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We’re going to the PL …

Discussion in 'Sunderland' started by Smug in Boots, Apr 16, 2025.

  1. Southern A

    Southern A Well-Known Member

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    If I had to put my mortgage on him either playing or not playing in the playoffs, I'd probably lean to him not playing. Clearly there's a chance, I just think its unlikely.
     
    #101
  2. Smug in Boots

    Smug in Boots Well-Known Member

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    It's clear that nerves are jingling and jangling <laugh>

    Ironically Swansea, who have absolutely nothing to play for have the best form in the Championship ...

    ... perhaps even the world <laugh>

     
    #102
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  3. CR17

    CR17 Well-Known Member

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    #103
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  4. LD19SAFC

    LD19SAFC Well-Known Member

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    Group chats are as busy as they’ve been all season. Already a few arguments about Wembley plans

    Roll on :1980_boogie_down:
     
    #104
  5. Smug in Boots

    Smug in Boots Well-Known Member

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    It’s amazing how easily people are absolutely convinced with little or no information …

    … where were all these people when I was selling cars <laugh>
     
    #105
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  6. CR17

    CR17 Well-Known Member

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    Not sure if this is in response about Bradley or the lad replying to him. But if it's bradley, he gets a lot of injury information and is nigh on always right when he posts it. But I think last night was purely him talking to Mundle at the awards event.
     
    #106
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  7. APC

    APC Well-Known Member

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    I mean if Mundle feels fit now that can only be good news that they’ve decided to rest him for a few more weeks, especially if being his hamstring
     
    #107
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  8. Southern A

    Southern A Well-Known Member

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    Think Smug was referring to the person replying to Bradley saying they're "getting less convinced about Mundle"
     
    #108
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  9. Southern A

    Southern A Well-Known Member

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    I've said all along I'll be blown away if he plays in the playoffs but if he's feeling fit that's tremendous news.

    It could be that his second injury wasn't a re-injury as much as simply a minor reaction and put on ice as a concern.
     
    #109
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  10. CR17

    CR17 Well-Known Member

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    I echo this
     
    #110
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  11. APC

    APC Well-Known Member

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    Just literally putting 2 and 2 together but that sounds about right
     
    #111
  12. Southern A

    Southern A Well-Known Member

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    I'll feel more confident about it if we get photos of him training.
     
    #112
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  13. APC

    APC Well-Known Member

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    All the social media cool kids will be hammering now no doubt ;)
     
    #113
  14. SourPatch2

    SourPatch2 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah 100% this. I actually think it's our biggest game(s) since the League Cup final against City, perhaps bigger.
     
    #114
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  15. CR17

    CR17 Well-Known Member

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    https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/com...orm_team_entering_the_championship/?rdt=44151


    Is the most in-form team entering the Championship Play-Offs the most likely to be promoted to the Premier League?
    For the longest time I have had the theory that the team that the most in-form coming into the Championship Play-Offs is the side who gets promoted. I’ve spoken about it as if it were gospel in the pub and almost certainly lost money gambling on said in-form teams.

    Having banged on about it for years, I decided to finally do the research and find out - is the most in-form team entering the Championship Play-Offs the most likely to be promoted to the Premier League?

    Before we plunge into the statistics, what does in-form actually mean? Well, I’ve broken it down into the following:

    Most in-form = the team which has gained the most points over the 6 games previous to the Play-Offs

    In form = the team gained at least 10 points from their previous 18 available (6 games)

    Not in form = the team gained less than 10 points from their previous 18 games (6 games)

    Also, the football league Championship division was established in the 2004/05 season following the re-brand from the old First Division, representing the modern era of the second tier. So the data set will run from the inaugural season to modern day.

    What does this show?

    Well, as it turns out, it was mostly bollocks. My theory, a lie, my reputation, in ruins. Apart from a four season streak in the mid-2010s (where I largely began this ideology) there is no real correlation between the most in-form team and being promoted to the Premier League.

    The breakdown is as follows:

    Promoted as most in-form = 6 teams

    Promoted as in-form = 8 teams

    Promoted as not in-form = 5 teams

    Form does matter, as you can see above. In 14 of the 19 Championship seasons teams in form have been promoted to the Premier League. This, whilst mildly interesting, makes perfect (and common) sense, as you obviously have to hold a decent enough points record to make the play-offs in the first place. 53 of the 76 teams to have reached this stage of the season were in-form, equal to 69% (oooooooh matron!!).

    Captain Obvious here again. Moreso than form, league position tends to indicate who will be promoted. The side who finished 3rd (expectedly) go up almost 50% of the time and the team in 6th have only been promoted twice over the years, being West Ham and Blackpool.

    The full numbers for this are:

    Promoted finishing 3rd = 9 teams

    Promoted finishing 4th = 4 teams

    Promoted finishing 5th = 4 teams

    Promoted finishing 6th = 2 teams

    Conclusions

    1. The theory of the most in-form side going up is not correct and I’m a stupid moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt smells and I like to kiss my own butt.

    2. The 3rd place team is most likely to be promoted. However the team in 3rd has only gone up without being in-form twice.

    3. Form does matter, and a side in-form is much more likely to go up than a not in-form side, but they don’t necessarily have to be the most in-form.
    What does this mean (or probably not mean) for this season’s Play Offs?

    Well can you darn well believe it? This is the first time in any modern season that every side in the Play-Offs is out of form, picking up lower than 10 points over the last 6 games.

    Leeds = 4/18

    Southampton = 9/18

    West Bromwich Albion = 7/18

    Norwich = 9/18

    So the most in-form sides are Southampton and Norwich, but regardless of who goes up, a non in-form team will ascend to the Premier League. This would in theory make Leeds the favourite given their league position of 3rd place, but they are also the least in-form side the Championship Play-Offs have ever witnessed, picking up one fewer point in the last 6 games than Watford in 07/08 and Middlesbrough in 22/23.

    I would therefore lean to Southampton being the pick of the bunch, given they are the most on-form and have the higher league position, but we are truly in unprecedented waters - wow guys how exciting!

    Regardless, take from this my wise words - theories you develop in your head are not gospel, be it about VAR or individual players or form, we are all subject to being darn silly billies every now and again. Enjoy the Play-Offs, hopefully they’re as drama-packed as we’ve become accustomed to.




    ---- Interesting read
     
    #115
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  16. Southern A

    Southern A Well-Known Member

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    Feels like more riding on it this time than the Mowbray time. Because this feels like a "generational opportunity" to get promoted and be able to develop world class talent ourselves. Jobe, Rigg, Neil, Mayenda. If they all stay and develop, we could have built a team for the ages. And will mean we can focus spend on other areas.

    Of course not saying this is a generational opportunity for promotion, more than it feels like all the stars are aligning nicely to have a real good shot next year if we do go up.
     
    #116
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  17. LD19SAFC

    LD19SAFC Well-Known Member

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    Will lad <laugh> Currently banned for throwing a pie at Boro away…
     
    #117
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  18. FellTop

    FellTop Well-Known Member

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    Just been in the latest masterpiece by RTB. Posting and thinking.

    Do you know what? I feel so bloody confident now. I work in Sheffield and mainly with the United lot. They are flat. Really flat. I am so behind our lads it makes me burst with pride.

    Let me list the players that run through my head, as I drift off to sleep at night.

    Patterson
    Hume
    Mepham
    Onien
    Neil
    Jobe
    Rigg
    Le Fee
    Roberts
    Mayenda
    Mundle
    Isidor
    Cirkin
    Ballard
    Watson
    Samed
    Jones

    I think we are strong. Across the park. And I think we will be hungry. I cant bloody wait.

    And a small indulgence, please. I have been a Neil fan forever. I have loved every minute of his first team career. I have defended and celebrated him. I think he has so much about him. If he gets to lift the play off trophy, for his club and ours, I will cry a bloody river out of sheer pride.

    Haway me bonny lads.
     
    #118
  19. Snaggey

    Snaggey Well-Known Member

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    Great post mate, and couldn't agree more.
    <applause><applause><applause>
     
    #119
  20. Essayyeffcee

    Essayyeffcee Well-Known Member

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    Pack it in! You'll get me started next! I blubbered like a kid when we won the last time

    For me we have so much to be proud of this season. The players that have come from the academy and I include Watson in that, the way Reggie had us playing this season - especially at the start of the season. The way the likes of Mayenda, Jobe and Rigg have come on, Hume on the second half of the season. The goals both Mayenda and Wilson but for me the best performance of the season was Boro away. Yes, we've had good games against Burnley and Sheff Ute, spells against Leeds but for me that was the best
     
    #120
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2025
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