Wednesday 10th October Daily Thread

  • Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
  • Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!
Benvenuto Cellini

Benvenuto Cellini

1 of the top judges in Europe
Jun 12, 2012
47,068
58,098
113
Nottingham 4.00 Spirit Of The Law 13/2

Likeable horse, down a few pounds since his last win and back on soft ground, he is the best horse in the race and with Buick booked id be disappointed if he didnt go close.
 
Going to try and keep these short.

3.10 Ludlow

Battlecry 11/1 NAP

Given Nigel Twiston-Davies incredible form over the past couple of weeks (7-17), I think this battle hardened 11 year old looks rather overpriced. A very talented chaser in his peak, Battlecry is still a pretty decent animal in the latter part of his career and I think he'll be fully wound up on the back of his 112 day break when last seen falling at Worcester in June. Despite not being at his best in his last 3 starts this year (May/June), he put up some really decent efforts in defeat off only a 1lb lower mark including a 0.5L defeat in a more competitive race in April at Cheltenham. He's not the easiest horse to win with having scored in only 2 of his 37 chasing starts to date but he is very consistent having finished placed a further 18 times in this sphere so he generally gives a very good run for money. His last win came in November last year off a 6lb lower mark in easy fashion and Cheltenham and a big positive was that it came under today's 7lb claimer Mr R Hatch who also put was only beaten by 0.5L on him in one of his other two starts on Battlecry so he clearly gets on very well with this gelding. Furthermore, he's gone well a couple of times around Ludlow before so that's another positive note to his credentials. With his trainer in such good form and now reunited with his last winning jockey, I think 11/1 makes this 11 year old rather overpriced and with conditions seeming perfect today I can see Battlecry being very popular in the market today and hopefully this confidence is rewarded with a well deserved win.

4.50 Towcester

Marked Man 33/1

Its going to take a monumental effort for this now 16 year old to land this contest but given that he won this contest last year off a 10lb higher mark I just think he's an overpriced animal. Last years running of this was nowhere near as competitive than this (6 runners) but he rolled back the years to win by 3L to Overton Lad with the front two drawing a distance away from the others. Overton Lad reopposes tomorrow and is as short as 10/1 in the betting despite being 19lb worse off in the handicap so from purely that perspective he looks a far more appealing betting proposition. He showed that victory was no fluke when running another fantastic race on his next start in November last year when finishing an excellent 1.5L beaten 2nd off a 5lb higher mark of 95 at the track over 2f shorter. That race has a fair bit of substance to it with the winner Pingaro De La Vire scoring off a 6lb higher mark 2 months later whilst the 3rd Hever Road won NTO off the same mark and off 5lb higher in March of this year. This year Marked Man hasn't been at his best in 4 starts but he could easily have been aimed for another go at this race having been successful in it last year. Jake Greenhall, who guided this then 15 year old to victory in this last year, takes the ride on what is his only action of the day so hopefully he's making the trip for a worthwhile ride. If age hasn't caught up with him (a big if!) given that he is 10lb below his mark in this previous renewal and 15lb below an excellent 2nd at the track last year he looks on a very workable mark and with conditions looking ideal it would be absolutely fantastic if this 16 year old could come up with another win in this race.

4.30 Nottingham

Fair Trade 33/1

This is what I wrote for him in the Silver Cambridgeshire 12 days ago and although I'm a bit surprised he's out so quickly afterwards as something looked amiss as he was pulled up when seemingly going fine prior to that at about half but the handicapper has taken another slash to his rating by dropping him 7lb and this Class 4 looks a significantly easier race so I'm going to have a small play. Graham Lee takes the ride and if bouncing back he could make a mockery of this mark (again, big leap of faith!)

ROTO said:
4.35 Newmarket

Fair Trade 66/1

Extremely speculative bet but if he bounces back to form, and that's a big if, then 66s looks a massive price. He was on the verge of being very smart for Dominic Elsworth as a 3 year old as he was thought good enough to contest the 2,000 Guineas (finished a respectable midfield) and he was arguably unlucky not to land a Group 3 when denied a clear run at a crucial time when beaten a length. He had a big injury setback though and was off the track for 18 months before making his reappearance on stable debut for Hughie Morrison when sent off a 7/2 shot in a Listed contest at Kempton in March (Raymond Tooth remained owner). He pulled miles too hard that day but the fact he was sent off such a short price against the Leger winner of the previous year says a fair bit of what this horse used to be capable of. He's had 3 runs since then and he hasn't really been at his best in them either. At Royal Ascot he tried to lead from the front but quickly capitulated. At Haydock on heavy ground he was a small bit better but again he didn't show much at all and on his last start at York he tried to make all in the 18 runner field and pretty much died on his feet and fell back through the field rather quickly to be finished tailed off. Not really the best of reading I know but the handicapper has dropped him a massive 16lb from his last to a mark of 90 and that should surely help an awful lot. He's a horse who is often quite keen and with a strong pace guaranteed and in such a big field I think if he finds some cover it may help him an awful lot. He has to burden top weight of 9-10 but he has the physique of a horse that can carry a big weight and Classic Calori was beaten under the same welter burden last year by a very narrow margin which shows it can be done. In his 3 year old days, he ran well a few times at the course which is a bonus and George Baker is a good jockey booking having a 16% strike rate with Morrison on older horses. Hugely speculative bet but I think that's clearly taken into consideration with the price and although he could easily bomb out and finish nowhere if Hughie has gotten him back to his former self in the 76 days since his last race then he could pop up at a massive price.
Click to expand...
 
Morning, team. How are we??? Good, good. Must say people that there is one that I really, really like today and the old boy runs over the water in the lucky last at Navan:

Dancers Dilemma (6.05 Navan) – this one has obviously had problems in the past as he is touching 8 and to date has only ran 3 times (all in National Hunt flat races) however he has hinted, in the process, at being well, and I do mean well, above average. A very easy winner at Ballinrobe in May he also has exceptional placed form in finishing just behind the likes of Pique Sous (3rd in Festival Bumper and dual winner since) and Loosen My Load (now a 148 rated chaser and 6 time winner since beating today’s selection by just 1.75 lengths). Although this looks a competitive maiden I think Dancers Dilemma stands out and has the capability to excel both today and in the future. Furthermore, his yard won this heat 12 months ago so know what is required.

Good luck, all.
 
Boris '****in' Fenster said:
Nottingham 4.00 Spirit Of The Law 13/2

Likeable horse, down a few pounds since his last win and back on soft ground, he is the best horse in the race and with Buick booked id be disappointed if he didnt go close.
Click to expand...

I quite like an outsider in Stellar Express in this race at 12-1, the horse loves the track and clearly shows well at home as has been tried in better company without showing she merits it fully.

Nottingham 4.00
Stellar Express 12-1
 
A rare foray onto the the daily thread to nominatePresent to You Towester 2.50 @ 20/1 ew.
There are a few high profile entries in this race and I really liked the market leader Hazy Tom over hurdles. However having read his trainers comments on his website this morning (schooling in public?) I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned over. The top 4 in the market have the grand total of one race between them over the bigger obstacles whereas my selection has had 15 goes running pretty creditably on many occasions. Not sure how he qualifies for a beginners chase to be honest but I think his experience may just give him the edge. Then factor in that his trainer has 26% success rate in chases during 2012 (rising to 66% if adding in minor honours) leads me to feel he's worth an ew speculation. Good luck to all.
 
As Roland Rat used to say ........................ "Morning Keviiiiiiiiiiiiin"

I think I've found 4 for a nice littel Lucky 15 today:

2.20 Towcester Goat Castle (6/1) - a ropey individual at best but ran a decent 4th on seasonal reappearance and the step up in trip can finally help him break his duck
2.40 Ludlow Mrs Peachey (11/2) - beat a Henderson hotpot in a Bumper at Bangor in May and makes more appeal than the previous winners in the race.
2.50 Towcester Hazy Tom (11/8) - easily the best of these over hurdles and a very exciting recruit to novice chasing. The booking of Jason Maguire catches the eye.
5.50 Towcester Pair Of Jacks (7/2) - Malcolm Jefferson has had a good start to the season and Pair Of Jacks certainly fits the bill on breeding

Best of British to each and every bally one of you!
 
Nice update from Don McCain on some of his stable stars on Sporting Life:

Peddlers Cross: "He is in super form at home and I plan to run him first in the Ascot Hurdle over 2m4f. That race will tell us whether we go back to 2m for another Champion Hurdle campaign or we step up to 3m and look at Big Buck's. If we do the latter he would be one of the first seriously classy horses the unbeaten champ has faced and, who knows, it could be very exciting." Sky Bet offer 20-1 about Peddlers Cross for the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Overturn: "I've schooled him over fences this summer and he has taken to them very well. I think he could be heading to those proper fences at Carlisle to start off. He is obviously going to be very exciting this season and I expect him to develop into a leading Arkle contender."

Cinders And Ashes: "He has come back even stronger for the summer break and the big target this season will be the Champion Hurdle. Make no mistake, he is right up there with the very best hurdlers. His return race is most likely to be the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, in which we have been very lucky having won it for each of the past two seasons with Peddlers Cross and Overturn. This horse is certainly up to the task and I can't wait to get him back on track."
 
I hope so mate <ok> will have to wait and see.

And yeah I am happy about SJP but still furious about Wonga tbh. I don't think it is right and although it will not matter at all I certainly won't be buying a new shirt with Wonga printed on it. Have been stung by them bastards before when I was out of work and younger. I know it was my own fault but I was desperate for money to go out with my mates all the time and they lent me a big sum even know they knew I wasn't working. Criminal interest rates as well - ******S !!! - learnt my lesson though ;) even though I did borrow money from them once to have a bet when I had a job and got paid the next day <rofl>
 
RV, think you might be right about that Moth. Got to say though that it is a terrible name for a filly.

Meanwhile, people, I hope that we are all feeling inspired after Mr Cameron&#8217;s wonderful, and I do mean wonderful, speech to the Party. Where there was previously darkness he has shone light and where in &#8216;Broken&#8217; Britain earlier today there was despair now there is hope...
 
The naming division at Coolmore have obviously slipped their standards then if in 12 months they have gone from naming fillies Kissed to Moth and Say! Although yesterday a filly triumphed called Mucky Molly (how one earth was that moniker ever allowed) so maybe the way to go is to now back horses with terrible as opposed to lovely names.
 
I quite liked the name of that winner yesterday at Catterick - Iwilsayzisonlyonce by Kyllachy out of Resistance Heroine <laugh>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back