exciting? The same thing happens year after year after year. Every group we 're with a stronger team who finishes above us, and two weaker teams who we finish above. So we come 2nd in the group stage and then get KO'd in the first round. Zzzzzz.

Screw that though. WE CAN WIN IT, YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sanj]

You are ridiculous and this is a ridiculous thread. I'm not even sure how to classify you, certainly 'Arsenal fan' doesn't work.

If we get passed the group stage there is a chance we can win it. This is a Cup competition and a certain amount of luck is required.

Sure Bayern, Barca,Juve and Real have better sides than us.. But on our day we can still beat any of them.

We have been knocked out in the last 16 five years in a row. Those four are better than us, and so are PSG,Chelsea,Atletico Madrid and Manchester City. So that's eight teams who have better players and managers than us, and as last season proved, even teams like Monaco can knock out our sorry bunch.

You use Liverpool as an example but back than the CL was not even as strong as it is today, and we have regressed since than. Our chances of winning the CL with Wenger as manager is simply not going to happen, you are just utterly utterly deluded if you even think we have an outside chance. Also you could argue that only that Liverpool team of 2005 was weaker than ours, and that is what one example in 20 years? And please do not mention Porto, they had the likes of Deco and Carvahlo as well as a brilliant tactical manager.

So even if our team is not the strongest, we could even potentially win it if we had a brilliant manager who could do something against the odds and organise his team to beat teams with better players like Simeone, but no, we have Wenger. So forget it.

 

[BrunelGooner]

You are ridiculous and this is a ridiculous thread. I'm not even sure how to classify you, certainly 'Arsenal fan' doesn't work.

Comments like this are just so incredibly stupid. Who gave you the right to determine who is or who isn't an Arsenal fan? You are a nobody.

If we get passed the group stage there is a chance we can win it. This is a Cup competition and a certain amount of luck is required.

Our chances of winning it are very slim and all the evidence would suggest that we don't have the capability of winning it, due to our manager, due to our team not being as strong as others (emphasis on the word 'team', not 'players') and due to our lack of depth in certain positions. Logically, it is safe to say that we have next to no chance of winning the Champions League.

If we have had stronger sides in the past but have still been knocked out by weaker teams, I'm not sure why you can assert that we have a realistic chance to win it, when - in terms of squad development - we've pretty much stayed the same and most of the other sides that were already better than us have either reinforced their squad or they've already got a good enough team and players, so they don't need as many additions.

Sure Bayern, Barca,Juve and Real have better sides than us.. But on our day we can still beat any of them.

In a one-off game, perhaps. However, most of these sides we would need to play over two games. In fact, with Bayern, we do need to play them over two games, but even if we do get through to the last 16, we would at some point inevitably have to play a big team. And honestly, over 180 minutes, the team we have in its current manifestation is simply not good enough to overturn the better sides - either tactically or talent wise. We always get outthought and outplayed in Europe and there's been nothing to even remotely suggest that this season could be any different in Europe.

I am amazed that you can remain so optimistic in adversity. Literally, no matter how little progress we show and no matter how rubbish we can be, you still manage to remain confident in this team. I'm not sure whether I should be commending you or labelling you as delusional.

 

[TheBear]

Eh? So you are now accepting that it was actually an impossibility for us to KO Barca, Bayern et al when we've faced them in the knockout stages in recent tournaments?


If only something would actually change at Arsenal and actually make a season of ours a bit exciting. But it doesn't. And it won't for a year or two yet until Wenger leaves or gets hounded out.


We've covered this already. Your simplistic view of probabilities obviously keeps you happy and hopeful. But not many others. All of the teams left could theoretically win it. And, like most of them, we won't be winning it. As close to certainty as you can get about most things in life Being in the CL right now is not that exciting. Are you claiming Zagreb last week was exciting? The same thing happens year after year after year. Every group we 're with a stronger team who finishes above us, and two weaker teams who we finish above. So we come 2nd in the group stage and then get KO'd in the first round. Zzzzzz.

Screw that though. WE CAN WIN IT, YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't think its harder to win it that it was a few years back actually. The English league has got weaker as has the Italian league.


Too simplify. You started a thread saying there's absolutely No possibility we can win the Champions League this Season therefore there's no point us being in it (to paraphrase).

I'm saying we can win the Champions League and this can be proven by basic statistics or maths. Also history gives us many examples of teams overcoming odds to win. (I agree it's unlikely but this is part of what makes sport entertaining)

So what about Bournemouth, Southampton, Aston Villa, Stoke, Swansea - should they bother playing in the Premierleague?.. I mean after all there's very little point if they are not gonna win it.

 

[TheBear]

Eh? So you are now accepting that it was actually an impossibility

No.. Im saying. Evertime you play a team the variables change. This is why people watch football - because there's always a chance.

 

[TheBear]

Comments like this are just so incredibly stupid. Who gave you the right to determine who is or who isn't an Arsenal fan? You are a nobody.



Our chances of winning it are very slim and all the evidence would suggest that we don't have the capability of winning it, due to our manager, due to our team not being as strong as others (emphasis on the word 'team', not 'players') and due to our lack of depth in certain positions. Logically, it is safe to say that we have next to no chance of winning the Champions League.

If we have had stronger sides in the past but have still been knocked out by weaker teams, I'm not sure why you can assert that we have a realistic chance to win it, when - in terms of squad development - we've pretty much stayed the same and most of the other sides that were already better than us have either reinforced their squad or they've already got a good enough team and players, so they don't need as many additions.



In a one-off game, perhaps. However, most of these sides we would need to play over two games. In fact, with Bayern, we do need to play them over two games, but even if we do get through to the last 16, we would at some point inevitably have to play a big team. And honestly, over 180 minutes, the team we have in its current manifestation is simply not good enough to overturn the better sides - either tactically or talent wise. We always get outthought and outplayed in Europe and there's been nothing to even remotely suggest that this season could be any different in Europe.

I am amazed that you can remain so optimistic in adversity. Literally, no matter how little progress we show and no matter how rubbish we can be, you still manage to remain confident in this team. I'm not sure whether I should be commending you or labelling you as delusional.

I'm not actually being that optimistic. I'm just saying we CAN win it. ..and If we get past the groups stages our odds increase considerably.(being a knock-out tournament)

It is statistically possible. Weaker teams have done so in the past.It may be more likely Real Madrid win the tournament but I still want to watch because this is what makes sport exciting.

To claim 'we can't win it so shouldn't play' is not only negative it's also factually incorrect.

 

[cini65]

No.. Im saying. Evertime you play a team the variables change.

There are also many variables that don't change.

This is why people watch football - because there's always a chance.

No it isn't. People watch football because it's entertaining and they affiliate themselves with a team. There is a probability of >0%, but absolutely no real chance of it actually happening, of Bournemouth winning the premier league this year. There is a probability of >0%, but absolutely no real chance of it actually happening, of Steven Taylor being the top scorer. There is a probability of >0%, but absolutely no real chance of it actually happening, of Diego Costa signing for Arsenal for free. You're a lunatic if you live your life by the rule that if there is a statistical possibility of >0% of something happening then live in the hope it might just happen, even if it is 1 in 1 trillion... but hey ho, if it does actually give you hope then that's good for you. Just get off your high horse calling certain people who don't live in a fantasy world 'non-fans'.

 

[No Kane No Gain]

What's the betting we finish 4th, you guys go out of the groups and finish 3rd and Italy overtake us in the rankings taking the 4th CL spot away?

 

[BrunelGooner]

I'm not actually being that optimistic. I'm just saying we CAN win it. ..and If we get past the groups stages our odds increase considerably.(being a knock-out tournament)

This is such a circular argument. We get past the group stages and our odds increase significantly...yet we have been knocked out in the last 16 in the last 5 years in a row. Then it's back to square one.

It is statistically possible. Weaker teams have done so in the past.

Within the last 10 years, they have not. And we haven't either. In fact, we never have. So although, by definition, it is statistically possible, it is highly unlikely in the current circumstances. As I've said - we have had stronger squads in the past, yet have still been knocked out by weaker teams, so what makes you so sure we can overcome the odds this time around if we could not do it before and have shown no significant signs of improvement?

 

[BrunelGooner]

So what about Bournemouth, Southampton, Aston Villa, Stoke, Swansea - should they bother playing in the Premierleague?.. I mean after all there's very little point if they are not gonna win it.

And I know this wasn't directed at me, but it's an irrelevant comment. You're essentially comparing a 38-match campaign with a knockout cup competition. Those teams know they have very little chance of winning the Premier League but they have the intention of improving their team each year and try to better the position that they finished in previously. In stark contrast to Arsenal, who seem to remain content with keeping the status quo and are unwilling to bolster their team at all.

 

[lazarus20000]

We have been knocked out in the last 16 five years in a row. Those four are better than us, and so are PSG,Chelsea,Atletico Madrid and Manchester City. So that's eight teams who have better players and managers than us, and as last season proved, even teams like Monaco can knock out our sorry bunch.

You use Liverpool as an example but back than the CL was not even as strong as it is today, and we have regressed since than. Our chances of winning the CL with Wenger as manager is simply not going to happen, you are just utterly utterly deluded if you even think we have an outside chance. Also you could argue that only that Liverpool team of 2005 was weaker than ours, and that is what one example in 20 years? And please do not mention Porto, they had the likes of Deco and Carvahlo as well as a brilliant tactical manager.

So even if our team is not the strongest, we could even potentially win it if we had a brilliant manager who could do something against odds and organise his team to beat teams with better players like Simeone, but no, we have Wenger. So forget it.

You have hit it on the head here. It will always be a tall order to match the quality of teams like Barca, Real or Bayern, but the equalizer is having a brilliant manager. Wenger for all that he has done, does not excel in the tactical department, and that is clear to see. Only way I can see Wenger realistically challenging for the CL title is if he took over one of the three big clubs.

Saying that, he/we have a realistic chance of winning the league, and in my opinion, should be the main thing we should concentrate on. Of course, we want to get out of the group stages and grab that CL money of course...

 

[PowerSpurs]

What's the betting we finish 4th, you guys go out of the groups and finish 3rd and Italy overtake us in the rankings taking the 4th CL spot away?

Fortunately this can't happen: the 4 places are guaranteed for 2016/17. Its the 2017/18 places that are at risk....

 

[TenG]

We've been regressing in the Champs League for 5 years now. We've been lucky in getting weak groups, but recent years we have been dropping points against mid-ranked teams, and now we are genuinely among the lower end of these mid-ranked teams, hence why we now struggle against Olypiakos etc. I could accept the eraly failures in the CL back in the 90s because at least then the club had aspirations to do better, but noiw there is now genuine aspiration or drive to compete. The likes of Barca, Real etc probably hope to get drawn Arsenal in the knock-outs - we're seen as a easier tie. That's where we are in Europe.

 

[Diego]

We've been regressing in the Champs League for 5 years now. We've been lucky in getting weak groups, but recent years we have been dropping points against mid-ranked teams, and now we are genuinely among the lower end of these mid-ranked teams, hence why we now struggle against Olypiakos etc. I could accept the eraly failures in the CL back in the 90s because at least then the club had aspirations to do better, but noiw there is now genuine aspiration or drive to compete. The likes of Barca, Real etc probably hope to get drawn Arsenal in the knock-outs - we're seen as a easier tie. That's where we are in Europe.

Of course it is, and you need to get used to that fact.
You have no devine right to go further than you do and are not the only English club to fail to live up to the hype in the last ten years. Think yourselves lucky to get the chance to try, there are 16 other clubs who would love that chance.

 

[AndyI]

Bottom Line is that as Arsenal could win the champion league, as can every single team still in it.

However, it's very very very unlikely as shown by the current odds, recent experience and fact there are a lot of better teams in the competition:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

And as for argument that "weaker teams than us have won it" Not for a long long time they haven't. The cream always rises to the top, as shown by fact that the truly elite teams in Europe are serial semi finalists recently.

 

[Big Ern]

If Arsene wants the EPL then i makes sense to sacrifice the CL, as it's those post CL dropped points matches that take their toll, that said, it doesn't make sense to leave your Keeper out, FA cup and league cup (or whatever it's called this season) yeah, but CL?

 

[Smirnoffpriest]

If Arsene wants the EPL then i makes sense to sacrifice the CL, as it's those post CL dropped points matches that take their toll, that said, it doesn't make sense to leave your Keeper out, FA cup and league cup (or whatever it's called this season) yeah, but CL?

My one issue with this thread, and this comment is that it's a big risk as, say for example we do (or continue to do) disastrously in the CL and crash out this season, but just miss out on the PL then we'll need to attract W/C players next season to push on (regardless of who is manager), yet they will be put off by our piss poor performance in even getting out of the group, and still not winning anything the season before. If we win the league on the other hand, then great (I'd be loving it as the best achievement in a long, long time) and we'd be able to attract the cream of Europe/World, but if we miss out and crash out early in the CL? We may struggle to push on - especially with the lost revenue.

Just my opinion