Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 19th. August 2020
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Kameko moved in like he was going to be the biggest danger. Lord North and Magical came under pressure before him but although he was second at one stage and I had a potential forecast, he simply didn't stay and faded to fourth. You could see his stride shortening and although he probably won a pretty poor Guineas, I think that Balding has placed the horse poorly this season.
The Derby was a mistake with Kameko and it shows how poor that race was that the Balding horse managed 4th. If Andrew Balding had his time again I am sure he would have kept Kameko at a mile for the remainder of the season following his Guineas win. I suppose that is the difference between good trainers and great ones who have that instinct to know what is best for their horses. I suppose the QE II and Palace Pier is next on the agenda for Kameko.
Magical yet again comes up short when she isn't a short price against inferior horses. Perhaps Enable HAS stopped her from winning more Group 1 races but they would have been more weak Group 1 races where she was odds-on. A solid run again from a lovely filly but she is not quite top drawer.
I had my doubts about Lord North coming in. A stunning win last time but amounted to little more than perhaps just catching Addeybb on an off day and he would have been a huge price today based on his short head win from the bitterly disappointing Elarqam earlier in the season.
Rose Of Kildare didn't belong in this race, Admirable bargain buy that she was, she was never going to have the class to harass Ghayyiath. It was like seeing Charlie Magri gloving up to in against Muhammed Ali.
The Derby was a mistake with Kameko and it shows how poor that race was that the Balding horse managed 4th. If Andrew Balding had his time again I am sure he would have kept Kameko at a mile for the remainder of the season following his Guineas win. I suppose that is the difference between good trainers and great ones who have that instinct to know what is best for their horses. I suppose the QE II and Palace Pier is next on the agenda for Kameko.
Magical yet again comes up short when she isn't a short price against inferior horses. Perhaps Enable HAS stopped her from winning more Group 1 races but they would have been more weak Group 1 races where she was odds-on. A solid run again from a lovely filly but she is not quite top drawer.
I had my doubts about Lord North coming in. A stunning win last time but amounted to little more than perhaps just catching Addeybb on an off day and he would have been a huge price today based on his short head win from the bitterly disappointing Elarqam earlier in the season.
Rose Of Kildare didn't belong in this race, Admirable bargain buy that she was, she was never going to have the class to harass Ghayyiath. It was like seeing Charlie Magri gloving up to in against Muhammed Ali.
I very much doubt anyone will have any excuses for any of the beaten horses. Ghaiyyath ran them into the ground. Even Lord North's known turn of foot couldn't come into operation, although he did run on at the finish. Excellent demonstration of how to make sure you win
I see Mogul is in the Voltigeur at York this week. He was available at 3/1 earlier, with the John Gosden trained Darain backed into the favourite spot.
The expensive brother of Too Darn Hot started well enough in a Class 5 Novice but surprisingly stayed at the same level next time and was workmanlike in producing a performance that had to be rated slightly lower than his first effort. His Official Rating of 96 seemed generous enough in the circumstances and he is facing proper horses now, if not the most inspiring vintage.
Mogul is 2/1 favourite now, with part of his original odds being whether he would be the one from the O'Brien yard to come over and he is the sole representative from Aidan's yard. Mogul is officially 13 lbs higher than Darain on 109 but he also has a lot more experience of racing and the Gosden horse will have learned very little from a second outing in a Class 5 Novice race.
William Haggas's Roberto Escobarr put in an improved and promising performance in putting previous winners to the sword by 4 lengths last time but Brentford Hope and others have disappointed from that race since. I would question whether the son of Galileo should really be 6 lbs lower than Darain, given that his Class 5 Novice win was better looking to me than the one the Gosden colt won but he's surely on a par at least with the 2nd Fav and is more than double the odds.
Funnily enough, English King's old sparring partner Berkshire Rocco is in the Voltigeur but as the complete outsider on some lists at 14/1, with Juan Elcano the same price with some firms.
Highland Chief and Subjectivist will lock horns with Mogul again, after being second and third to him last time. Highland Chief is four times the price of Mogul, with only three parts of a length to find and Mark Johnston's improver Subjectivist was a further three parts of a length away in third. Personally speaking I find it hard to follow any Johnston horse with 100% expectation that they will run the same race again but he did put it up to them for a long way at Goodwood.
For me, Pyledriver might be the bet in the Voltigeur. He was no factor in the Derby but he wouldn't be the first horse not to give their form at Epsom. If we rewind to the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot we see Pyledriver winning the Group 2 contest by two lengths, with Mogul only 4th when a shade of odds on. It was said that Mogul badly needed that race but he needs to find five lengths from that race to beat Pyledriver now. The Muir trained colt has only run twice at the 12F trip and has won one, so if we forgive the Derby effort he must have some chance, even if he does have to concede 3 lbs, because his 110 rating is 1 lb higher than Mogul on 109. Given that Mogul is 2/1 and Pyledriver 12/1, I would much rather play at the bigger odds for an interest.
Looking at the Voltigeur field you could only really conclude that the colts all being rated 110 or less is an indication that none of them are Arc prospects. Darian is unbeaten but is 3/1 because he is trained by Gosden and cost a Gazillion at the sales. Two Class 5 Novices and now going to Group 2 seems to be a crazy bit of pricing up.
I'll forgive Pyledriver his poor show at Epsom and hope he can bounce back.
2.45 York Pyledriver 12/1
Hopefully doesn't run like he is suffering from piles or I'll need the Anusol myself
"2.45 York Pyledriver 12/1"
Great call, Grendel, and fine analysis too. Bravo!
They will probably have to raise Pyledriver's official rating towards that of the leading 3YO colts after that showing. He conceded the 3 lbs penalty easily. That said, he beat a modest looking bunch.
Cut to 5/1 and 6/1 for The St Leger, you could see why in an uninspiring list for the Classic. The jockey seemed to feel the horse has enough speed to be effective at 10F as well as 12F and you wouldn't be sure they would want to take him over a new trip when he seems on the up at a mile and a half.
Some might laugh at Pyledriver as an Arc player but Mogul is 16/1 for that with William Hill and the Muir horse must surely hold a better chance than that. If he were mine I would be thinking of an Arc trial in France as the next move, as you wouldn't want many more runs this season I would think.
Ghayyiath generally 5/1 and 6/1 for the Arc now but I don't think a lot really changed today. We knew he was good but we thought that last season and the possibility of the same scenario exists this year. He is a horse you would need to wait and see with regards to the ground.
I thought Pyledriver had a good chance at a price today but never expected that he would win like he did. Nobody bid on him at £10,000 back in the day and I didn't see much love for him this morning. Mogul was napped in plenty of places but I have never seen it with that colt. Too much too soon for Darain and Roberto Escobarr and I doubt either will go to the St Leger. Berkshire Rocco ran a solid enough race given that he shapes like further would help him.
Cut to 5/1 and 6/1 for The St Leger, you could see why in an uninspiring list for the Classic. The jockey seemed to feel the horse has enough speed to be effective at 10F as well as 12F and you wouldn't be sure they would want to take him over a new trip when he seems on the up at a mile and a half.
Some might laugh at Pyledriver as an Arc player but Mogul is 16/1 for that with William Hill and the Muir horse must surely hold a better chance than that. If he were mine I would be thinking of an Arc trial in France as the next move, as you wouldn't want many more runs this season I would think.
Ghayyiath generally 5/1 and 6/1 for the Arc now but I don't think a lot really changed today. We knew he was good but we thought that last season and the possibility of the same scenario exists this year. He is a horse you would need to wait and see with regards to the ground.
I thought Pyledriver had a good chance at a price today but never expected that he would win like he did. Nobody bid on him at £10,000 back in the day and I didn't see much love for him this morning. Mogul was napped in plenty of places but I have never seen it with that colt. Too much too soon for Darain and Roberto Escobarr and I doubt either will go to the St Leger. Berkshire Rocco ran a solid enough race given that he shapes like further would help him.
I cannot fault the performance today by Ghaiyyath. He was there to be shot at and nobody was good enough and if they choose to stick to ten furlongs, only really soft ground is going to stop him.
Good grounds for the handicapper marking him up for this as reliable yardstick Magical ran her race but never got close to him with her allowance. Lord North just plugged on without ever featuring and the two three year olds continued the underwhelming record of most of their generation against their elders.
It will be interesting to see whether they decide to go to Longchamp again as he will find it difficult to dominate and last year he just ended up as a pacemaker, who had emptied by the turn to the straight. Ultimately, some of us would argue, he cost Enable the race because she sat too close to him (easy with hindsight to blame Frankie) while the winner settled at the back.
Good grounds for the handicapper marking him up for this as reliable yardstick Magical ran her race but never got close to him with her allowance. Lord North just plugged on without ever featuring and the two three year olds continued the underwhelming record of most of their generation against their elders.
It will be interesting to see whether they decide to go to Longchamp again as he will find it difficult to dominate and last year he just ended up as a pacemaker, who had emptied by the turn to the straight. Ultimately, some of us would argue, he cost Enable the race because she sat too close to him (easy with hindsight to blame Frankie) while the winner settled at the back.
Pyledriver has been introduced to the Arc De Triomphe betting. You can get 40/1 with Paddy Power and some other firms. That's generally four times the odds of Gosden's Mishriff, who I am not convinced would be as suited by 12F as the Muir colt.
The current Arc list can be cut through with a Samurai sword in terms of no-hopers and unlikely runners.
Today's winning trainer later said:-
"We'll go back and talk. We are in the Grand Prix de Paris. The Leger has been on the cards, but people are saying we should now go for the Arc.
"He didn't look like he was stopping today, but then Martin said today he's got loads of gears, and horses with gears normally don't just stay and stay.
"It's a lovely problem to have - this is where we want to be."
The current Arc list can be cut through with a Samurai sword in terms of no-hopers and unlikely runners.
Today's winning trainer later said:-
"We'll go back and talk. We are in the Grand Prix de Paris. The Leger has been on the cards, but people are saying we should now go for the Arc.
"He didn't look like he was stopping today, but then Martin said today he's got loads of gears, and horses with gears normally don't just stay and stay.
"It's a lovely problem to have - this is where we want to be."
Cor blimey I bet it was bleak on that hill above Bath today. One thing that wasn’t gloomy though was seeing the Blake barn secure their first victory since lockdown earlier on. ‘Tis Fantastic’, I hollered, as the horse galloped past the Stratford winning post.
Still enough ramblings from me just wanted to say that I hope everyone is well and coping fine in these unprecedented times. Similar sentiments I pass on to everyone’s moles / insiders / contacts (delete as appropriate). Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more… Personally. I’ve had to furlough some of my regiment including, regrettable, one of Lieutenant Henderson’s Privates. The great man, I understand, was furious with this decision but needs must, I say, needs must.
Anyway, take care and cheerio for now…
Still enough ramblings from me just wanted to say that I hope everyone is well and coping fine in these unprecedented times. Similar sentiments I pass on to everyone’s moles / insiders / contacts (delete as appropriate). Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more… Personally. I’ve had to furlough some of my regiment including, regrettable, one of Lieutenant Henderson’s Privates. The great man, I understand, was furious with this decision but needs must, I say, needs must.
Anyway, take care and cheerio for now…
Spot on Grendel..I see Mogul is in the Voltigeur at York this week. He was available at 3/1 earlier, with the John Gosden trained Darain backed into the favourite spot.
The expensive brother of Too Darn Hot started well enough in a Class 5 Novice but surprisingly stayed at the same level next time and was workmanlike in producing a performance that had to be rated slightly lower than his first effort. His Official Rating of 96 seemed generous enough in the circumstances and he is facing proper horses now, if not the most inspiring vintage.
Mogul is 2/1 favourite now, with part of his original odds being whether he would be the one from the O'Brien yard to come over and he is the sole representative from Aidan's yard. Mogul is officially 13 lbs higher than Darain on 109 but he also has a lot more experience of racing and the Gosden horse will have learned very little from a second outing in a Class 5 Novice race.
William Haggas's Roberto Escobarr put in an improved and promising performance in putting previous winners to the sword by 4 lengths last time but Brentford Hope and others have disappointed from that race since. I would question whether the son of Galileo should really be 6 lbs lower than Darain, given that his Class 5 Novice win was better looking to me than the one the Gosden colt won but he's surely on a par at least with the 2nd Fav and is more than double the odds.
Funnily enough, English King's old sparring partner Berkshire Rocco is in the Voltigeur but as the complete outsider on some lists at 14/1, with Juan Elcano the same price with some firms.
Highland Chief and Subjectivist will lock horns with Mogul again, after being second and third to him last time. Highland Chief is four times the price of Mogul, with only three parts of a length to find and Mark Johnston's improver Subjectivist was a further three parts of a length away in third. Personally speaking I find it hard to follow any Johnston horse with 100% expectation that they will run the same race again but he did put it up to them for a long way at Goodwood.
For me, Pyledriver might be the bet in the Voltigeur. He was no factor in the Derby but he wouldn't be the first horse not to give their form at Epsom. If we rewind to the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot we see Pyledriver winning the Group 2 contest by two lengths, with Mogul only 4th when a shade of odds on. It was said that Mogul badly needed that race but he needs to find five lengths from that race to beat Pyledriver now. The Muir trained colt has only run twice at the 12F trip and has won one, so if we forgive the Derby effort he must have some chance, even if he does have to concede 3 lbs, because his 110 rating is 1 lb higher than Mogul on 109. Given that Mogul is 2/1 and Pyledriver 12/1, I would much rather play at the bigger odds for an interest.
Looking at the Voltigeur field you could only really conclude that the colts all being rated 110 or less is an indication that none of them are Arc prospects. Darian is unbeaten but is 3/1 because he is trained by Gosden and cost a Gazillion at the sales. Two Class 5 Novices and now going to Group 2 seems to be a crazy bit of pricing up.
I'll forgive Pyledriver his poor show at Epsom and hope he can bounce back.
2.45 York Pyledriver 12/1
Hopefully doesn't run like he is suffering from piles or I'll need the Anusol myself
This could get costly but Tomorrow is the day that Ghaiyyath gets found (this year anyway) and the minute he gets hassled on the lead and things don’t go his way he won’t like it! And there are a couple of scenarios I can see happening. First of all I was steaming at Aidan for not sending in a pacemaker but looking at it he won’t need one. The key horse being Rose of Kildare she is your typical mark Johnson horse who gets better with every race and the Change of tactics in the Musidora going from pillar to post (practically anyway) really bought the best out of her. Fanning I Reckon will be looking to the same again. And yes she may struggle to keep up with Ghaiyyath, however she will be constantly pestering and importantly not allowing Buick that breather to allow him to kick in again. With Ryan getting magical very nicely Settled In begind those and start to make some significant headway 4f with Ryan not really moving 2f out Buick starts to get lower on the saddle and she serves it up to him 1f out they battle and out then asserts her dominance towards the line. With lord north just missing out on second to Ghaiyyath and Kameko in behind (because this bunch of 3yos colts arnt really anything special)
the other scenario and imo this will be the most likely one will be Magical will intend to sit behind Ghaiyyath and really use her stamina to some good use,with Rose Of Kildare being unable to go the pace at all and really lacking in any kind of quality. Ryan will just be snapping at Buicks heels or not far off anuwuab again not allowing William that breather. Again move up to him at the 2f marker and really battle it out will be going hammer and tongues with Magicals stamina winning her the race!! The only danger in this will be setting It up for a horse like Lord North who will be more than happy to sit out the back Get settled and if he is within a couple of lengths come the 1f marker and they have gone hard at the front all the way I can see him really using turn of foot and make some serious challenge and Just pick off the leaders.
Howver Ghayyaith will get beat this is his biggest test this year. Enable, Stradivarius werent fit with their races being stepping stones to other ones. Japan takes about 10 races to get fit (as proven last year) granted he is a better horse than AVD and Defoe wasn’t the same horse this year before we Sadly lost him. Magical the fact they bought her back from being a broodmare tells you something and she’s looked even better at this year don’t forget if it wasn’t for enable she would be breeders cup , an eclipse, a Yorkshire oaks winner. She would be going down as one of Aidans best mares he’s had
Or the jockeys may just do what they did in the eclipse and just wrap the race up and put a big bow on it and just give it to Buick. But if he does win ( I will take him again) He will have to go down as a serious player in the Arc
well I got it wrong
again I will be taking him on again but not till arc day