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Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Aug 18, 2020.
Karamoko B Hughes only ride of the day
I agree Lord North will be the one to take on Ghaiyyath if it gets softish. With fast ground I doubt anything would catch him over 10f (or even 12f) but he is vulnerable if there is an "s" in the ground description
On the Great Voltiguer, if Mogul wins it will, of course, have been obvious. But I don't take much notice of comments like "two easy wins in Mickey Mouse races leave him plenty more to find than his odds suggest". Factually correct of course and not trying to be critical in any way. It's just that there are 2 lightly raced, beautifully bred colts, with excellent trainers and very good jockeys, both horses having loads of scope. To me, what they beat whilst still very immature means nothing. What counts is how good they are; not what they beat and by how far. We will find out today how good they are. Hopefully, one of them will win impressively to make the rest of the season and (even more so) next season more exciting
First day of York - to get over work boredom done an each way lucky 31
1.45 Jonah Jones
2.45 Juan Elcano
3.45 Blakeney Point
4.20 Mighty Spirit
4.50 Cobweb Corner
When I stated that Lord North will not be bothered if it rains, I was not intending to imply that he had to have rain. Whilst his one bad career performance was on quick ground at Sandown, he followed it up with a second on quick ground at Ascot. He is a horse whose improvement with each race is clearly visible in the form book: with each step up in class has come improved performance.
As for the two runners in the Great Voltiguer, they may well be capable of better than the bare form that they have exhibited to date. I bet on form that is actually in evidence, so (what I consider) short prices about horses that only have potential is a quick route to the poorhouse, following all the ones who turn potential into defeats. If Darain wins it will be favourite for the St Leger by three o’clock because of his trainer’s record in the race and he will have converted potential into evidence of improvement.
Praise of Shadows ew
Monsieur Lambrays - Just In Time ew
Good luck all
Pyledriver was involved in a lot of scrimmaging in the Derby. He was shuffled back through the pack to almost last place. He is in a hopeless position thereafter but does keep to his task well enough in the closing stages and he finishes half a length behind Highland Chief. I believe the interference Pyledriver encountered amounted to a lot more than the margin between the two and trainer William Muir said that his colt's race was pretty much over after 3 furlongs in the Derby due to being "knocked over" Originally the trainer had nominated a German group 1 for Pyledriver because he didn't like the idea of trying to give English King 3 lbs in the Voltigeur but no doubt seeing English King since then he felt today's target was doable. I can see the thinking with Highland Chief but I felt Pyledriver was less exposed.
With the rain, I would be concerned for Darain. There is talk of the Leger for him but connections disagree. In fact they said 10F may be as far as he wants but that they would give 12F a go. Enough to find to win this anyway, I would be worried by connections comments regarding the trip. He seems weak in the betting.
Berkshire Rocco is well supported after being the rank outsider in some lists when betting opened. He was second to subsequent Irish Derby winner Santiago in the Queens Vase and that horse is clear favourite for the St Leger. I would be worried that this 12F at York may not suit as well as the 14F at Ascot did.
Just to clarify Darain's trip. John Gosden has said today is a fact finding mission regarding that, however Qatar Racing's David Redvers said:-
"I think we would have ideally liked to run him over 10 furlongs again, but there wasn't really a suitable race, so we're going to try 12," said Redvers.
"We are guided by what Mr Gosden wants to do. I think we're all very excited to see him run and we'll have a better idea of where he fits in afterwards. "I have an inkling 10 furlongs might be his ideal trip, but let's see."
I think Darain would need to thrash his field to oust Santiago at the front of the St Leger betting.
When it comes to weighing up the ability and prospects of an Attwater horse, I'd always defer to Stick. Since he hasn't showed so far today, I'm assuming that it's siesta time around Sevilla, and he may not be at his best. If he does come on with a different view from mine, your wallet would probably prefer you to listen to him rather than to me.
That said, Cappananty Con (4.30 Bath) does appear to have a very fair chance against this opposition. He's had about fifty races so far, and you wouldn't think he was getting any better, but his last couple of runs do suggest that he's running to something near the best of his (modest) ability. Admittedly, all his best form has been on AW (only won once on turf, but that was here), but the softening ground here today should help him and act against some of those above him in the betting. Joey Haynes has ridden him before, which is a help.
I'm pleased to see that the stalls are in the centre. The conventional wisdom at Bath is that 'low numbers are best up to a mile', but I don't think that's an ironclad rule (Nass attends Bath regularly, and may have a view). From what I can see, on the rare occasions that the ground does get soft(ish), it's an advantage to come over the top on the outside, and horses that stick to the inside rail regularly get caught inside the last 300 yards.
I've been doing a little morning retail therapy in the Tattenham Corner shopping centre (sic), and a couple of local derelicts suggest to me that the stable expect him to go pretty close. About 4-1 as I post (a bit bigger mid-morning). Good luck.
No strong views on York - I'll be watching but not betting. If someone gave me a freebie, I'd probably take Magical in the Juddmonte - I don't share the view that she's just a bully who beats up second-raters, and I've an uneasy feeling that the Eclipse form is misleading and the favourite might be too short.
Very well done
2.45 York Pyledriver 12/1
Hopefully doesn't run like he is suffering from piles or I'll need the Anusol myself [/QUOTE]
Well done Grendel
Well no excitement from the 2 lightly raised ones. Pretty crap really. What a demolition job by Piledriver though
One down, one to go. Can't take any credit for the lay because I thought one of the two lesser exposed colts would win and they both ran like donkeys
No, I realised that QM. I assumed you thought, as I do, that if the ground softens it will inconvenience Ghaiyyath more than it will Lord North
No excuses Highland Chief was beaten by a better horse on the day - perhaps we should have done a forecast,one thing is for sure ignore Derby form it ain't worth the paper it's written on.
Brilliant pick with Pyledriver. Well done!
Just thinking. Enable ran second to Ghaiyyath whilst not fit and Gosden runs Lord North. He must have a good idea how he stands with Lord North
No chance. He's a race horse
Denman of the flat - The Tank
Brilliant for Big G ...... *waits for the Kameko excuses*