Where We Are

Terrorwit said:
Can't comment on the Prem before we got here because I never paid any attention to it....

....but since we've been here it's always been tight at this stage, you don't get to see who's really in the **** until about March I reckon. There follows a desperate dogfight between about 6/7 clubs during which some will get some vital wins and others don't.

It's ultra competive outside the top 7, we're all aiming to get to 40 points ASAP.
There may only be 4 points between us and a few places but trust me all that matters is how many points you get from the first 19 games. That tells you where you are headed and whether you need to improve.

We've got 18 points from 14 games.
That tells me we are on course for a 48 (ish) points finish IF we can maintain that points per game ratio.
We've got Hull and Norwich next. 2 winnable games, and we will try to win them. I'd be surprised if we get less than 4 points from those 2, hoping for 6 obviously.
That will put us on 22-24 points from 16 games with Everton, Chelsea and Villa to go to the half-way mark. We should be on 25+ points after 19 games.
Putting us on course for a 50point finish (usually a top 10 finish)....and we haven't even hit top form or have any strikers fit! This is why I and many other Jacks aren't particularly worried about us.

That's not to say we'll get 50+ points.
The second half of the season is tougher for the smaller clubs with less deep (in terms of quality) squads....but I'd be very surprised if we scored less than 45points.

Cardiff have 14 points from 14 games. On course for 38 points. Often relegation, sometimes enough though. This is after having as good a start as you could have hoped for!
You have Palace away then West Brom at home. You've got to try and win these games and get your average up because around the corner is;
Liverpool (a), Southampton (h), Sunderland (h & already scrapping for their lives), Arsenal (a), West Ham (h and will put everyone behind the ball for the draw), Man City (a) and Man Utd (a).

Come the beginning of February, if you don't win at least 2 games between now and then, you are going to be behind the 1 point a game average necessary for even 38 points.
Yet Malky is sending you out for draws, both home and away.

In February/March the pressure is going to be on you big time. It will be sink or swim, and I've seen nothing from you so far to suggest you are capable of going out and beating the teams around you when you need to....simply, no goals. It's possible you'll keep getting the odd winner from a set piece but I wouldn't like to bet on it.
Malky has to be brave and go and get Premiership survival just like all your competitors will be trying for.....and I can't see Tan handing over another tump of cash in January after allowing him to spend £30m and not even trying to go and win a game of football so far.
He's made his displeasure pretty clear it seems to me.
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This is very correct and also worrying. If you look at our home games to which you refer though, 5 of the 7 have been against Man City, Everton, Tottenham, Man Utd, and Arsenal. That policy/tactic was spot on against teams like that and the rewards have justified it.

Let's turn this around on its' head from discussing the probable relegation candidates for a minute.

Accepting that anyone can succumb to the pressure in the last couple of months of a Premier season, who do you see from Villa down in the table that are more or less nailed on (in your own opinions of course) to actually stay up?

I'll go for three. Villa, Swansea and West Ham - the rest are as likely to go down as each other at this stage.
 
I'd put money on Sunderland, Palace, and West ham to go down, though Norwich, Stoke, and West Brom could be in the mix at end of season!...........<ok>
 
aswan_dam said:
West Ham nailed on to stay up given where they are now? That's a brave prediction!
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I honestly think so. Allardyce has got some good players there, but they need a frontman to finish off some excellent approach play.

If and when they get Carroll back from his long layoff, they'll start winning games against good opposition other than having to rely on beating likes of Fulham for instance.
 
Carroll the saviour!.............................<laugh>




Don't rate big Sam, and I see West Ham fading...............<cheers>
 
Cardiff are doing just as expected imo. Their goal for this season is to finish out of the bottom three and that would be a good season. They are short on quality but that is to be expected in their debut season and should they survive they will then know what players they need for a better season next time. It is much the same for us really as it is also our debut season for competing in the prem and europe and again its about survival and not trying to finish better than last season like most of us thought we would do before the season started, we have learned that we are having trouble in consistency and that is due to too many games and too few players. survival is not guaranteed I know but i think the odds are in our favour as one of the better sides. i also think cardiff will survive if they strengthen in january..
 
Dai - from what I've seen, and not just in our last game against them, Stoke are a pretty dire outfit for an established Prem side. I'll take them to struggle along with Hull who for all the enthusiasm of Bruce, are punching well above their weight.

Your game against them Monday could restart their downward spiral after that surprising win over Liverpool - (what happened there mate. <laugh>)

Palace and Sunderland have a lot to do to turn their seasons around even with new managers. I think these four teams will be battling out to stay up come the last few weeks. I'd have to say that we also have a lot to do to stay out of it.
 
sparkey you may well be right but i can guarantee you that you will find the second half of the season much harder than the first half and should any of us be at the bottom during the final push at the business end then you will see some very strange scores as everyone goes for broke to miss the drop...Its fun to watch if you are safe but a squeaky bum time if you are still in the mix....we have done well so far and never been in that situation...
 
Oldsparkey said:
I honestly think so. Allardyce has got some good players there, but they need a frontman to finish off some excellent approach play.

If and when they get Carroll back from his long layoff, they'll start winning games against good opposition other than having to rely on beating likes of Fulham for instance.
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I think two teams have been relegated from the Prem under Big Al, it could be a good omen for your club.
 
ProjectVRD said:
I think two teams have been relegated from the Prem under Big Al, it could be a good omen for your club.
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I can't recollect Big Sam taking anyone down from the Prem whilst he was with them, let alone two clubs. Perhaps you can tell us who they were.

I know he's previously managed Bolton, Newcastle and Blackburn in the Prem with varying degrees of success, but none were relegated whilst he was there, and he took West Ham up from the Championship.

Personally, I don't particlarly like the guy having a very high opinion of himself as a manager in the past, but that doesn't make his side more likely to go down than stay up. I think West ham are far more likely to stay up than anyone else in the bottom 8.
 
It's funny. I was thinking about how I feel about our performances this season. I'm a bit nonplussed at times.
Then I looked at the table and thought about how many points we have.
In our first season in the Prem, I remember saying I'd be happy if we had 20 points by New Years Day. We achieved it and (after seeing the points total of the relegated teams at the end of the season) we were safe by the middle of March.
If we beat Hull on Monday, we will have 21 points by 9th Dec. I still think survival is our top, of not only, priority.

Then we look at the boys up the road. 14 points with West Brom, Liverpool and Southampton being the more difficult of the games coming up before New Years. If Sunderland pick up the pace it could be a very difficult christmas period. A few new managers and injected impetus in there.
I'd say it really could be a Tale of Two Cities...
 
For me Cardiff have to be more adventurous. They simply do not score enough goals. When swans go 1 down I'm still confident we can turn it around and win the game. I wouldn't necessarily say the same for Cardiff.
There are 4 points between us at the moment but 4 points in the premier league is actually quite hard to close.
Stoke in their first season relied heavily on set pieces and that Rory delap throw, but I just feel that the more accustome that other teams become of Cardiffs set plays, the less goals you are going to score from them. Where do the goals come from then?
I understand you have Cornelius to come back but does he even have a prolific record? I feel a lot of pressure and expectation is going to be put on his head to get the majority of the teams goals. It can be quite a bit for a youngster to take.

Just checked aswell, Cardiff have won 1 match in the last nine. And that game was against ourselves in the derby where form more often than not goes out the window. The game you won before that was back in September.
The only thing that's going to change your form is goals and I feel that with malky at the helm then that is going to be hard to come by.
 
Still prefer Mutch in your team ahead of Bony after today Sparkey? That's what you said wasn't it? Didn't think 'much' of his display or your team's actually.

<laugh>
 
Knackeredjack said:
Still prefer Mutch in your team ahead of Bony after today Sparkey? That's what you said wasn't it? Didn't think 'much' of his display or your team's actually.

<laugh>
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Now now knackerd, let's keep this thread sensible please.
 
Oldsparkey said:
I can't recollect Big Sam taking anyone down from the Prem whilst he was with them, let alone two clubs. Perhaps you can tell us who they were.

I know he's previously managed Bolton, Newcastle and Blackburn in the Prem with varying degrees of success, but none were relegated whilst he was there, and he took West Ham up from the Championship.

Personally, I don't particlarly like the guy having a very high opinion of himself as a manager in the past, but that doesn't make his side more likely to go down than stay up. I think West ham are far more likely to stay up than anyone else in the bottom 8.
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Your right, he hasn't been in charge of a Prem team that got relegated but he has bee sacked multiple times at teams that later in the season dropped a division. He also led West Brom to their lowest league position. Cardiff shouldn't go for the guy and his so called reputation as being a safe bet comes from his time at Bolton.
 
swans-m said:
Now now knackerd, let's keep this thread sensible please.
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Just "gentle banter" as Sparkey would say. I'd just be interested if he raises his head, that's all. He's made sweeping statements about how great Mutch is and how poor Bony is, even so far as saying he'd prefer the former in his team "any day" so it's a fair point.
 
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