Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 12th. March 2024

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So far I'm looking at:

Supreme - Tullyhill or Mystical Power (tending towards Tullyhill)
Arkle - Very tricky race, but I did notice Quilixios is a previous festival winner. JPR One is a lovely horse but probably a few pounds short of winning this. Mullins runners don't seem to be absolute top notch. My Mate Mozzie course C&D winner. Still no wiser <laugh>
Ultima - Crebilly has been smashed up for the Plate which must surely mean that Trelawne can go very close here. Excellent 3rd to Ginny's Destiny and Grey Dawning in December here (Crebilly behind) which is smart novice form and if the step up brings about improvement he can win this.
Champion Hurdle - State Man. EOS.
Mares Hurdle - Lossiemouth. EOS. Lantry Lady e/w.
Fred Winter - Liari is my initial pick but need to study more. Maybe Nara.
NH Chase - Apple Away

Just posting these now as I will change my mind a dozen times before 1.30 on Tuesday
 
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A strong trend in recent years for the Ultima winner has been "previously ran well in the race"

2023 winner Corach Rambler obviously won the year before
2021 winner Vintage Clouds was 8th in 2020, 2nd in 2019 and 3rd in 2018
2019 winner Beware The Bear was 4th in 2018
2017 winner Un Temps Pour Tout won the year before

There is also a strong trend on previous Cheltenham form generally with only The conditional in 2020 having won on his first visit to Cheltenham in ages.

In this year's field there are 2 horses who ran well in last year's renewal - Monbeg Genius (3rd, 7lbs higher this year) and The Goffer (4th, 2lbs lower this year) and The Goffer has been really well supported. I just don't like either of these though - I can't back anything Jonjo trains and the Irish have a terrible record in the race.

In fact, if you put a line through the Irish runners (dangerous I know) then there aren't too many potential winners of the race. Eldorado Allen should give Freddie Gingell a great spin and of the two Kim Bailey horses I prefer Trelawne (won over 3 miles over hurdles on testing ground) to Chianti Classico (majority of form on better ground). Henderson's Excello has possibilities but the yard form puts me off and of Venetia's pair Victtorino would need to get back to his very best to compete here.
 
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Struggling between Mystical Power and Firefox for the Supreme. Not keen on the hood going on first time for MP, the stronger run race would help settling but looks a beast of a horse. Firefox back to 2m should suit but never ideal on the back of a poor run.
 
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My bets Day 1

Supreme
Mistergif 33/1 e/w
Arkle
Quilixios 7/1
(Marine Nationale 4/1 NR)
Ultima
Eldorado Allen 25/1 e/w
(Theatre Man 12/1 e/w NRNB)
Champion Hurdle
No bet
Mares Hurdle
Ashroe Diamond 8/1
Boodles
Ndaawi 8/1
National Hunt Chase
Salvador Ziggy 12/1 e/w
(Maxxum 25/1 e/w NR)

Good luck everyone.
 
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Pilgrim said:
My bets Day 1

Supreme
Mistergif 33/1 e/w
Arkle
Quilixios 7/1
(Marine Nationale 4/1 NR)
Ultima
Eldorado Allen 25/1 e/w
(Theatre Man 12/1 e/w NRNB)
Champion Hurdle
No bet
Mares Hurdle
Ashroe Diamond 8/1
Boodles
Ndaawi 8/1
National Hunt Chase
Salvador Ziggy 12/1 e/w
(Maxxum 25/1 e/w NR)

Good luck everyone.
Click to expand...

Pilgrim, who on earth is offering 33/1 on Mistergif- I took 11/1 yesterday?
 
Daryl Jacob has three good mounts tomorrow for Munir and Souede…
1.30 Mistergif 11/1
2.10 Hunters Yarn 11/2
4.50 Batman Girac 9/1
Paddy Power prices and all three have excellent each way chances. Worth an each way patent bet.
 
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Tamerlo said:
Daryl Jacob has three good mounts tomorrow for Munir and Souede…
1.30 Mistergif 11/1
2.10 Hunters Yarn 11/2
4.50 Batman Girac 9/1
Paddy Power prices and all three have excellent each way chances. Worth an each way patent bet.
Click to expand...
The only problem I have with the Patent bet (in general) is that there has to be a winner at odds greater than 7/1 to make a profit (assuming a win patent). One winner should see you OK though with those selections
 
Tamerlo said:
Pilgrim, who on earth is offering 33/1 on Mistergif- I took 11/1 yesterday?
Click to expand...

I'm at work but I'm going to eat at home where I have my bets, I'll check the date of the bet and I'll tell you this afternoon.
 
Nemean Lion ew @ 28/1 in the Champion Hurdle. I had this one AP ew in the Stayers but has ended up going here, I suspect due to Consitution Hill’s runny hooter. I can see why connections have opted for this as it looks very open outside the red hot fav who is clearly very good but no CH. I certainly can’t understand how Iberico Lord is 1/3 of NL’s price. Other bets:
Hail Mary ew L31: NL, Tullyhill, Quixilios, Busselton, An Bradan Feasa

Love Envoi EW 14/1
Lord Du Mesnil EW 40/1
Good luck everyone
 
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Having a go at each race

13.30 Mystical Power (but no longer the EW bet value)
14.10 Gaelic Warrior
14.50 Meetingofthewaters
15.30 State Man (Nodded off trying to find something to beat him)
16.10 Lossiemouth
16.50 Liari
17.30 Embassy Gardens
 
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Looking forward to kicking off tomorrow. Few picks tomorrow

1.30: Mystical Power 7/2 (win), Jeriko Du Reponet 13/2 (ew)
2.10: JPR One 9/1 ew
2.50: Stumpton 10/1 ew
3.30: State Man
4.10: Lossiemouth
4.50: Latin Verse 14/1 , Bright Legend 20/1 all ew
5.00: Embassy Gardens 2/1 win
 
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