OK Toby I'll take this at face value. Basically 31/12/2020, 31/12/2025, 31/12/2030 and 31/12/2050 the UK will most likely exist as a country with a population of more or less 70 million people. The quality of life for those people, and their aspirations for future generations, will depend on the situation at the time.
I never claimed everyone would die and the country would be in ruins. I just said my future is jeopardised, don't you agree? Apart from a handful of fruitloops there are no economists that predict a positive outcome from any form of Brexit, even the softest Brexit possible. Of course it's impossible to predict the future, and saying anything negative about Brexit instantly gets you a 'PROJECT FEAR' response.
At the moment there are indications that the EU is heading towards uncharted territory with numerous unconnected problems arising in parallel. For example:
- In Spain a far right party has gone from being a joke to gaining 11 regional elected government members and has gone from zero to 11.5% in national polls in less than 6 months. Add that to other lurches to the right throughout the EU.
- The French have sustained demonstrations leading to death, injuries, and damage to property and national monuments. You may say the French have always demonstrated. But it isn't often that the demonstrators are rewarded with concessions. What message does this send to other disgruntled people in other EU countries? And there is a real economical cost to these events.
- The Euro, as what many see as a failed experiment has run out of steam. While the PIIGS countries had many people with property they could be fed cheap credit and enticed to buy German exports. That has ended and now we see a drop in German growth and few obvious markets to sustain the German manufacturing machine.
- The EU, and Germany in particular, has allowed a large influx of Muslims. The impact of this is yet to be seen beyond the response of the growth of the right, and the reintroduction of some borders. Agreed many muslim immigrants are innocent sheep, but bearing in mind they are indoctrinated to believe the after-life holds bigger sway than this one, and that non-believers and LBGT people deserve serious penalties, they sit in communities as ticking time bombs.
- The level of corruption and the hidden bank debts of many Mediterranean countries could be another ticking time bomb.
Whether all or any of these issues becomes serious over the next 5 to 20 years remains to be seen but it is obvious that if the worst happens the UK would be better off out of the EU.
How would the UK be better off out of the EU in any of those scenarios? The EU are our biggest trading partners, if they suffer we suffer. The initial economic hit we'll take from Brexit would just make an EU crisis affect our economy even more. Anti-EU people have been predicting the fall of the EU for decades now, superhorns has a weekly update about it, all I know is that the EU will outlive all of us.
At the moment the UK imports far more products from the EU than we export to it. Being out of the EU would allow the UK to move to a position of greater self-sufficiency. Under WTO rules cars manufactured in the UK would be more attractive economically than those imported from the EU. That means those companies with manufacturing in the UK will have an advantage. On the other end of the scale the supermarkets could buy from a far wider number of countries without paying the EU for the privilege of buying from EU countries. We can return to world markets to buy cheap food in particular, outside the Common Agricultural Policy.
And how, for example, would the parts needed for these cars be imported? Have you not read about all the concerned car manufacturers saying it would be a terrible idea and would serious affect their production lines? The current government can't even organise a traffic jam in Kent, do you think they would be able to oversee the complete rebuilding of our manufacturing sector in a couple of months? The reason we trade so much with the EU is that they're our neighbours, it makes sense to trade with them. We already import food from all over the world, from fruit to meat, the EU doesn't stop us doing so. Unless you think we're going to be signing free trade deals with Morocco to get 20p off the price of a box of strawberries.
While in theory the EU, as a large trading block should be able to negotiate free trade deals they have frequently failed to do so. Yet before the UK is out of the EU, countries are forming a queue for a UK free trade deal. The UK may end up in a far better global trading position on its own.
Sorry, which queue is this? All I've heard is Liam Fox talking about wonderful trade deals, I've not seen any proof of this so far. Any trade deals we make will also involve negative sides to it, good luck appeasing the Leavers with a free movement agreement with India. Also we'd lose our EU services passport, the City, whose taxes keep this country afloat, will be seriously affected. Also this 'trade deal' stuff is misunderstood nonsense. The negative consequences of leaving the EU will outweigh any potential benefits we would see from these fantastical free trade deals. Unless you mean the US, which would spell the end for the NHS and our food quality standards, thus stopping us from trading food with the EU.
And to add to that do not forget that the UK contains a substantial well off population. Just to offer one statistic. Inside the EU we share an average unemployment rate of 7.9%. Outside it is 4.2%.
And the highest level of personal debt in all the EU and most of the western world (if not all of it, can't remember the exact stats). With wage stagnation, an exorbitant cost of living and unaffordable housing.
There are many other stats to illustrate that the UK will have little trouble attracting investment. Here three of actual examples:
- "Vancouver venture capital firm Chrysalix and Japanese VC group Global Brain will both open European HQs in the UK, and respectively invest up to £110 million in AI and robotics and £35 million in deep-tech start-ups in the country." April 26 2018.
- And while this for example is UK to UK it demonstrates what investors are after. "November 29, 2018. Novartis is on the move in the UK, relocating its national headquarters from Frimley in Surrey to London to get closer to the capital’s emerging life sciences cluster"
- And the likely move of Apple into 500,000 sq. feet of Battersea power station in 2021.
And these investments were made after the referendum.
The first line is peanuts, and we'll be losing EU grants for science and research. Good luck getting this government to match that when all they're thinking about is slashing corporation taxes.
The second line is completely irrelevant to the discussion
The third line hasn't happened yet and will probably not happen in a no deal scenario.
Fishing within territorial waters gives those in the industry a far more stable environment in which to invest. The Petershead fishermen do not need to be told by the EU the importance of sustainable herring fishing, but when they see quotas going to Spanish boats, who send the fish to a subsidised market (fish is far cheaper in Spain than in the UK, even in Madrid 200 miles from the nearest coast), no wonder they cannot accept job losses and laid-up boats. And bear in mind that jobs created in agriculture and fishing will largely be in the most deprived areas.
Oh the fish!!! Let's not forget the fish!!! Farage's favourite line pre-referendum. UK fisherman already sell their fishing rights, they don't use their allocated quotas. The fishing stocks are depleted and the industry is worth peanuts. Finance or fishing? I think Finance might be slightly more important to keep rather than a few hundred fisherman.
There is talk by remainers that the UK needs immigrants. But outside the UK we can determine where they come from, what qualifications they have, and how many. Being out of the EU does not mean we cannot attract EU immigrants. It just means we have a bigger choice.
Who is stopping non-EU migration at the moment? We don't use the current systems in place to stop EU migration for people without employment. Our population is lazy and not qualified enough to fill the current jobs on the market.
I could go on. And yes we could debate each point, and we could discuss the benefits of the EU. But to say there are no benefits from Brexit is just crazy. As would the vice-versa case be.
I by the way have no extreme view one way or the other. I believe Brexit or no Brexit can be made a success. The issue I have is that once a decision is made we need to push on and make a success of it. Yes we need to give the supporters of the rejected position a while to get over it but once it is done those who sit around crying will be the losers.
You live in Spain, having enjoyed your right of free movement. I'm losing that now, you have to live in France for 5 years prior to applying for residency. Both my little brothers will be affected also. Your last line is pathetic. Crying? Leavers have been whingeing for the last few decades about it, yet being against leaving the EU makes me a crying loser? Cheers.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
.